Orcas High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.41 (fleet 2.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–34 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 11–10 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 1–1 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 11–9 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 10–10 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | skipper | 1.99 | 2.51 | 7–6 | 5.8 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2016-04-30 | SSP Team Race - GOLD | skipper | 1.90 | 0.63 | 3–4 | 4.3 | −1.27 | 0.9 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Team Race - GOLD | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Olympia Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 2.70 |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 1.58 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 1.35 |
| NWISA Doublehanded District Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 1.64 |
| Bainbridge Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Orcas Trick or Treat | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 1.04 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | A | 10 | 21.3 | -1.98 |
| Port Townsend Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 1.58 |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 2.03 |
| Mt. Baker Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 0.64 |
| NWISA Kick Off | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.8 | 0.48 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.6 | 1.06 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 0.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
