NWISA Team Race Championship

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 756 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 72 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.443 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Bainbridge High School Gold	1	6.33 school −0.33	Blake Bentzen / William Brown Jackson Mccoy / Hannah Harrison 2.31 17–1 Stasi Burzycki / Nicole Sanford 2.18 13–1 Stasi Burzycki / Nicholas Dresel 2.16 7–0 Jackson Mccoy / Joshua Rentz 2.11 3–0	85%	20–1 (95%)	+2.1
2	Woodinville High School Falcons	4	4.14 school −0.17	Adam Didomizio / Nathan Finger 1.54 Connor Hughes / Megan Didomizio 1.28 Karl Skeel / Erik Skeel 8–6 Erik Skeel / Karl Skeel 1.49 6–1	49%	14–7 (67%)	+3.8
3	Sehome High School Mariners	2	5.17 school +0.70	Shea Walker / Peyton Nienaber Liam Hood / Quinn Shultis Jeffrey Werner / Mallory Hood	67%	12–9 (57%)	−2.1
4	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals	3	4.54 school −0.32	Drew Bennett / Mia Dalton 1.76 Matthew Reynolds / Ian Stewart 1.72 Gavin Ross / Rebecca Reynolds	55%	10–11 (48%)	−1.5
5	Orcas High School Vikings	5	3.38 school −0.35	Quinn Freedman / Jadyn Kopp 0.95 Axel Greening / Kajetan Bullock Wylie Kau / Matia Schwartz 1.33	40%	11–9 (55%)	+3.0
6	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	7	2.13	Max Van Dam / Amanda Stratton 3–8 Jordan Wood-Pina / Matt Dixon 3–8 Austin Hauter / Dylan Angell 3–8 Max Van Dam / Dylan Angell 0–9 Jordan Wood-Pina / Matt Hallahan 0–9 Austin Hauter / Shawn O'Connor 0–9	19%	3–17 (15%)	−0.8
7	Anacortes High School Seahawks	6	2.91 school +0.06	Kian Patrick / Devanne Jager 1.27 Heather Rolph / Julia Soes 0.98 Liam Patrick / Wesley Bone 0.29	32%	2–18 (10%)	−4.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Bainbridge High School	6.33	7.98	20–1	17.9	+1.65	1.6	16%
2	Woodinville High School	4.14	5.40	14–7	10.2	+1.25	2.6	5%
5	Orcas High School	3.38	4.38	11–9	8.0	+1.01	1.7	10%
6	Oak Harbor High School	2.13	1.73	3–17	3.8	−0.40	0.2	78%
4	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	4.54	4.05	10–11	11.5	−0.48	0.4	85%
3	Sehome High School	5.17	4.49	12–9	14.1	−0.68	0.8	91%
7	Anacortes High School	2.91	0.77	2–18	6.5	−2.13	4.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Stasi Burzycki	Bainbridge High School	2.18	3.83	20–1	17.9	+1.65	1.6	16%
Blake Bentzen	Bainbridge High School	1.97	3.61	20–1	17.9	+1.65	1.6	16%
Adam Didomizio	Woodinville High School	1.54	2.79	14–7	10.2	+1.25	2.6	5%
Quinn Freedman	Orcas High School	0.95	1.96	11–9	8.0	+1.01	1.7	10%
Axel Greening	Orcas High School	1.16	2.17	11–9	8.0	+1.01	1.7	10%
Wylie Kau	Orcas High School	1.33	2.33	11–9	8.0	+1.01	1.7	10%
Austin Hauter	Oak Harbor High School	0.41	0.01	3–17	3.8	−0.40	0.2	78%
Drew Bennett	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	1.76	1.28	10–11	11.5	−0.48	0.4	85%
Gavin Ross	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	0.82	0.34	10–11	11.5	−0.48	0.4	85%
Jeffrey Werner	Sehome High School	1.53	0.84	12–9	14.1	−0.68	0.8	91%
Heather Rolph	Anacortes High School	0.98	-1.16	2–18	6.5	−2.13	4.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
2		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
3		Falcons	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
4		Mariners	1-3-5	def.		Seahawks	2-4-6
5		Gold	2-3-4	def.		Cardinals	1-5-6
6		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Wildcats	3-4-5
7		Mariners	1-3-6	def.		Falcons	2-4-5
8		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
9		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
10		Falcons	1-3-4	def.		Vikings	2-5-6
11		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Mariners	3-5-6
12		Seahawks	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
13		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Cardinals	1-5-6
14		Mariners	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6
15		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
16		Falcons	1-3-4	def.		Seahawks	2-5-6
17		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Vikings	4-5-6
18		Mariners	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
19		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
20		Vikings	1-3-6	def.		Seahawks	2-4-5
21		Mariners	2-3-5	def.		Cardinals	1-4-6
66		Vikings	2-3-4	def.		Seahawks	1-5-6
69		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
72		Wildcats	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
22		Cardinals	1-3-5	def.		Seahawks	2-4-6
23		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
24		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Wildcats	3-5-6
25		Mariners	1-2-5	def.		Seahawks	3-4-6
26		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Cardinals	3-5-6
27		Vikings	2-3-4	def.		Wildcats	1-5-6
28		Mariners	1-3-4	def.		Falcons	2-5-6
29		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
30		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
31		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Vikings	4-5-6
32		Gold	2-3-4	def.		Mariners	1-5-6
33		Seahawks	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
34		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Cardinals	3-4-5
35		Vikings	2-3-5	def.		Mariners	1-4-6
36		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
37		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
38		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6
39		Wildcats	1-4-5	def.		Mariners	2-3-6
40		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Falcons	3-5-6
41		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
42		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
43		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
44		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
45		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
46		Mariners	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
47		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
48		Vikings	1-3-4	def.		Wildcats	2-5-6
49		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Mariners	1-5-6 DNF
50		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
51		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Wildcats	3-5-6
52		Vikings	1-3-6	def.		Falcons	2-4-5
53		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Mariners	4-5-6
54		Wildcats	1-2-5	def.		Seahawks	3-4-6
55		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Cardinals	3-4-5
56		Vikings	1-4-5	def.		Mariners	2-3-6
57		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
58		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
59		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Vikings	1-5-6
60		Mariners	1-3-4	def.		Wildcats	2-5-6
61		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Falcons	3-4-6
62		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
63		Mariners	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
64		Mariners	2-3-5	def.		Falcons	1-4-6
65		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Cardinals	3-5-6
67		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Cardinals	1-5-6
68		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
70		Mariners	1-3-4	def.		Cardinals	2-5-6
71		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Gold	3-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Bainbridge High School	Gold	Blake Bentzen '16 Jackson Mccoy '15 Stasi Burzycki '15	William Brown '15 Hannah Harrison '15 Joshua Rentz '15 Nicholas Dresel '15 Nicole Sanford '16
	Woodinville High School	Falcons	Adam Didomizio '15 Connor Hughes '15 Erik Skeel '16 Karl Skeel '16	Nathan Finger '15 Megan Didomizio '17 Karl Skeel '16 Erik Skeel '16
	Sehome High School	Mariners	Jeffrey Werner '16 Liam Hood '16 Shea Walker '16	Mallory Hood '18 Quinn Shultis '16 Peyton Nienaber '18
	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	Drew Bennett '15 Gavin Ross '16 Matthew Reynolds '16	Mia Dalton '18 Rebecca Reynolds '17 Ian Stewart '17
	Orcas High School	Vikings	Axel Greening '17 Quinn Freedman '15 Wylie Kau '16	Kajetan Bullock '18 Jadyn Kopp '18 Matia Schwartz '17
	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Austin Hauter '17 Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Max Van Dam '16	Dylan Angell '18 Shawn O'Connor '17 Matt Dixon '17 Matt Hallahan '16 Amanda Stratton '17
	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	Heather Rolph '17 Kian Patrick '16 Liam Patrick '18	Julia Soes '17 Devanne Jager '17 Wesley Bone '17