Anacortes High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–34 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 9–23 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 3–11 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race Districts | skipper | 1.09 | 0.12 | 3–11 | 4.8 | −0.98 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | -0.14 |
| NWISA Doublehanded Districts | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | -0.84 |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.03 |
| Island Cup Gold | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.1 | 1.31 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Olympia Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.0 | 0.43 |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 1.08 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.8 | -0.24 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Silverdale Team Race JV | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.8 | 0.98 |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.6 | 0.20 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.9 | 0.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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