| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Wilson High School | Trojans | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Nikola Tesla STEM High School | Engineers | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 440 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 42 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.672 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilson High School | 2.98 | 5.98 | 12–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.0 | <1% |
| 5 | Port Angeles High School | 0.60 | 2.16 | 5–7 | 2.2 | +1.56 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 4 | Nikola Tesla STEM High School | 1.83 | 2.41 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 3 | Anacortes High School | 2.49 | 2.78 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2 | Olympia High School | 3.17 | 3.09 | 8–4 | 8.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 6 | Ingraham High School | 2.68 | 0.67 | 3–9 | 6.9 | −2.01 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 7 | Bellingham High School | 2.29 | -1.03 | 1–11 | 5.9 | −3.32 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Reed | Wilson High School | 1.55 | 4.55 | 12–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.0 | <1% |
| Orrick Waddell | Port Angeles High School | 0.57 | 2.14 | 5–7 | 2.2 | +1.56 | 2.7 | 5% |
| Ozzy Minard | Port Angeles High School | -0.45 | 1.11 | 5–7 | 2.2 | +1.56 | 2.7 | 5% |
| Ethan Perrin | Nikola Tesla STEM High School | 0.47 | 1.04 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Isaac Perrin | Nikola Tesla STEM High School | 0.13 | 0.70 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Heather Rolph | Anacortes High School | 0.76 | 1.05 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Leo Brine | Olympia High School | 1.55 | 1.46 | 8–4 | 8.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Joe Ubelhart | Ingraham High School | 1.55 | -0.46 | 3–9 | 6.9 | −2.01 | 4.3 | >99% |
| Hannah Roy | Bellingham High School | 0.16 | -3.16 | 1–11 | 5.9 | −3.32 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Connor Mcgreevy | Bellingham High School | 1.55 | -1.77 | 1–11 | 5.9 | −3.32 | 7.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trojans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 DSQ | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-6 DSQ |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Roughriders | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Engineers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Trojans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Trojans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Roughriders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Trojans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Trojans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Engineers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Trojans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Engineers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Roughriders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 1-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Trojans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Wilson High School | Trojans | Kyle Padgett '17 Riley Reed '17 Sean Grealish '17 |
Fredric Sigfrids '15 Hanna Brush '17 Nick Stump '16 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Elena Gonick '16 Leo Brine '16 Orion Bird '18 |
Abby Larsen '17 Max Miller '18 Konrad Brine '16 |
|
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | Heather Rolph '17 Kian Patrick '16 Liam Patrick '18 |
Julia Soes '17 Devanne Jager '17 Alex Stephens '15 |
|
Nikola Tesla STEM High School | Engineers | Ethan Perrin '16 Isaac Perrin '18 Shaan Shridhar '15 |
Luke Gibbons '18 Nicolai Blasdel '17 Yumi Shridhar '16 |
|
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | Orrick Waddell '17 Ozzy Minard '23 Sierra Hunter '19 |
Elliot Dahlin '22 Sierra Hunter '19 Orrick Waddell '17 |
|
Ingraham High School | Rams | Grant Barton '16 Joe Ubelhart '18 Margot Watts '19 |
Sho Scherock-Manabe '15 Unknown Sailor '15 Marijke Jorna '16 |
|
Bellingham High School | Raiders | Connor Mcgreevy '16 Hannah Roy '17 Maia Ketteridge '17 |
Quinn Shultis '16 Lauren Whitkopf '18 Stephanie Kirker '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
