Ingraham High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.43 (fleet -0.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–11 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (5 matches) the record is 1–4 against 2.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | SSP Team Race - SILVER | skipper | -0.23 | -1.81 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.58 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 25.5 | -2.02 |
| SSP Team Race - SILVER | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race JV | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| NWISA Silverdale Team Race JV | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Crew | A | 4 | 17.2 | — |
| Mt. Baker Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 22.8 | — |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 27.5 | -1.65 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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