SSP Team Race - SILVER

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 1,892 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 13 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.71: a typical event, more orderly than 76% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	1	2.55	Olivia Mitchell / Amanda Gilmore 1.37 5–0 Harrison Saliba / Quinn Ring 5–0 Sophie Lewis / Camden Lee 0.60 4–0 Sophie Lewis / Daniel Rentz 0.52 1–0 Olivia Mitchell / Jack Sobeck 1.36 1–0 Harrison Saliba / Daniel Rentz 1–0 Sophie Lewis / Kathryn Smith 0.68 1–0	76%	6–0 (100%)	+1.4
6	Olympic High School Trojans	6	-0.19	Kimberly Hutchinson Aj Olkonen Ryan Terry	25%	2–2 (50%)	+1.0
7	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	4	1.47 school −0.07	Alyosha Strum-Palerm / Isabelle Loverich 1.85 Nicholas Jordan / Annelise Pardee 0.14 Nathan Grundmeier / Alex Ashley 1–3 Alex Ashley / Cody Cline 1–0	45%	2–3 (40%)	−0.3
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	3	0.91	Niko Twilla / Claire Jablonski Kaylee Frede / Josie Alvarado Tyler Nolasco / Shea Kuligowski	46%	1–3 (25%)	−0.8
10	Ingraham High School Rams	5	0.75 school −0.08	Max Kauffman / Emma Goss Joe Ubelhart -0.23 Reilly Hearne / Julie Tolmie 0–4 Reilly Hearne / Mahala Mrozek 1–0	43%	1–4 (20%)	−1.2
11	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	2	1.13	Roark Coggon / Camden Lee Quinn Ring / No Show Kathryn Smith / Jack Sobeck 1–0 Will Price / Jack Sobeck 0–1	57%	1–1 (50%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	2.55	5.55	6–0	4.6	≥+3.00	2.1	20%
6	Olympic High School Trojans	-0.19	1.29	2–2	1.0	+1.48	0.9	26%
7	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	1.47	1.13	2–3	2.3	−0.34	0.0	78%
11	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	1.13	0.72	1–1	1.2	−0.41	0.0	83%
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	0.91	-0.46	1–3	1.8	−1.37	0.6	93%
10	Ingraham High School Rams	0.75	-0.84	1–4	2.2	−1.58	1.0	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sophie Lewis	Bainbridge High School	0.60	3.60	6–0	4.6	≥+3.00	2.1	20%
Kimberly Hutchinson	Olympic High School	0.26	1.74	2–2	1.0	+1.48	0.9	26%
Aj Olkonen	Olympic High School	-0.49	0.99	2–2	1.0	+1.48	0.9	26%
Alyosha Strum-Palerm	North Kitsap High School	1.85	1.51	2–3	2.3	−0.34	0.0	78%
Nicholas Jordan	North Kitsap High School	0.14	-0.20	2–3	2.3	−0.34	0.0	78%
Nathan Grundmeier	North Kitsap High School	-0.80	-1.78	1–3	1.6	−0.99	0.3	90%
Kaylee Frede	Central Kitsap High School	-0.40	-1.77	1–3	1.8	−1.37	0.6	93%
Joe Ubelhart	Ingraham High School	-0.23	-1.81	1–4	2.2	−1.58	1.0	95%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Trojans	1-2-6	def.		Rams	3-4-5
2		Spartans 1	1-4-5	def.		Cougars	2-3-6
3		Spartans 2	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
4		Dogfish	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
5		Engineers	2-3-4	def.		Vikings	1-5-6
6		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Mariners V	4-5-6
7		Varsity	1-3-5	def.		Rams	2-4-6
8		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6
9		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 2	4-5-6
10		Engineers	1-3-5	def.		Dogfish	2-4-6
11		Trojans	1-4-5	def.		Cougars	2-3-6
12		Mariners V	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
13		Vikings	1-2-5 DNS	def.		Rams	3-4-6 DNS
14		Spartans 1	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
15		Engineers	2-3-5	def.		Spartans 2	1-4-6
16		Cougars	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
17		Raiders	1-2-6	def.		Trojans	3-4-5
18		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Mariners V	3-5-6
19		Spartans 2	2-3-4	def.		Rams	1-5-6
20		Engineers	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
21		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
22		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Cougars	3-4-5
23		Dogfish	1-2-6	def.		Trojans	3-4-5
24		Spartans 2	1-2-6	def.		Mariners V	3-4-5
25		Engineers	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
26		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
27		Dogfish	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
28		Spartans 2	1-4-5	def.		Cougars	2-3-6
29		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
30		Rams	1-3-4	def.		Mariners V	2-5-6
31		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
32		Spartans 2	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
33		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
34		Cougars	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
35		Engineers	1-2-3	def.		Mariners V	4-5-6
36		Spartans 2	1-4-5	def.		Dogfish	2-3-6
37		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
38		Raiders	2-3-5	def.		Rams	1-4-6 DNS
39		Cougars	1-2-4	def.		Mariners V	3-5-6
40		Engineers	1-3-4	def.		Trojans	2-5-6
41		Spartans 2	1-2-3	def.		Spartans 1	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
42		Dogfish	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
43		Raiders	1-2-5	def.		Mariners V	3-4-6
44		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Trojans	3-5-6
45		Engineers	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
46		Rams	1-2-6	def.		Spartans 1	3-4-5
47		Mariners V	1-4-5	def.		Dogfish	2-3-6
48		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Trojans	3-5-6
49		Raiders	1-4-5	def.		Cougars	2-3-6
50		Engineers	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
51		Mariners V	1-4-5	def.		Spartans 1	2-3-6
52		Spartans 2	1-2-4	def.		Trojans	3-5-6
53		Dogfish	1-2-5	def.		Cougars	3-4-6
54		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
55		Engineers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
56		Spartans 2	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6
57		Engineers	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
58		Dogfish	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
59		Spartans 2	1-2-6	def.		Engineers	3-4-5
60		Spartans 2	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
61		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Engineers	3-4-5
62		Spartans 2	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6
63		Engineers	2-3-5	def.		Dogfish	1-4-6
64		Vikings	2-3-5	def.		Dogfish	1-4-6
65		Engineers	2-3-4	def.		Spartans 2	1-5-6
66		Spartans 2	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
67		Engineers	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	Harrison Saliba '17 Olivia Mitchell '18 Quinn Ring '18 Sophie Lewis '18	Daniel Rentz '18 Quinn Ring '18 Amanda Gilmore '19 Jack Sobeck '19 Harrison Saliba '17 Kathryn Smith '17 Camden Lee '19
	Olympia High School	Varsity	Erin Pamplin '20 Evan Krug '19	Kevin Hicks '19
	Olympic High School	Trojans	Aj Olkonen '20 Kimberly Hutchinson '16 Ryan Terry '19
	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	Alex Ashley '18 Alyosha Strum-Palerm '17 Nathan Grundmeier '19 Nicholas Jordan '16	Cody Cline '17 Isabelle Loverich '19 Alex Ashley '18 Annelise Pardee '19
	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	Kaylee Frede '17 Niko Twilla '18 Tyler Nolasco '19	Josie Alvarado '16 Claire Jablonski '19 Shea Kuligowski '19
	Ingraham High School	Rams	Joe Ubelhart '17 Max Kauffman '18 Reilly Hearne '18	Emma Goss '18 Julie Tolmie '16 Mahala Mrozek '18
	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	Kathryn Smith '17 Quinn Ring '18 Roark Coggon '19 Will Price '19	Jack Sobeck '19 No Show Camden Lee '19