NWISA Team Race JV

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 756 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 42 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.547 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Bainbridge High School Blue	1	4.27 school −0.33	Caelan Juckniess / Kathryn Smith Lucas Burzycki / Sophia Kasper Arianna Fiore / Sophie Crandell	83%	12–0 (100%)	+2.0
3	Bainbridge High School Gold	4	2.27 school −0.33	Elizabeth Rolfes / Zachary Mellin 0.92 Cole Garthwaite / Francine Brownell Karl Anderson / Christoph Webber 0.84	50%	9–3 (75%)	+3.0
4	Orcas High School Vikings	3	2.65 school −0.35	Dominick Wareham / Mccabe Webb Michael Chesher / Ronan Rankin Maggie Toombs / William Coe	57%	9–3 (75%)	+2.2
5	Ingraham High School Rams	7	0.44 school −0.52	Avery Fulford / Marijke Jorna Joe Ubelhart / Max Kauffman Margot Watts / Kendall Butler 0.67	19%	5–7 (42%)	+2.7
7	Ballard High School Beavers	2	3.61	Shaan Shridhar / Yumi Shridhar 1.03 Isaac Perrin / Chris Holt Margaux Currie / Reilly Hearne	73%	4–8 (33%)	−4.8
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	6	1.08 school +0.15	Evan Lund / Everett Thompson 0.48 Keven Garrett / Alex Hosier Matt Dublynn / Dylan Diefendorf	29%	2–10 (17%)	−1.5
9	Bellingham High School Raiders	5	1.57 school −0.64	Hannah Roy / Sophia Carpenter 0.18 Chase Travers / Lauren Whitkopf Connor Mcgreevy / Maia Ketteridge 1.55	38%	1–11 (8%)	−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Bainbridge High School Blue	4.27	7.27	12–0	10.0	≥+3.00	3.0	10%
3	Bainbridge High School Gold	2.27	4.00	9–3	6.1	+1.73	2.8	5%
5	Ingraham High School Rams	0.44	2.04	5–7	2.3	+1.59	2.6	5%
4	Orcas High School Vikings	2.65	3.97	9–3	6.8	+1.31	1.5	13%
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	1.08	0.02	2–10	3.5	−1.06	0.8	92%
7	Ballard High School Beavers	3.61	0.99	4–8	8.8	−2.63	7.3	>99%
9	Bellingham High School Raiders	1.57	-1.23	1–11	4.5	−2.79	4.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lucas Burzycki	Bainbridge High School	1.52	4.52	12–0	10.0	≥+3.00	3.0	10%
Arianna Fiore	Bainbridge High School	1.25	4.25	12–0	10.0	≥+3.00	3.0	10%
Cole Garthwaite	Bainbridge High School	0.57	2.30	9–3	6.1	+1.73	2.8	5%
Karl Anderson	Bainbridge High School	0.84	2.57	9–3	6.1	+1.73	2.8	5%
Avery Fulford	Ingraham High School	0.30	1.89	5–7	2.3	+1.59	2.6	5%
Joe Ubelhart	Ingraham High School	-0.45	1.14	5–7	2.3	+1.59	2.6	5%
Dominick Wareham	Orcas High School	1.06	2.37	9–3	6.8	+1.31	1.5	13%
Michael Chesher	Orcas High School	0.77	2.08	9–3	6.8	+1.31	1.5	13%
Maggie Toombs	Orcas High School	0.75	2.06	9–3	6.8	+1.31	1.5	13%
Evan Lund	Central Kitsap High School	0.48	-0.58	2–10	3.5	−1.06	0.8	92%
Keven Garrett	Central Kitsap High School	0.31	-0.75	2–10	3.5	−1.06	0.8	92%
Matt Dublynn	Central Kitsap High School	-0.40	-1.46	2–10	3.5	−1.06	0.8	92%
Isaac Perrin	Ballard High School	1.30	-1.32	4–8	8.8	−2.63	7.3	>99%
Margaux Currie	Ballard High School	0.84	-1.79	4–8	8.8	−2.63	7.3	>99%
Hannah Roy	Bellingham High School	0.18	-2.62	1–11	4.5	−2.79	4.7	>99%
Chase Travers	Bellingham High School	0.20	-2.59	1–11	4.5	−2.79	4.7	>99%
Connor Mcgreevy	Bellingham High School	1.55	-1.25	1–11	4.5	−2.79	4.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
2		Rams	1-2-6	def.		Cougars	3-4-5
3		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
4		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
5		Trojans	1-2-6	def.		Beavers	3-4-5
6		Trojans	1-3-4	def.		Cougars	2-5-6
7		Raiders	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
8		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
9		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Trojans	3-4-5
10		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Beavers	4-5-6
11		Raiders	1-2-6	def.		Cougars	3-4-5
12		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6
13		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
14		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
15		Blue	1-2-4	def.		Beavers	3-5-6
16		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
17		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
18		Gold	1-3-4	def.		Trojans	2-5-6
19		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
20		Rams	1-2-5	def.		Beavers	3-4-6
21		Trojans	2-3-4	def.		Vikings	1-5-6
22		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
23		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
24		Rams	2-3-4	def.		Trojans	1-5-6
25		Beavers	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
26		Trojans	1-2-4	def.		Gold	3-5-6
27		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
28		Rams	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
29		Cougars	2-3-5	def.		Bulldogs	1-4-6
30		Trojans	1-3-4	def.		Beavers	2-5-6
31		Blue	1-3-5	def.		Gold	2-4-6
32		Trojans	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
33		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
34		Trojans	1-3-6	def.		Raiders	2-4-5
35		Cougars	2-4-6	def.		Beavers	1-3-5 DSQ
36		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Rams	3-4-6
37		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
38		Trojans	1-3-6	def.		Trojans	2-4-5
39		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Cougars	3-4-6
40		Beavers	2-5-6	def.		Raiders	1-3-4 DSQ
41		Rams	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
42		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6
43		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Cougars	3-5-6
44		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
45		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Beavers	4-5-6
46		Trojans	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
47		Rams	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
48		Blue	1-2-4	def.		Raiders	3-5-6
49		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Gold	3-5-6
50		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Beavers	4-5-6
51		Trojans	1-2-5	def.		Cougars	3-4-6
52		Raiders	1-3-6	def.		Bulldogs	2-4-5
53		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
54		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Trojans	3-4-6
55		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Beavers	4-5-6
56		Cougars	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
57		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Trojans	3-5-6
58		Trojans	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
59		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
60		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Beavers	4-5-6
61		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
62		Trojans	1-2-6	def.		Cougars	3-4-5
63		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Trojans	3-4-5
64		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
65		Beavers	1-3-6	def.		Rams	2-4-5
66		Trojans	1-3-4	def.		Vikings	2-5-6
67		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
68		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
69		Trojans	1-4-5	def.		Rams	2-3-6
70		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Beavers	1-5-6
71		Gold	1-3-6	def.		Trojans	2-4-5
72		Blue	2-3-4	def.		Vikings	1-5-6
73		Rams	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
74		Cougars	1-3-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-4-6
75		Beavers	1-2-6	def.		Trojans	3-4-5
76		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Gold	3-4-6
77		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
78		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
79		Trojans	1-3-4	def.		Raiders	2-5-6
80		Beavers	1-2-4	def.		Cougars	3-5-6
81		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Rams	3-4-6
82		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
83		Trojans	1-3-6	def.		Trojans	2-4-5
84		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
85		Beavers	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
86		Rams	1-3-4	def.		Bulldogs	2-5-6
87		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Trojans	3-4-6
88		Gold	2-3-4	def.		Cougars	1-5-6
89		Trojans	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
90		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Beavers	3-4-5

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Bainbridge High School	Blue	Arianna Fiore '21 Caelan Juckniess '16 Lucas Burzycki '15	Sophie Crandell '18 Kathryn Smith '17 Sophia Kasper '18
	Wilson High School	Trojans	Kendall Kracke '15	Monika Kovacs '15
	Bainbridge High School	Gold	Christoph Webber '18 Cole Garthwaite '16 Elizabeth Rolfes '17 Francine Brownell '15 Karl Anderson '16 Zachary Mellin '16	Karl Anderson '16 Francine Brownell '15 Zachary Mellin '16 Cole Garthwaite '16 Christoph Webber '18 Elizabeth Rolfes '17
	Orcas High School	Vikings	Dominick Wareham '19 Maggie Toombs '18 Michael Chesher '17	Mccabe Webb '18 William Coe '15 Ronan Rankin '19
	Ingraham High School	Rams	Avery Fulford '17 Joe Ubelhart '17 Margot Watts '19	Marijke Jorna '16 Max Kauffman '18 Kendall Butler '18
	Ballard High School	Beavers	Isaac Perrin '17 Margaux Currie '15 Shaan Shridhar '15	Chris Holt '17 Reilly Hearne '17 Yumi Shridhar '16
	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	Evan Lund '15 Keven Garrett '15 Matt Dublynn '18	Everett Thompson '19 Alex Hosier '17 Dylan Diefendorf '16
	Bellingham High School	Raiders	Chase Travers '17 Connor Mcgreevy '16 Hannah Roy '17	Lauren Whitkopf '18 Maia Ketteridge '17 Sophia Carpenter '17