NWISA Team Race Districts

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 3,374 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 62 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 63% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Orcas High School Vikings	1	5.25 school +0.13	Axel Greening / Millie Kau 1.60 Dominick Wareham / Matia Schwartz 1.95 Maggie Toombs / Sandy Rost 1.59 11–2 Michael Chesher / Maggie Toombs 1.22 3–1	80%	14–3 (82%)	+0.4
2	Olympia High School Bears	3	4.13 school −0.07	Erin Pamplin / Kevin Hicks Max Miller / Evan Krug 1.38 Owen Timms / Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson 1.73	61%	13–4 (76%)	+2.7
3	Bainbridge High School Spartans	2	4.44 school +0.14	Sophia Kasper / Max Doane 1.49 Elizabeth Rolfes / Clayton Marsh 1.47 11–3 Olivia Mitchell / Amanda Gilmore 1.35 7–4 Olivia Mitchell / Harrison Saliba 1.37 4–0 Elizabeth Rolfes / Harrison Saliba 1.52 1–2 Amanda Gilmore / Harrison Saliba 1–1	66%	12–5 (71%)	+0.8
4	Sehome High School Mariners	5	3.61 school +0.56	Lera Anders / Maia Ketteridge Colby Antico / Peyton Nienaber Cedric Keneipp / Mallory Hood	51%	8–9 (47%)	−0.6
5	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	4	3.27	Dylan Angell / Matt Dixon Jordan Wood-Pina / Piper Fisher 1.36 Austin Hauter / Willa Weinsheimer 1.21 5–3 Austin Hauter / Ella Langrock 1.22 2–4	52%	7–7 (50%)	−0.3
6	Anacortes High School Seahawks	6	2.42 school −0.26	Heather Rolph / Julia Soes 1.09 Christopher Warmuth / Anna Morrow Liam Patrick / Satone Haratani 0.66	34%	3–11 (21%)	−1.8
6	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	8	1.53 school −0.33	Anna Sherry / Alaina Marcotte 0.73 Julia Sherry / Isabelle Loverich Morgan Chapman / Cole Fox 0.52	20%	3–11 (21%)	+0.2
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	7	1.72 school +0.11	Niko Twilla / Kaylee Frede 1.12 Tyler Nolasco / Travis Bouck 0.46 Isabelle Wheeler / Shea Kuligowski -0.22 1–7 Shea Kuligowski / Rebekah Arvila 0.07 1–5	24%	2–12 (14%)	−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Olympia High School	4.13	5.27	13–4	10.3	+1.14	1.6	11%
3	Bainbridge High School	4.44	4.76	12–5	11.2	+0.31	0.1	45%
1	Orcas High School	5.25	5.46	14–3	13.6	+0.21	0.0	55%
6	North Kitsap High School	1.53	1.67	3–11	2.8	+0.14	0.0	56%
5	Oak Harbor High School	3.27	3.13	7–7	7.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
4	Sehome High School	3.61	3.38	8–9	8.6	−0.23	0.1	73%
8	Central Kitsap High School	1.72	0.78	2–12	3.3	−0.94	0.7	90%
6	Anacortes High School	2.42	1.45	3–11	4.8	−0.98	0.9	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Max Miller	Olympia High School	1.38	2.52	13–4	10.3	+1.14	1.6	11%
Maggie Toombs	Orcas High School	1.59	2.17	11–2	10.2	+0.58	0.3	43%
Sophia Kasper	Bainbridge High School	1.49	1.80	12–5	11.2	+0.31	0.1	45%
Axel Greening	Orcas High School	1.60	1.81	14–3	13.6	+0.21	0.0	55%
Dominick Wareham	Orcas High School	1.95	2.16	14–3	13.6	+0.21	0.0	55%
Anna Sherry	North Kitsap High School	0.73	0.87	3–11	2.8	+0.14	0.0	56%
Morgan Chapman	North Kitsap High School	0.52	0.66	3–11	2.8	+0.14	0.0	56%
Isabelle Wheeler	Central Kitsap High School	-0.22	-0.23	1–7	1.0	−0.01	0.0	66%
Dylan Angell	Oak Harbor High School	0.64	0.50	7–7	7.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
Austin Hauter	Oak Harbor High School	1.21	1.07	7–7	7.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
Colby Antico	Sehome High School	0.74	0.51	8–9	8.6	−0.23	0.1	73%
Michael Chesher	Orcas High School	1.22	0.26	3–1	3.4	−0.96	0.2	91%
Heather Rolph	Anacortes High School	1.09	0.12	3–11	4.8	−0.98	0.9	93%
Christopher Warmuth	Anacortes High School	0.73	-0.25	3–11	4.8	−0.98	0.9	93%
Shea Kuligowski	Central Kitsap High School	0.07	-1.53	1–5	2.3	−1.60	1.1	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Wildcats	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
2		Bears	1-3-5	def.		Cougars	2-4-6
3		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Spartans	3-4-5
4		Mariners	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
5		Dogfish	2-3-5	def.		Cougars	1-4-6
6		Wildcats	1-4-5	def.		Spartans	2-3-6
7		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Mariners	3-5-6
8		Vikings	2-3-5	def.		Seahawks	1-4-6
9		Spartans	1-2-4	def.		Cougars	3-5-6
10		Mariners	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
11		Wildcats	1-2-5	def.		Vikings	3-4-6
12		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
13		Spartans	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
14		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
15		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Dogfish	3-4-5
16		Wildcats	1-2-5	def.		Seahawks	3-4-6
17		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Mariners	3-5-6
18		Bears	1-3-5	def.		Spartans	2-4-6
19		Cougars	2-3-4	def.		Wildcats	1-5-6
20		Dogfish	1-3-5	def.		Seahawks	2-4-6
21		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6
22		Mariners	1-3-6	def.		Wildcats	2-4-5
23		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
24		Seahawks	1-2-4	def.		Cougars	3-5-6
25		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Wildcats	3-5-6
26		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
27		Mariners	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
28		Spartans	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
29		Wildcats	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
30		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
31		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Spartans	3-4-6
32		Mariners	1-3-5	def.		Seahawks	2-4-6
33		Dogfish	1-3-6	def.		Cougars	2-4-5
34		Spartans	1-3-6	def.		Wildcats	2-4-5 DSQ
35		Mariners	1-3-6	def.		Bears	2-4-5
36		Vikings	2-3-5	def.		Seahawks	1-4-6
37		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
38		Mariners	2-3-4	def.		Dogfish	1-5-6
39		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
40		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
41		Spartans	2-3-4	def.		Mariners	1-5-6
42		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Cougars	4-5-6
43		Bears	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
44		Seahawks	1-2-4	def.		Wildcats	3-5-6
45		Vikings	2-3-4	def.		Mariners	1-5-6
46		Bears	1-2-5	def.		Spartans	3-4-6
47		Wildcats	1-3-4	def.		Cougars	2-5-6
48		Seahawks	1-2-6	def.		Dogfish	3-4-5
49		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
50		Wildcats	1-2-6	def.		Mariners	3-4-5
51		Spartans	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
52		Cougars	2-3-4	def.		Seahawks	1-5-6
53		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Wildcats	3-4-5
54		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
55		Mariners	1-2-6	def.		Cougars	3-4-5
56		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
57		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Bears	4-5-6
58		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Mariners	3-5-6
59		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Mariners	3-5-6
60		Spartans	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
61		Spartans	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
62		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Orcas High School	Vikings	Axel Greening '17 Dominick Wareham '19 Maggie Toombs '18 Michael Chesher '17	Millie Kau '19 Matia Schwartz '17 Sandy Rost '17 Maggie Toombs '18
	Olympia High School	Bears	Erin Pamplin '20 Max Miller '18 Owen Timms '19	Kevin Hicks '19 Evan Krug '19 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '17
	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Amanda Gilmore '19 Elizabeth Rolfes '17 Olivia Mitchell '18 Sophia Kasper '18	Harrison Saliba '17 Clayton Marsh '20 Amanda Gilmore '19 Max Doane '20
	Sehome High School	Mariners	Cedric Keneipp '19 Colby Antico '18 Lera Anders '18	Mallory Hood '18 Peyton Nienaber '18 Maia Ketteridge '17
	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Austin Hauter '17 Dylan Angell '18 Jordan Wood-Pina '18	Willa Weinsheimer '20 Ella Langrock '20 Matt Dixon '17 Piper Fisher '19
	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	Christopher Warmuth '18 Heather Rolph '17 Liam Patrick '18	Anna Morrow '18 Julia Soes '17 Satone Haratani '19
	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	Anna Sherry '19 Julia Sherry '19 Morgan Chapman '19	Alaina Marcotte '19 Isabelle Loverich '19 Cole Fox '18
	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	Isabelle Wheeler '17 Niko Twilla '18 Shea Kuligowski '19 Tyler Nolasco '19	Shea Kuligowski '19 Kaylee Frede '17 Rebekah Arvila '18 Travis Bouck '20