North Kitsap High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 (fleet 1.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–7 (50%) as crew 3–11 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 3–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 10–18 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.88 | 2.33 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 1.6 | 13% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 0.95 | 3.94 | 3–1 | 1.0 | +2.99 | 3.4 | 4% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race Districts | crew | 0.52 | 0.66 | 3–11 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.3 | -0.18 |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD) | Crew | B | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| NWISA South Regionals | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 0.15 |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| ISLANDS CUP | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.8 | 0.04 |
| Forrest Cook Regatta - Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.7 | 0.48 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Districts | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Doublehanded Districts | Crew | A | 2 | 16.5 | — |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.7 | -0.04 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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