ISLANDS CUP

HostSan Juan Island Sailing Foundation
Date04/14/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Sehome High School	Mariners	31	28	59
2	Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	22	42	64
3	Olympia High School	Bears	45	36	81
4	Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines	13	69	82
5	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	65	24	89
6	Orcas High School	Vikings	55	55	110
7	Ingraham High School	Rams	38	72	110
8	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	54	62	116
9	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	72	56	128
10	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	71	57	128
11	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	60	75	135
12	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	80	63	143
13	Capital High School	Cougars	97	51	148
14	Bellingham High School	Raiders	79	76	155
15	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	77	83	160
16	Squalicum High School	Storm	93	93	186

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines	1	3	2	1	3	2	1	13	Marina West '22 Zoe Calverly '23
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	2	11	1	3	2	1	2	22	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '18 Nicholas Lee '20
Sehome High School	Mariners	9	2	3	2	4	6	5	31	Lera Anders '23 Peyton Nienaber '23
Ingraham High School	Rams	8	4	10	4	1	4	7	38	Maks Groom '20 Aragorn Crozier '20
Olympia High School	Bears	12	5	9	7	6	3	3	45	Max Miller '18 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	6	15	4	9	5	7	8	54	Anna Sherry '19 [1-7] Julia Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Ashley '18 [3-4, 7]
Orcas High School	Vikings	5	10	11	5	11	9	4	55	Dominick Wareham '19 [1-7] Sol Mehl Zobriest '19 [1-2, 7] Emma Freedman '19 [3-6]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	7	14	6	6	9	8	10	60	Niko Twilla '18 Becca Sharpe '18
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	14	9	12	8	7	BKD	6	65	Sophia Kasper '18 [1-5, 7] Zach Cooper '20 [6] Zach Cooper '20 [1-5, 7] Sophia Kasper '18 [6]
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	11	12	7	11	8	11	11	71	Miles Williams '20 [1-7] Gus Rindal '21 [1-5] Abbie Chipps '21 [6-7]
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	3	8	13	DSQ	12	5	14	72	Axel Stordahl '20 Ripley Morris '19
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	13	7	8	10	15	12	12	77	Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Aiden Wright '21
Bellingham High School	Raiders	4	1	16	14	14	14	16	79	Jack Knowles '22 Morgan Seestrom '22
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	16	6	5	12	13	13	15	80	Liam Patrick '18 Anna Morrow '18
Squalicum High School	Storm	10	13	15	15	16	15	9	93	Jacob Weston '22 Madeline Roberts '22
Capital High School	Cougars	15	16	14	13	10	16	13	97	Orion Bird '17 Ann Li '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	2	1	4	1	5	1	10	24	Arianna Fiore '21 [1-7] Hunter Johnston '20 [1-2, 5-6] Banning Jones '19 [3-4, 7]
Sehome High School	Mariners	3	4	3	5	6	5	2	28	Cedric Keneipp '23 [1-4, 7] Emma Powell '22 [5-6] Mallory Hood '23 [1-4, 7]
Olympia High School	Bears	5	7	11	3	3	2	5	36	Erin Pamplin '20 Ciara Mcclanahan '19
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	4	3	10	9	1	6	9	42	Jack Corddry '19 [1-2, 5-7] Hayden Flaskerud '20 [3-4] Ted Corddry '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Capital High School	Cougars	13	9	5	8	2	13	1	51	Annie Buelt '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Orcas High School	Vikings	14	12	8	6	4	3	8	55	Levi Moss '19 [1-4] Ronan Kau '19 [5-7] Miette Woolworth '21 [1-2, 5-6] Landon Carter '21 [3-4, 7]
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	6	8	2	7	9	DSQ	7	56	Ryalls Peter '19 Emily Smith '21
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	10	13	9	2	8	9	6	57	Sam Kimmel '20 Eilidh Haakanson '21
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	9	6	14	4	BKD	BKD	11	62	Cole Fox '18 [1-7] Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-2, 7] Anna Schroeder '19 [3-4] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [5-6]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	12	16	6	11	11	4	3	63	Christopher Warmuth '18 Satone Haratani '20
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines	8	14	1	13	7	12	14	69	Zoe Calverly '23 Will Hagmann '22
Ingraham High School	Rams	7	2	13	12	12	10	16	72	Max Kauffman '18 [1-7] Formosa Huang '18 [1-2, 5-6] Bridget Boyle '18 [3-4, 7]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	15	5	7	15	10	11	12	75	Tyler Nolasco '19 Travis Bouck '20
Bellingham High School	Raiders	1	15	15	14	13	14	4	76	Lauren Wittkopf '22 Sedona Webb '22
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	11	11	12	10	16	8	15	83	Jenny Danielson '20 Willa Weinsheimer '20
Squalicum High School	Storm	16	10	16	16	15	7	13	93	Sophia Roberts '22 Madison Reardon '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Anacortes High School Seahawks	108	108	16	16	110	110	85
Bainbridge High School Spartans	16	16	110	110	85	85	23
Bellingham High School Raiders	110	110	85	85	23	23	30
Capital High School Cougars	85	85	23	23	30	30	103
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	23	23	30	30	103	103	112
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	30	30	103	103	112	112	31
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines	103	103	112	112	31	31	42
Gig Harbor High School Tides	112	112	31	31	42	42	45
Ingraham High School Rams	31	31	42	42	45	45	86
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	42	42	45	45	86	86	32
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	45	45	86	86	32	32	43
Olympia High School Bears	86	86	32	32	43	43	102
Orcas High School Vikings	32	32	43	43	102	102	44
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	43	43	102	102	44	44	108
Sehome High School Mariners	102	102	44	44	108	108	16
Squalicum High School Storm	44	44	108	108	16	16	110

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	31	31	42	42	45	45	86
Bainbridge High School Spartans	42	42	45	45	86	86	32
Bellingham High School Raiders	45	45	86	86	32	32	43
Capital High School Cougars	86	86	32	32	43	43	102
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	32	32	43	43	102	102	44
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	43	43	102	102	44	44	108
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines	102	102	44	44	108	108	16
Gig Harbor High School Tides	44	44	108	108	16	16	110
Ingraham High School Rams	108	108	16	16	110	110	85
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	16	16	110	110	85	85	23
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	110	110	85	85	23	23	30
Olympia High School Bears	85	85	23	23	30	30	103
Orcas High School Vikings	23	23	30	30	103	103	112
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	30	30	103	103	112	112	31
Sehome High School Mariners	103	103	112	112	31	31	42
Squalicum High School Storm	112	112	31	31	42	42	45

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Liam Patrick '18	Anna Morrow '18
Seahawks	Christopher Warmuth '18	Satone Haratani '20
Bainbridge High School	Sophia Kasper '18 [1-5, 7] Zach Cooper '20 [6]	Zach Cooper '20 [1-5, 7] Sophia Kasper '18 [6]
Spartans	Arianna Fiore '21 [1-7]	Hunter Johnston '20 [1-2, 5-6] Banning Jones '19 [3-4, 7]
Bellingham High School	Jack Knowles '22	Morgan Seestrom '22
Raiders	Lauren Wittkopf '22	Sedona Webb '22
Capital High School	Orion Bird '17	Ann Li '20
Cougars	Annie Buelt '20	Caroline Hurley '20
Central Kitsap High School	Niko Twilla '18	Becca Sharpe '18
Cougars	Tyler Nolasco '19	Travis Bouck '20
Charles Wright Academy	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '18	Nicholas Lee '20
Tarriers	Jack Corddry '19 [1-2, 5-7] Hayden Flaskerud '20 [3-4]	Ted Corddry '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Friday Harbor High School	Marina West '22	Zoe Calverly '23
Wolverines	Zoe Calverly '23	Will Hagmann '22
Gig Harbor High School	Axel Stordahl '20	Ripley Morris '19
Tides	Ryalls Peter '19	Emily Smith '21
Ingraham High School	Maks Groom '20	Aragorn Crozier '20
Rams	Max Kauffman '18 [1-7]	Formosa Huang '18 [1-2, 5-6] Bridget Boyle '18 [3-4, 7]
North Kitsap High School	Anna Sherry '19 [1-7]	Julia Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Ashley '18 [3-4, 7]
Dogfish	Cole Fox '18 [1-7]	Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-2, 7] Anna Schroeder '19 [3-4] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [5-6]
Oak Harbor High School	Jordan Wood-Pina '18	Aiden Wright '21
Wildcats	Jenny Danielson '20	Willa Weinsheimer '20
Olympia High School	Max Miller '18	Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18
Bears	Erin Pamplin '20	Ciara Mcclanahan '19
Orcas High School	Dominick Wareham '19 [1-7]	Sol Mehl Zobriest '19 [1-2, 7] Emma Freedman '19 [3-6]
Vikings	Levi Moss '19 [1-4] Ronan Kau '19 [5-7]	Miette Woolworth '21 [1-2, 5-6] Landon Carter '21 [3-4, 7]
Roosevelt High School	Miles Williams '20 [1-7]	Gus Rindal '21 [1-5] Abbie Chipps '21 [6-7]
Rough Riders	Sam Kimmel '20	Eilidh Haakanson '21
Sehome High School	Lera Anders '23	Peyton Nienaber '23
Mariners	Cedric Keneipp '23 [1-4, 7] Emma Powell '22 [5-6]	Mallory Hood '23 [1-4, 7]
Squalicum High School	Jacob Weston '22	Madeline Roberts '22
Storm	Sophia Roberts '22	Madison Reardon '22

Conditions — 04/14/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 66% · Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 76°F

Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From E (90°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1018.8 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn · E 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at San Juan Island Sailing Foundation: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Juan Island Sailing Foundation by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at San Juan Island Sailing Foundation: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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