Capital High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 (fleet 1.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–4 (33%) as crew 12–10 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 2–4 | 4–4 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 5–5 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 3–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 14–14 against 12.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | crew | -0.11 | 1.10 | 4–4 | 2.5 | +1.21 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.51 | -0.25 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.76 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.22 | 1.28 | 5–5 | 4.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race - JV | crew | 0.72 | 1.71 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.99 | 0.3 | 50% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Caroline Hurley |  Western Washington University |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
