Seattle Scrimmage #1

HostSail Sand Point
Date03/25/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Seahawks	Seahawks	16	10	26
2	Avanti	Avanti	24	37	61
3	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	23	43	66
4	Capital High School	Capital Varsity	36	31	67
5	Warriors	Warriors	34	42	76
6	Olympia High School	Bears	52	33	85
7	Rams	Rams	49	55	104
8	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	42	62	104
9	Nikola Tesla STEM High School	Engineers	50	60	110
10	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	61	58	119

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Seahawks	Seahawks	1	1	1	6	1	1	5	16
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	3	4	4	4	3	3	2	23	Margot Watts '19 Anna Foss '20
Avanti	Avanti	6	5	5	1	2	4	1	24	Orion Bird '18 No Show
Warriors	Warriors	2	7	7	2	5	7	4	34
Capital High School	Capital Varsity	5	OCS	2	3	6	6	3	36	Annie Buelt '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	10	2	3	5	4	8	10	42	Miles Williams '20 [1-7] David Lu '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Sam Kimmel '20 [2, 4, 6]
Rams	Rams	7	6	9	9	7	2	9	49
Nikola Tesla STEM High School	Engineers	4	3	6	10	DNF	10	6	50	Isaac Perrin '18 Kohya Kato '18
Olympia High School	Bears	9	8	8	7	8	5	7	52	Sam Bonauto '21 Ben Hildreth '19
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	8	9	10	8	9	9	8	61	Ryan Terry '19 Jack West '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Seahawks	Seahawks	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	10
Capital High School	Capital Varsity	10	OCS	2	2	2	2	2	31	Erin Pamplin '20 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '17
Olympia High School	Bears	9	3	6	3	6	3	3	33	Ian Connolly '21 Joey Koval '20
Avanti	Avanti	2	4	DNF	8	4	4	4	37	Macy Bergford '18 Evan Krug '19
Warriors	Warriors	1	5	5	4	5	DNS	DNS	42
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	7	2	4	5	3	DNS	DNS	43	Reilly Hearne '18 [1-7] Jack Rovner '20 [1, 3, 5-7] Anna Wohnoutka '18 [2, 4]
Rams	Rams	3	7	7	7	9	DNS	DNS	55
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	5	6	8	10	7	DNS	DNS	58	Ryan Terry '19 Jack West '20
Nikola Tesla STEM High School	Engineers	8	DNF	3	6	10	DNS	DNS	60	Isaac Perrin '18 Kohya Kato '18
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	6	8	9	9	8	DNS	DNS	62	Miles Williams '20 [1-7] David Lu '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Sam Kimmel '20 [2, 4, 6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.250+0.25

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (29 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Seahawks Seahawks	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Avanti Avanti	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Capital High School Capital Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Rams Rams	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Olympia High School Bears	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Warriors Warriors	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Nikola Tesla STEM High School Engineers	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Seahawks Seahawks	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Avanti Avanti	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Capital High School Capital Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Rams Rams	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Olympia High School Bears	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Warriors Warriors	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Nikola Tesla STEM High School Engineers	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Avanti	Orion Bird '18	No Show
Avanti	Macy Bergford '18	Evan Krug '19
Capital High School	Annie Buelt '20	Caroline Hurley '20
Capital Varsity	Erin Pamplin '20	Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '17
Central Kitsap High School	Ryan Terry '19	Jack West '20
Cougars	Ryan Terry '19	Jack West '20
Nathan Hale High School	Margot Watts '19	Anna Foss '20
Raiders	Reilly Hearne '18 [1-7]	Jack Rovner '20 [1, 3, 5-7] Anna Wohnoutka '18 [2, 4]
Nikola Tesla STEM High School	Isaac Perrin '18	Kohya Kato '18
Engineers	Isaac Perrin '18	Kohya Kato '18
Olympia High School	Sam Bonauto '21	Ben Hildreth '19
Bears	Ian Connolly '21	Joey Koval '20
Roosevelt High School	Miles Williams '20 [1-7]	David Lu '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Sam Kimmel '20 [2, 4, 6]
Rough Riders	Miles Williams '20 [1-7]	David Lu '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Sam Kimmel '20 [2, 4, 6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Seattle Scrimmage #1

Division A

Division B

From the notes