Nathan Hale High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.97 (fleet 1.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–46 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 12–27 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–0 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 8–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 19–30 against 25.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.22 | -0.97 | 1–9 | 3.1 | −2.18 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 1.27 | 0.54 | 6–8 | 7.4 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2018-04-07 | Olympia Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.21 | 0.01 | 5–10 | 7.7 | −1.20 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race - JV | skipper | 1.11 | 4.11 | 6–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 19% |
| 2015-10-24 | Orcas Trick or Treat | skipper | 1.09 | -1.93 | 1–3 | 3.1 | −3.02 | 3.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 0.83 |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD) | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 0.98 |
| Olympia Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 1.31 |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.8 | -0.26 |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 0.61 |
| NWISA All-Women's Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | 0.39 |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | -0.20 |
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | -0.14 |
| SSP Combined - GOLD | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | -0.89 |
| Seattle Scrimmage #1 | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 0.63 |
| NWISA Team Race - JV | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 0.58 |
| NWISA Doublehanded Districts | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 0.37 |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.1 | -0.23 |
| Island Cup Silver | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 1.40 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Margot Watts |  Woodinville High School |
'19 |
| ISSA | Margot Watts |  Ingraham High School |
'19 |
| ISSA | Margot Watts |  Ballard High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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