| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 17–1 |
| 2 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 13–5 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 12–6 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 9–9 |
| 5 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 9–9 |
| 6 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 8–10 |
| 7 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 6–12 |
| 8 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 2–16 |
| 9 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 58 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.386 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 75% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 3.12 | 4.39 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +1.27 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 1 | Orcas High School Vikings | 5.32 | 6.45 | 15–1 | 13.9 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 34% |
| 2 | Sehome High School Mariners | 4.11 | 4.62 | 12–4 | 11.0 | +0.51 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 6 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 1.88 | 2.26 | 6–9 | 5.2 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 2.81 | 2.72 | 7–9 | 7.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 2.79 | 1.59 | 5–10 | 7.7 | −1.20 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 8 | Ingraham High School Rams | 1.46 | 0.18 | 2–13 | 4.0 | −1.28 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 9 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 0.25 | -2.75 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Miller | Olympia High School | 1.71 | 2.98 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +1.27 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Dominick Wareham | Orcas High School | 1.92 | 3.04 | 15–1 | 13.9 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Maggie Toombs | Orcas High School | 1.69 | 2.82 | 15–1 | 13.9 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Ronan Rankin | Orcas High School | 1.50 | 2.63 | 15–1 | 13.9 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Zach Cooper | Bainbridge High School | 1.12 | 1.03 | 7–9 | 7.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Lindsay Campbell | Bainbridge High School | 1.10 | 1.01 | 7–9 | 7.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Parker Hutchinson | Bainbridge High School | 0.49 | 0.40 | 7–9 | 7.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 66% |
| No Show | Nathan Hale High School | 0.70 | -0.50 | 5–10 | 7.7 | −1.20 | 1.8 | 97% |
| No Show | Ingraham High School | 0.57 | -0.71 | 2–13 | 4.0 | −1.28 | 1.3 | 96% |
| No Show | Central Kitsap High School | 0.72 | -2.28 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Lilyan Coleman | Central Kitsap High School | -0.58 | -3.58 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 6 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Vikings | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Vikings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Vikings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 54 | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Vikings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 58 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 60 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 62 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 63 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 67 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 68 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 69 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 70 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 71 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 72 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 73 | |
Vikings | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 74 | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 75 | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 76 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
