Island Cup Silver

HostOak Harbor
Date04/08/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	24	25	49
2	Orcas High School	Vikings 1	31	32	63
3	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	52	34	86
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	61	41	102
5	Orcas High School	Vikings 2	67	84	151
6	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	66	109	175
7	Sehome High School	Mariners	106	75	181
8	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	69	116	185
9	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	89	106	195
10	Klahowya Secondary School	Eagles	81	119	200
11	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	144	65	209
12	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	99	121	220
13	Dogfish	Dogfish	155	73	228
14	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	115	117	232
15	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	113	125	238
16	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	126	133	259

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	3	2	2	7	1	1	2	2	3	1	24	Nicolai Blasdel '17 [1-10] Miles Williams '20 [1-2, 5-10] Will Basinski '21 [3-4]
Orcas High School	Vikings 1	1	4	1	4	4	6	3	1	1	6	31	Ronan Rankin '19 Sol Mehl Zobriest '19
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	2	1	5	1	3	9	6	12	4	9	52	Axel Stordahl '20 Jack Frazier '17
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	6	DNF	3	DSQ	2	4	4	4	2	2	61	Elizabeth Rolfes '17 [1-10] Clayton Marsh '20 [1-2, 5-10] No Show [3-4]
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	4	5	4	6	13	14	7	3	5	5	66	Margot Watts '19 [1-4, 7-10] Will Basinski '21 [5-6] Max Pleskoff '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Orcas High School	Vikings 2	8	3	6	2	10	11	1	10	8	8	67	Levi Moss '19 Birdie Greening '20
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	7	9	7	8	5	2	8	5	6	12	69	Liam Patrick '18 [1-10] Eliot Briefer '17 [1-6] Annika Dunton '21 [7-10]
Klahowya Secondary School	Eagles	10	7	8	10	6	8	11	9	9	3	81	Reece Duitsman '18 [1-10] Andre Alvarado '20 [1-4] Cormac Burke '22 [5-6] Shea Kuligowski '19 [7-10]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	12	10	9	5	8	3	14	8	10	10	89	Alejandro Montanez '17 Henry Stier '19
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	9	11	11	9	DNS	16	5	6	11	4	99	Dane Petrakis '21 [1-10] Daniel Rentz '18 [1-4] Parker Hutchinson '20 [5-6] Laine Pickell '20 [7-10]
Sehome High School	Mariners	5	8	13	13	14	13	12	14	7	7	106	Colby Antico '23 Natalie Serbousek '22
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	11	6	12	12	12	5	10	11	DNF	DNF	113	Dylan Angell '18 [1-10] Lenika Aguilar '18 [1-4, 7-8] Ella Langrock '20 [5-6, 9-10]
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	DNF	DNF	10	3	9	10	13	13	12	11	115	Kara Ashpole '17 No Show
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	14	DNF	16	15	7	7	9	7	DNF	DNF	126	Parker Hutchinson '20 [1-4, 7-8] No Show [5-6, 9-10] Laine Pickell '20 [1-4] No Show [5-10]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	13	DNF	14	11	11	12	16	16	DNF	DNF	144	Everett Thompson '19 Jack West '20
Dogfish	Dogfish	DNF	DNF	15	14	DNS	15	15	15	DNF	13	155

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	3	1	1	2	1	2	4	4	4	3	25	Marijke Jorna '17 Van Senseney '19
Orcas High School	Vikings 1	2	2	8	3	6	5	2	2	1	1	32	Maggie Toombs '18 Sandy Rost '17
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	1	4	9	4	3	1	1	1	2	8	34	Ryan Squires '18 Ripley Morris '19
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	5	6	4	6	2	3	3	3	3	6	41	Lindsay Campbell '20 [1-7] Harrison Saliba '17 [8-10] Harrison Saliba '17 [1-7] Parker Hutchinson '20 [8] Banning Jones '19 [9-10]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	8	3	3	12	10	6	7	5	6	5	65	Luca Fallows '18 Claire Jablonski '19
Dogfish	Dogfish	9	7	10	8	5	9	6	8	7	4	73
Sehome High School	Mariners	DNF	DNF	5	1	7	7	8	6	5	2	75	Casey Malone '23 [1-8] Jacob Weston '22 [9-10] Max Case '23 [1-8]
Orcas High School	Vikings 2	6	8	6	7	9	14	5	10	9	10	84	Ronan Kau '19 No Show
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	11	14	7	5	12	13	13	9	13	9	106	Jack Gibbons '20 [1-10] Ella Barnard '20 [1, 5-10] Annika Dunton '21 [2-4]
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	4	5	2	15	11	10	16	16	DNF	13	109	Reilly Hearne '18 Formosa Huang '18
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	10	10	14	9	14	11	14	15	12	7	116	Anna Morrow '18 Anna Dobie '18
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	7	9	13	13	15	15	9	12	10	14	117	Thomas Pentimonti '20 Ted Corddry '21
Klahowya Secondary School	Eagles	13	11	15	10	13	12	11	11	11	12	119	Carson Short '19 Travis Bouck '20
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	DNF	13	12	11	8	4	15	7	DNF	DNF	121	Banning Jones '19 [1-8] No Show [9-10] Tristan Knoll '18 [1-4] Dane Petrakis '21 [5-6] Daniel Rentz '18 [7-8] No Show [9-10]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	14	DNF	11	14	4	8	10	13	DNF	DNF	125	Matt Dixon '17 [1-2, 5-8] Atlas Iverson '23 [3-4, 9-10] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ryan Vasileff '18 [3-6, 9-10]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	12	12	16	16	16	16	12	14	8	11	133	Hunter Johnston '20 [1-6] Camden Lee '19 [7-10] Camden Lee '19 [1-6] Hunter Johnston '20 [7-10]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Anacortes High School Seahawks			32	32	112	112	42	42	63	63
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	31	31	41	41	124	124	125	125	43	43
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	32	32	112	112	42	42	63	63
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	41	41	124	124	125	125	43	43	33	33
Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	112	112	42	42	63	63
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	124	124	125	125	43	43	33	33	64	64
Gig Harbor High School Tides	42	42	63	63					44	44
Klahowya Secondary School Eagles					44	44			32	32
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	64	64			31	31	41	41	124	124
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	125	125	43	43	33	33	64	64
Dogfish Dogfish	63	63					44	44
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	43	43	33	33	64	64			31	31
Orcas High School Vikings 1	33	33	64	64			31	31	41	41
Orcas High School Vikings 2			44	44			32	32	112	112
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	44	44			32	32	112	112	42	42
Sehome High School Mariners			31	31	41	41	124	124	125	125

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	31	31	41	41	124	124	125	125	43	43
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	32	32	112	112	42	42	63	63
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	41	41	124	124	125	125	43	43	33	33
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	112	112	42	42	63	63
Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	124	124	125	125	43	43	33	33	64	64
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	42	42	63	63					44	44
Gig Harbor High School Tides	125	125	43	43	33	33	64	64
Klahowya Secondary School Eagles	33	33	64	64			31	31	41	41
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	44	44			32	32	112	112	42	42
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	63	63					44	44
Dogfish Dogfish	43	43	33	33	64	64			31	31
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats					44	44			32	32
Orcas High School Vikings 1			44	44			32	32	112	112
Orcas High School Vikings 2	64	64			31	31	41	41	124	124
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders			31	31	41	41	124	124	125	125
Sehome High School Mariners			32	32	112	112	42	42	63	63

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Liam Patrick '18 [1-10]	Eliot Briefer '17 [1-6] Annika Dunton '21 [7-10]
Seahawks	Anna Morrow '18	Anna Dobie '18
Bainbridge High School	Elizabeth Rolfes '17 [1-10]	Clayton Marsh '20 [1-2, 5-10] No Show [3-4]
Spartans 1	Lindsay Campbell '20 [1-7] Harrison Saliba '17 [8-10]	Harrison Saliba '17 [1-7] Parker Hutchinson '20 [8] Banning Jones '19 [9-10]
Bainbridge High School	Dane Petrakis '21 [1-10]	Daniel Rentz '18 [1-4] Parker Hutchinson '20 [5-6] Laine Pickell '20 [7-10]
Spartans 2	Banning Jones '19 [1-8] No Show [9-10]	Tristan Knoll '18 [1-4] Dane Petrakis '21 [5-6] Daniel Rentz '18 [7-8] No Show [9-10]
Bainbridge High School	Parker Hutchinson '20 [1-4, 7-8] No Show [5-6, 9-10]	Laine Pickell '20 [1-4] No Show [5-10]
Spartans 3	Hunter Johnston '20 [1-6] Camden Lee '19 [7-10]	Camden Lee '19 [1-6] Hunter Johnston '20 [7-10]
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Kara Ashpole '17	No Show
Lions	Thomas Pentimonti '20	Ted Corddry '21
Central Kitsap High School	Everett Thompson '19	Jack West '20
Cougars	Luca Fallows '18	Claire Jablonski '19
Gig Harbor High School	Axel Stordahl '20	Jack Frazier '17
Tides	Ryan Squires '18	Ripley Morris '19
Klahowya Secondary School	Reece Duitsman '18 [1-10]	Andre Alvarado '20 [1-4] Cormac Burke '22 [5-6] Shea Kuligowski '19 [7-10]
Eagles	Carson Short '19	Travis Bouck '20
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Alejandro Montanez '17	Henry Stier '19
Red Hawks	Jack Gibbons '20 [1-10]	Ella Barnard '20 [1, 5-10] Annika Dunton '21 [2-4]
Nathan Hale High School	Margot Watts '19 [1-4, 7-10] Will Basinski '21 [5-6]	Max Pleskoff '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Raiders	Reilly Hearne '18	Formosa Huang '18
Oak Harbor High School	Dylan Angell '18 [1-10]	Lenika Aguilar '18 [1-4, 7-8] Ella Langrock '20 [5-6, 9-10]
Wildcats	Matt Dixon '17 [1-2, 5-8] Atlas Iverson '23 [3-4, 9-10]	Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ryan Vasileff '18 [3-6, 9-10]
Orcas High School	Ronan Rankin '19	Sol Mehl Zobriest '19
Vikings 1	Maggie Toombs '18	Sandy Rost '17
Orcas High School	Levi Moss '19	Birdie Greening '20
Vikings 2	Ronan Kau '19	No Show
Roosevelt High School	Nicolai Blasdel '17 [1-10]	Miles Williams '20 [1-2, 5-10] Will Basinski '21 [3-4]
Rough Riders	Marijke Jorna '17	Van Senseney '19
Sehome High School	Colby Antico '23	Natalie Serbousek '22
Mariners	Casey Malone '23 [1-8] Jacob Weston '22 [9-10]	Max Case '23 [1-8]

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 17.0 kn

Gusts to 37.5 kn

From S (176°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1011.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn · SE 10 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Oak Harbor: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Oak Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu