Sehome High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.42 (fleet 0.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 6.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-27 | Trick or Treat Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | 0.57 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.26 | -1.68 | 2–6 | 4.2 | −1.94 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Trick or Treat Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA North Regional | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | -0.05 |
| NWISA DJOD FJ Fleet | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.3 | 0.52 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined - SILVER | Skipper | A | 7 | 17.9 | -1.75 |
| Island Cup Silver | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 1.90 |
| Forrest Cook Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.3 | -0.85 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl - Silver | Crew | A, B | 4 | 22.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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