NWISA JV Team Race Districts

HostCentral Kitsap
Date05/05/2018
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatCFJ/V15
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	8–0
2	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	8–1
2	Olympia High School	Bears	8–1
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	6–3
4	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	6–3
6	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	5–3
7	Inglemoor High School	Vikings	5–4
8	Benson Polytechnic High School	Techsters	4–5
9	Bellingham High School	Raiders	4–5
10	Squalicum High School	Storm	2–6
11	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	2–7
12	Kingston High School	Varsity	1–7
13	Ingraham High School	Rams	1–8
13	North Thurston High School	Rams	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 61 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.506 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.19 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Gig Harbor High School Tides	1	3.33	Marina West / Nolan Loverich Ryan Squires / Emily Smith 1.28 Axel Stordahl / Von Zimmerman Naomi 1.24	85%	8–0 (100%)	+1.2
2	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals	3	2.98 school −0.28	Casey Picket / Ella Notdurft Pierre Carr / Ethan Stein Anisha Arcott / Jack Pederson	75%	8–1 (89%)	+1.2
2	Olympia High School Bears	4	2.55	Ella Hubbard / Hatcher Cox 0.74 Sam Bonauto / Peter Kelleher 1.00 Ian Connolly / Rizley Cox 0.59	75%	8–1 (89%)	+1.3
4	Bainbridge High School Spartans	5	2.44	Lindsay Campbell / Gus Beer 1.03 2–3 Parker Hutchinson / Trevor Royset 0.51 2–3 Camden Lee / Chase Van Derrick 2–3 Lindsay Campbell / Camden Lee 1.19 4–0 Dane Petrakis / Gus Beer 1.34 3–0 Parker Hutchinson / Chase Van Derrick 0.47 2–0 Max Doane / Parker Hutchinson 1.26 1–0 Parker Hutchinson / Noah Maher 0.30 1–0 Dane Petrakis / Jack Bennett 1.41 1–0	56%	6–3 (67%)	+0.9
4	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	6	2.09 home +0.12	Niko Twilla / Becca Sharpe 0.93 Tyler Nolasco / Jeffrey Scholfield 0.81 3–1 Cormac Burke / Lilyan Coleman 0.34 3–1 Tyler Nolasco / Kyra Bowlby 0.61 2–0 Claire Jablonski / Jeffrey Scholfield 0.09 0–2 Cormac Burke / Cody Kmecheck 0.15 1–0 Andre Alvarado / Cody Kmecheck 1–0 Tyler Nolasco / Lilyan Coleman 0.81 0–1 Tyler Nolasco / Cormac Burke 0.78 0–1 Tyler Nolasco / Claire Jablonski 0.81 1–0 Cormac Burke / Jeffrey Scholfield 0.37 1–0	55%	6–3 (67%)	+1.0
6	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	2	3.27 school −0.08	Miles Williams / Abbie Chipps 1.55 Van Senseney / Gus Rindal Sam Kimmel / Emilia Garcia-Bompadre 0.88	76%	5–3 (62%)	−1.1
7	Inglemoor High School Vikings	7	1.96	Zach Liang / Tian Marchello Alden Mcgonagle / Johnny Satterlee Erik Anderson / Annelisa Ayars	54%	5–4 (56%)	+0.1
8	Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters	9	1.76	Aaron Danziger / Ace Burton Conrad Miller / Mikaela Lee Daniel Duyvestein / Lauren Watt	45%	4–5 (44%)	−0.0
9	Bellingham High School Raiders	14	-1.85 school −0.47	Cecilia Andrews / Forrest Rehberger Emma Burgess / Haley Holmgren Fischer Brunzell / Jack Knowles	6%	4–5 (44%)	+3.5
10	Squalicum High School Storm	8	1.25	Cole Sokolik / Jennafer Huffstetler Elijah Staffen / Kristoff Kogan Jacob Weston / Madeline Roberts	52%	2–6 (25%)	−2.2
11	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	10	1.25 school −0.09	Thomas Buys / Liam Chapman 0.36 Ben Servatius / Cooper Billiter Quentin Vazquez / Artemisia Wangler	37%	2–7 (22%)	−1.3
12	Kingston High School Varsity	13	0.03 school +0.44	Noah Pluska / James Huffman 0.06 Morgan Chandler / Ian Mcconkey -0.12 0–6 Santiago Portillo / Victor Taylor -0.49 0–4 Victor Taylor / Shelby Chandler 0–3 Morgan Chandler / Andre Alvarado -0.26 1–1 Victor Taylor / Claire Jablonski 1–0	23%	1–7 (12%)	−0.8
13	Ingraham High School Rams	12	0.38 school −0.34	Alex Hubbard / Everett Rendon -0.59 Aragorn Crozier / Kira Blumhagen Max Kauffman / Bridget Boyle 0.66	31%	1–8 (11%)	−1.8
13	North Thurston High School Rams	11	0.76	Joey Koval / Jasper Navarro Hummel Macy Bergford / Lindsey Graham No Show / Ellie Davis	34%	1–8 (11%)	−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
9	Bellingham High School	-1.85	1.76	4–5	0.5	+3.61	8.5	<1%
1	Gig Harbor High School	3.33	6.33	8–0	6.8	≥+3.00	1.8	26%
2	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	2.98	4.39	8–1	6.7	+1.41	0.9	28%
2	Olympia High School	2.55	3.90	8–1	6.7	+1.35	0.9	28%
4	Bainbridge High School	2.44	3.17	6–3	5.1	+0.73	0.4	37%
4	Central Kitsap High School	2.09	2.80	6–3	5.0	+0.71	0.4	35%
7	Inglemoor High School	1.96	2.06	5–4	4.9	+0.10	0.0	61%
8	Benson Polytechnic High School	1.76	1.74	4–5	4.0	−0.02	0.0	65%
6	Roosevelt High School	3.27	2.38	5–3	6.1	−0.89	0.6	91%
12	Kingston High School	0.03	-0.97	1–7	1.8	−1.00	0.4	89%
11	Oak Harbor High School	1.25	0.17	2–7	3.3	−1.08	0.8	92%
10	Squalicum High School	1.25	-0.69	2–6	4.2	−1.94	2.3	99%
13	Ingraham High School	0.38	-1.83	1–8	2.8	−2.21	1.9	99%
13	North Thurston High School	0.76	-1.77	1–8	3.1	−2.53	2.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cecilia Andrews	Bellingham High School	-0.67	2.94	4–5	0.5	+3.61	8.5	<1%
Emma Burgess	Bellingham High School	-0.58	3.03	4–5	0.5	+3.61	8.5	<1%
Fischer Brunzell	Bellingham High School	-0.40	3.21	4–5	0.5	+3.61	8.5	<1%
Marina West	Gig Harbor High School	0.54	3.54	8–0	6.8	≥+3.00	1.8	26%
Axel Stordahl	Gig Harbor High School	1.24	4.24	8–0	6.8	≥+3.00	1.8	26%
Dane Petrakis	Bainbridge High School	1.34	4.34	4–0	2.9	≥+3.00	1.8	23%
Casey Picket	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	1.26	2.67	8–1	6.7	+1.41	0.9	28%
Anisha Arcott	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	0.97	2.38	8–1	6.7	+1.41	0.9	28%
Lindsay Campbell	Bainbridge High School	1.03	1.76	6–3	5.1	+0.73	0.4	37%
Parker Hutchinson	Bainbridge High School	0.51	1.24	5–3	4.1	+0.72	0.4	37%
Victor Taylor	Kingston High School	-0.34	-0.18	1–3	0.9	+0.16	0.0	66%
Zach Liang	Inglemoor High School	0.13	0.23	5–4	4.9	+0.10	0.0	61%
Alden Mcgonagle	Inglemoor High School	0.55	0.65	5–4	4.9	+0.10	0.0	61%
Aaron Danziger	Benson Polytechnic High School	0.22	0.20	4–5	4.0	−0.02	0.0	65%
Conrad Miller	Benson Polytechnic High School	1.41	1.39	4–5	4.0	−0.02	0.0	65%
Daniel Duyvestein	Benson Polytechnic High School	-0.15	-0.17	4–5	4.0	−0.02	0.0	65%
Camden Lee	Bainbridge High School	0.18	-0.06	2–3	2.2	−0.23	0.0	75%
Morgan Chandler	Kingston High School	-0.12	-1.11	1–7	1.8	−1.00	0.4	89%
Noah Pluska	Kingston High School	0.06	-0.94	1–7	1.8	−1.00	0.4	89%
Thomas Buys	Oak Harbor High School	0.36	-0.71	2–7	3.3	−1.08	0.8	92%
Ben Servatius	Oak Harbor High School	0.12	-0.96	2–7	3.3	−1.08	0.8	92%
Quentin Vazquez	Oak Harbor High School	0.79	-0.29	2–7	3.3	−1.08	0.8	92%
Elijah Staffen	Squalicum High School	0.54	-1.39	2–6	4.2	−1.94	2.3	99%
Alex Hubbard	Ingraham High School	-0.59	-2.79	1–8	2.8	−2.21	1.9	99%
Aragorn Crozier	Ingraham High School	0.52	-1.68	1–8	2.8	−2.21	1.9	99%
No Show	North Thurston High School	0.54	-1.99	1–8	3.1	−2.53	2.6	99%
Santiago Portillo	Kingston High School	-0.49	-3.49	0–4	0.9	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Oak Harbor High School	Squalicum High School	54%
1	2	Ingraham High School	Kingston High School	57%
1	3	Gig Harbor High School	North Thurston High School	87%
1	4	Central Kitsap High School	Benson Polytechnic High School	60%
1	5	Olympia High School	Inglemoor High School	61%
1	6	Bainbridge High School	Bellingham High School	99%
1	7	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Roosevelt High School	40%	upset
1	8	Squalicum High School	Kingston High School	72%
1	9	Gig Harbor High School	Oak Harbor High School	83%
1	10	Central Kitsap High School	Ingraham High School	82%
1	11	Olympia High School	North Thurston High School	80%
1	12	Benson Polytechnic High School	Bellingham High School	94%
1	13	Inglemoor High School	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	32%	upset
1	14	Bainbridge High School	Roosevelt High School	46%	upset
1	15	Gig Harbor High School	Kingston High School	93%
1	16	Central Kitsap High School	Squalicum High School	57%
1	17	Olympia High School	Oak Harbor High School	73%
1	18	Bellingham High School	Ingraham High School	15%	upset
1	19	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	North Thurston High School	85%
1	20	Bainbridge High School	Benson Polytechnic High School	75%
1	21	Roosevelt High School	Inglemoor High School	74%
1	22	Gig Harbor High School	Central Kitsap High School	70%
1	23	Olympia High School	Kingston High School	88%
1	24	Bellingham High School	Squalicum High School	8%	upset
1	25	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Oak Harbor High School	79%
1	26	Bainbridge High School	Ingraham High School	75%
1	27	Inglemoor High School	North Thurston High School	72%
1	28	Benson Polytechnic High School	Roosevelt High School	23%	upset
1	29	Olympia High School	Central Kitsap High School	61%
1	30	Gig Harbor High School	Bellingham High School	98%
1	31	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Kingston High School	91%
1	32	Bainbridge High School	Squalicum High School	59%
1	33	Inglemoor High School	Oak Harbor High School	64%
1	34	Benson Polytechnic High School	Ingraham High School	75%
1	35	Roosevelt High School	North Thurston High School	87%
1	36	Bellingham High School	Olympia High School	3%	upset
1	37	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Central Kitsap High School	70%
1	38	Gig Harbor High School	Bainbridge High School	78%
1	39	Inglemoor High School	Kingston High School	81%
1	40	Benson Polytechnic High School	Squalicum High School	59%
1	41	Oak Harbor High School	North Thurston High School	59%
1	42	Roosevelt High School	Ingraham High School	90%
1	43	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Bellingham High School	98%
1	44	Olympia High School	Bainbridge High School	65%
1	45	Central Kitsap High School	Inglemoor High School	55%
1	46	Gig Harbor High School	Benson Polytechnic High School	78%
1	47	North Thurston High School	Kingston High School	65%
1	48	Squalicum High School	Ingraham High School	68%
1	49	Roosevelt High School	Oak Harbor High School	83%
1	50	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Bainbridge High School	73%
1	51	Inglemoor High School	Bellingham High School	95%
1	52	Olympia High School	Benson Polytechnic High School	64%
1	53	Central Kitsap High School	North Thurston High School	73%
1	54	Gig Harbor High School	Ingraham High School	91%
1	55	Kingston High School	Oak Harbor High School	29%	upset
1	56	Roosevelt High School	Squalicum High School	81%
1	57	Bainbridge High School	Inglemoor High School	67%
1	58	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Benson Polytechnic High School	72%
1	59	Bellingham High School	North Thurston High School	12%	upset
1	60	Olympia High School	Ingraham High School	85%
1	61	Central Kitsap High School	Oak Harbor High School	68%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wildcats	1-3-6	def.	Storm	2-4-5
2	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
3	Tides	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
4	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Techsters	1-4-6
5	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
6	Spartans	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
7	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-5
8	Storm	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
9	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
10	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
12	Techsters	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
13	Vikings	1-3-6	def.	Cardinals	2-4-5
14	Spartans	1-2-6	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-5
15	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
16	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Storm	2-3-6
17	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
18	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
19	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
20	Spartans	1-4-5	def.	Techsters	2-3-6
21	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
22	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
23	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
24	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Storm	3-4-5
25	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
26	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
27	Vikings	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
28	Techsters	1-2-5	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-6
29	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
30	Tides	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
31	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
32	Spartans	1-3-4	def.	Storm	2-5-6
33	Vikings	2-3-5	def.	Wildcats	1-4-6
34	Techsters	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
35	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
36	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
38	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
39	Vikings	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
40	Techsters	1-2-3	def.	Storm	4-5-6
41	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
42	Rough Riders	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
43	Cardinals	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
44	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Spartans	1-4-6
45	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
46	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Techsters	4-5-6
47	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
48	Storm	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
49	Rough Riders	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
50	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
51	Vikings	1-3-4	def.	Raiders	2-5-6
52	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Techsters	1-5-6
53	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
54	Tides	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
55	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
56	Rough Riders	1-2-5	def.	Storm	3-4-6
57	Spartans	2-3-4	def.	Vikings	1-5-6
58	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Techsters	1-5-6
59	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
61	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	Axel Stordahl '20 Marina West '22 Ryan Squires '18	Von Zimmerman Naomi '21 Nolan Loverich '22 Emily Smith '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	Anisha Arcott '18 Casey Picket '20 Pierre Carr '18	Jack Pederson '20 Ella Notdurft '21 Ethan Stein '20
Olympia High School	Bears	Ella Hubbard '22 Ian Connolly '21 Sam Bonauto '21	Hatcher Cox '21 Rizley Cox '20 Peter Kelleher '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Camden Lee '19 Dane Petrakis '21 Lindsay Campbell '20 Max Doane '20 Parker Hutchinson '20	Chase Van Derrick '21 Gus Beer '19 Jack Bennett '21 Camden Lee '19 Parker Hutchinson '20 Trevor Royset '21 Noah Maher '19
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	Andre Alvarado '20 Claire Jablonski '19 Cormac Burke '22 Niko Twilla '18 Tyler Nolasco '19	Cody Kmecheck '18 Jeffrey Scholfield '23 Lilyan Coleman '21 Becca Sharpe '18 Kyra Bowlby '19 Claire Jablonski '19 Cormac Burke '22
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	Miles Williams '20 Sam Kimmel '20 Van Senseney '19	Abbie Chipps '21 Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19 Gus Rindal '21
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	Alden Mcgonagle '21 Erik Anderson '21 Zach Liang '18	Johnny Satterlee '19 Annelisa Ayars '20 Tian Marchello '20
Benson Polytechnic High School	Techsters	Aaron Danziger '21 Conrad Miller '21 Daniel Duyvestein '21	Ace Burton '20 Mikaela Lee '20 Lauren Watt '20
Bellingham High School	Raiders	Cecilia Andrews '22 Emma Burgess '22 Fischer Brunzell '22	Forrest Rehberger '22 Haley Holmgren '22 Jack Knowles '22
Squalicum High School	Storm	Cole Sokolik '22 Elijah Staffen '22 Jacob Weston '22	Jennafer Huffstetler '22 Kristoff Kogan '22 Madeline Roberts '22
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Ben Servatius '22 Quentin Vazquez '22 Thomas Buys '22	Cooper Billiter '22 Artemisia Wangler '22 Liam Chapman '22
Kingston High School	Varsity	Morgan Chandler '20 Noah Pluska '19 Santiago Portillo '18 Victor Taylor '23	Ian Mcconkey '21 Andre Alvarado '20 James Huffman '23 Victor Taylor '23 Claire Jablonski '19 Shelby Chandler '25
Ingraham High School	Rams	Alex Hubbard '19 Aragorn Crozier '20 Max Kauffman '18	Everett Rendon '21 Kira Blumhagen '21 Bridget Boyle '18
North Thurston High School	Rams	Joey Koval '20 Macy Bergford '18 No Show	Jasper Navarro Hummel '22 Lindsey Graham '18 Ellie Davis '21

Conditions — 05/05/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.9 kn

avg · max 6.9 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Central Kitsap — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Central Kitsap in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Kitsap by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Central Kitsap, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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