Bainbridge High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 (fleet 0.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–9 (31%) as crew 5–4 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–3 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 5–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 9–12 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.42 | -0.69 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2018-10-27 | Trick or Treat Team Race | skipper | 0.39 | -0.66 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −1.05 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | crew | 1.03 | 1.57 | 5–3 | 4.4 | +0.53 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - SILVER | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | -1.12 |
| Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| NWISA Ranking Regatta #2 | Crew | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| Anacortes Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | -1.02 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Trick or Treat Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| NWISA Fall Championship - Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | -0.31 |
| Cascadia Cup - SILVER | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.3 | -1.97 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - SILVER | Crew | A | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| Port Townsend Open | Crew | B | 7 | 1.9 | — |
| NWISA Silver Fleet Race | Crew | B | 5 | 4.4 | — |
| NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | Crew | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Crew | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Mt. Baker Open | Crew | A | 7 | 6.4 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver | Crew | B | 4 | 4.0 | — |
| NWISA Fall South Regional | Crew | B | 8 | 8.2 | — |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Crew | A | 6 | 12.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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