SSP Combined Division - SILVER

HostSail Sand Point
Date03/09/2019
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Ingraham High School	Rams	56
2	Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	95
3	Orcas High School	Vikings	137
4	Raiders	Raiders	145
5	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	166
6	Mariners	Mariners	175
7	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	183
8	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	196
9	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	206
10	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	207
11	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	214
12	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	240
13	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	244
14	Rough Riders	Rough Riders	275
15	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	289
16	Bears	Bears	319

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ingraham High School	Rams A	2	2	1	1	10	5	21	Aragorn Crozier '20 Alice Curtis '22
Ingraham High School	Rams B	4	9	4	15	2	1	35	Kira Blumhagen '21 Everett Rendon '21
Raiders	Raiders A	10	8	3	8	6	2	37
Orcas High School	Vikings A	9	13	5	5	3	6	41	Ronan Kau '19 Emma Freedman '19
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals B	5	4	2	2	20	14	47	Colin Olson '22 Aidan Kemper '19
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals A	8	1	RDG	6	15	10	48	Alden Mcgonagle '21 Matthew Lindburg '21
Mariners	Mariners B	11	17	18	3	1	4	54
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish A	1	3	24	30	9	9	76	Anna Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Nolan Loverich '22 [3-4] Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars A	18	28	13	4	7	7	77	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-6] Cormac Burke '22 [1-4] Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [5-6]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans B	15	21	8	17	13	3	77	Gus Beer '20 [1-6] Zane Walker '22 [1-2, 5-6] Thomas Mcnulty '21 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats A	22	6	15	13	11	15	82	Thomas Buys '22 [1-6] Andrew Buys '21 [1-4] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [5-6]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish B	7	7	19	29	12	16	90	Julia Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [3-4] Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2, 5-6] Logan Magallon '23 [3-4]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2 A	12	12	16	9	24	18	91	Megan Waller '20 Justin Zhou '21
Orcas High School	Vikings B	16	14	10	12	21	23	96	Levi Moss '19 Landon Carter '21
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions B	3	5	27	28	RAF	8	104	Corbin Torralba '22 Corinne Harrison '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans A	27	23	11	11	8	26	106	Banning Jones '20 [1-4] Gianna Dewey '23 [5] Evan Yeung '22 [6] Trevor Royset '21 [1-4] Evan Yeung '22 [5] Gianna Dewey '23 [6]
Raiders	Raiders B	14	22	20	16	25	11	108
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions A	19	11	26	24	17	13	110	Emily Smith '21 Dalton Lovett '21
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks A	28	16	23	18	5	21	111	Jack Gibbons '20 [1-6] Chance Bates '21 [1-2] Jenna Hiegel '21 [3-4] Henry Stier '19 [5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2 B	25	19	21	20	14	17	116	Sam Hopper '20 Annika Philips '20
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1 B	20	18	17	22	22	20	119	Kieran Banyard '23 Ace Burton '20
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars B	23	20	6	7	31	32	119	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-6] Lilyan Coleman '21 [1-4] Stefan Anthony '22 [5-6]
Mariners	Mariners A	6	30	31	25	4	25	121
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1 A	21	31	12	10	23	24	121	Kyra Leon '19 John Feliciano '20
Rough Riders	Rough Riders A	24	10	9	19	30	29	121
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats B	13	29	25	26	19	12	124	Ben Servatius '22 [1-6] Emelia Boilek '22 [1-2] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [3-4] Catherine Wicker '20 [5-6]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks B	29	26	22	21	16	19	133	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-4] Mary '21 [5-6] Mary '21 [1-4] Chance Bates '21 [5-6]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks B	17	15	30	23	26	27	138	Lauren Mcclintock '20 Olivia Schwartz '21
Bears	Bears B	DNS	DNS	14	14	27	22	143
Anacortes High School	Seahawks A	26	24	28	27	18	28	151	Robert Mccarroll '22 Annika Dunton '21
Rough Riders	Rough Riders B	31	27	7	31	28	30	154
Bears	Bears A	30	25	29	32	29	31	176

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.250+0.25

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (29 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Anacortes High School Seahawks	1	1	3	3	5	5
Bainbridge High School Spartans	3	3	1	1	110	110
Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	5	5	7	7	9	9
Raiders Raiders	7	7	5	5	3	3
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	9	9	11	11	13	13
Ingraham High School Rams	11	11	9	9	7	7
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	13	13	24	24	26	26
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	45	45	35	35	33	33
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	54	54	56	56	83	83
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	24	24	13	13	11	11
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	26	26	33	33	35	35
Bears Bears	33	33	26	26	24	24
Orcas High School Vikings	35	35	45	45	54	54
Rough Riders Rough Riders	56	56	54	54	45	45
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	83	83	109	109	2	2
Mariners Mariners	109	109	83	83	56	56

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bainbridge High School Spartans	4	4	2	2	109	109
Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	6	6	8	8	10	10
Raiders Raiders	8	8	6	6	4	4
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	10	10	12	12	78	78
Ingraham High School Rams	12	12	10	10	8	8
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	78	78	25	25	31	31
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	55	55	44	44	34	34
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	85	85	87	87	108	108
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	25	25	78	78	12	12
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	31	31	34	34	44	44
Bears Bears	34	34	31	31	25	25
Orcas High School Vikings	44	44	55	55	85	85
Rough Riders Rough Riders	87	87	85	85	55	55
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	108	108	110	110	1	1
Mariners Mariners	110	110	108	108	87	87

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Robert Mccarroll '22	Annika Dunton '21
Seahawks	Lauren Mcclintock '20	Olivia Schwartz '21
Bainbridge High School	Banning Jones '20 [1-4] Gianna Dewey '23 [5] Evan Yeung '22 [6]	Trevor Royset '21 [1-4] Evan Yeung '22 [5] Gianna Dewey '23 [6]
Spartans	Gus Beer '20 [1-6]	Zane Walker '22 [1-2, 5-6] Thomas Mcnulty '21 [3-4]
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Emily Smith '21	Dalton Lovett '21
Lions	Corbin Torralba '22	Corinne Harrison '23
Central Kitsap High School	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-6]	Cormac Burke '22 [1-4] Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [5-6]
Cougars	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-6]	Lilyan Coleman '21 [1-4] Stefan Anthony '22 [5-6]
Ingraham High School	Aragorn Crozier '20	Alice Curtis '22
Rams	Kira Blumhagen '21	Everett Rendon '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Kyra Leon '19	John Feliciano '20
Cardinals 1	Kieran Banyard '23	Ace Burton '20
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Megan Waller '20	Justin Zhou '21
Cardinals 2	Sam Hopper '20	Annika Philips '20
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Jack Gibbons '20 [1-6]	Chance Bates '21 [1-2] Jenna Hiegel '21 [3-4] Henry Stier '19 [5-6]
Red Hawks	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-4] Mary '21 [5-6]	Mary '21 [1-4] Chance Bates '21 [5-6]
North Kitsap High School	Anna Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Nolan Loverich '22 [3-4]	Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Dogfish	Julia Sherry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [3-4]	Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2, 5-6] Logan Magallon '23 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School	Thomas Buys '22 [1-6]	Andrew Buys '21 [1-4] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [5-6]
Wildcats	Ben Servatius '22 [1-6]	Emelia Boilek '22 [1-2] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [3-4] Catherine Wicker '20 [5-6]
Orcas High School	Ronan Kau '19	Emma Freedman '19
Vikings	Levi Moss '19	Landon Carter '21
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Alden Mcgonagle '21	Matthew Lindburg '21
Cardinals	Colin Olson '22	Aidan Kemper '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SSP Combined Division - SILVER

Division A

Division B

From the notes