Bainbridge High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 (fleet 1.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–13 (24%) as crew 1–4 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 1–7 | 1–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 5–17 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-10 | Bainbridge Team Race - April 2021 | skipper | 0.42 | 0.39 | 3–6 | 3.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2019-04-06 | Bellingham Team Race | crew | 0.98 | -0.10 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.08 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2019-03-16 | Gig Harbor Silver Team Race | skipper | 0.21 | -1.52 | 1–7 | 2.7 | −1.73 | 1.5 | 97% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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