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Gig Harbor Silver Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 11–0
2 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 7–4
3 Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 6–5
4 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 4–4
5 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 5–6
6 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 3–5
7 Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 1–7
8 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 2–6
9 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,740 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 42 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.537 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Charles Wright Academy
Tarriers		22.76
school −0.30		Hayden Flaskerud / Ted Corddry 1.02
Nicholas Lee / Jaden Unruh
Jack Corddry / Reed Kregenow 1.01		74%11–0 (100%)+2.9
2Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences
Cardinals		13.02Lucien Freemesser / Ben Bryant
Advik Eswaran / Alex Hubbard
Danny Juan / Luka Moonen		78%7–4 (64%)−1.5
3Nathan Hale High School
Raiders		90.49
school −0.35		Zoe Plattner / Ray Mcdavid
Dexter Shafer-White / Jack Rovner
Jed Shridhar / Aurick Suess		33%6–5 (55%)+2.4
4North Kitsap High School
Dogfish		50.94
school +0.09		Anna Sherry / Alaina Marcotte 1.02 3–2
Julia Sherry / Anna Schroeder 0.93 2–1
Nolan Loverich / Isabelle Loverich 2–1
Sam Davenport / Pearl Young 1–2
Brandon Cole / Anna Schroeder 1–1
Julia Sherry / Isabelle Loverich 1.03 1–1
Nathan Grundmeier / Emma Fish -0.37 1–1
Nolan Loverich / Logan Magallon 1–1
Nathan Grundmeier / Logan Magallon -0.41 0–1
Brandon Cole / Emma Fish 0–1		43%4–4 (50%)+0.5
5Bellarmine Preparatory School
Lions		70.96Emily Smith / Dalton Lovett
Taggart Messersmith / Brianna Steel
Corbin Torralba / Carter Stevens		42%5–6 (45%)+0.4
6Central Kitsap High School
Cougars 1		60.55
school +0.07		Tyler Nolasco / Annelisa Ayars 0.88
Travis Bouck / Stefan Anthony
Lilyan Coleman / Finnegan Mcmullen -0.39 1–3
Lilyan Coleman / James Huffman -0.39 2–2		42%3–5 (38%)−0.4
7Kingston High School
Varsity		31.27
school +0.26		Shelby Chandler / Ryan Pavey
Lena Bowen / No Show
Dylan Sprague / Annelise Pardee		52%3–5 (38%)−1.2
8Central Kitsap High School
Cougars 2		40.88
school +0.07		Jeffrey Scholfield / Jonathan Beil
Cormac Burke / Shea Kuligowski 0.38 1–5
Claire Jablonski / Matthew Baerg 0.07 1–5
Cormac Burke / Matthew Baerg 0.33 1–1
Claire Jablonski / Shea Kuligowski 0.23 1–1		44%2–6 (25%)−1.5
9Bainbridge High School
Spartans		80.48Gianna Dewey / Lauren Heinzelman
Evan Yeung / Kate Hansen
Chase Van Derrick / Thomas Mcnulty		34%1–7 (12%)−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Charles Wright Academy Tarriers2.765.7611–08.1≥+3.004.63%
3Nathan Hale High School Raiders0.491.836–53.6+1.341.810%
4North Kitsap High School Dogfish0.941.334–43.4+0.390.148%
5Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions0.961.205–64.6+0.230.152%
6Central Kitsap High School Cougars 10.550.283–53.3−0.270.174%
7Kingston High School Varsity1.270.403–54.2−0.870.690%
2Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals3.022.067–48.5−0.970.993%
8Central Kitsap High School Cougars 20.88-0.312–63.5−1.201.094%
9Bainbridge High School Spartans0.48-1.251–72.7−1.731.597%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Dexter Shafer-WhiteNathan Hale High School0.121.456–53.6+1.341.810%
Jed ShridharNathan Hale High School0.331.666–53.6+1.341.810%
Anna SherryNorth Kitsap High School1.021.643–22.5+0.620.248%
Cormac BurkeCentral Kitsap High School0.380.615–64.6+0.230.152%
Nathan GrundmeierNorth Kitsap High School-0.37-0.361–21.0+0.010.071%
Lilyan ColemanCentral Kitsap High School-0.39-0.673–53.3−0.270.174%
Sam DavenportNorth Kitsap High School-0.36-0.711–21.2−0.350.079%
Brandon ColeNorth Kitsap High School-0.21-0.561–21.2−0.350.079%
Shelby ChandlerKingston High School0.34-0.533–54.2−0.870.690%
Lena BowenKingston High School0.44-0.433–54.2−0.870.690%
Dylan SpragueKingston High School0.04-0.843–54.2−0.870.690%
Advik EswaranSeattle Academy of Arts & Sciences0.51-0.467–48.5−0.970.993%
Jeffrey ScholfieldCentral Kitsap High School0.23-0.972–63.5−1.201.094%
Evan YeungBainbridge High School0.21-1.521–72.7−1.731.597%
Chase Van DerrickBainbridge High School-0.24-1.971–72.7−1.731.597%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Nathan Hale High School RaidersCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 147%upset
12North Kitsap High School DogfishSeattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals36%upset
13Charles Wright Academy TarriersBainbridge High School Spartans85%
14Bellarmine Preparatory School LionsKingston High School Varsity43%upset
15Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2Central Kitsap High School Cougars 155%
16Nathan Hale High School RaidersBainbridge High School Spartans50%upset
17Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsBellarmine Preparatory School Lions83%
18Charles Wright Academy TarriersKingston High School Varsity76%
19Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1North Kitsap High School Dogfish77%
110Bainbridge High School SpartansCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 243%upset
111Charles Wright Academy TarriersNathan Hale High School Raiders85%
112Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsKingston High School Varsity79%
113North Kitsap High School DogfishBainbridge High School Spartans78%
114Bellarmine Preparatory School LionsCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 156%
115Charles Wright Academy TarriersCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 281%
116Kingston High School VarsityNathan Hale High School Raiders65%
117Bellarmine Preparatory School LionsBainbridge High School Spartans58%
118Charles Wright Academy TarriersNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish63%
119Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 187%
120Nathan Hale High School RaidersCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 242%upset
121Charles Wright Academy TarriersBellarmine Preparatory School Lions81%
122Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsBainbridge High School Spartans87%
123Nathan Hale High School RaidersNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish49%upset
124Kingston High School VarsityCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 258%
125Charles Wright Academy TarriersSeattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals45%upset
126Bellarmine Preparatory School LionsNathan Hale High School Raiders59%
127North Kitsap High School DogfishCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 244%upset
128Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1Kingston High School Varsity36%upset
129Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsNathan Hale High School Raiders88%
130Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions49%upset
131Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1Bainbridge High School Spartans51%
132North Kitsap High School DogfishKingston High School Varsity35%upset
133Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 284%
134Charles Wright Academy TarriersCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 185%
135Bellarmine Preparatory School LionsNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish59%
136Kingston High School VarsityBainbridge High School Spartans65%
237Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences CardinalsBellarmine Preparatory School Lions83%
238Charles Wright Academy TarriersNathan Hale High School Raiders86%
239Nathan Hale High School RaidersSeattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals12%upset
240Charles Wright Academy TarriersBellarmine Preparatory School Lions80%
241Nathan Hale High School RaidersBellarmine Preparatory School Lions41%upset
242Charles Wright Academy TarriersSeattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals45%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-4-5 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 2-3-6
2 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-6 def. Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 3-4-5
3 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-5 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-6
4 Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-3-5 def. Kingston High School Varsity 2-4-6
5 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 1-2-6 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 3-4-5
6 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 2-5-6
7 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 2-3-4 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-5-6
8 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-6 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-4-5
9 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 1-2-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-5
10 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 4-5-6
11 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-4 def. Nathan Hale High School Raiders 3-5-6
12 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Kingston High School Varsity 4-5-6
13 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-5-6
14 Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 2-3-5 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 1-4-6
15 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 4-5-6
16 Kingston High School Varsity 1-3-6 def. Nathan Hale High School Raiders 2-4-5
17 Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 4-5-6
18 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-3-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-6
19 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 4-5-6
20 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 4-5-6
21 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-3 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 4-5-6
22 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 4-5-6
23 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-3-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-6
24 Kingston High School Varsity 2-3-4 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 1-5-6
25 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-6 def. Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 3-4-5
26 Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-2-6 def. Nathan Hale High School Raiders 3-4-5
27 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 4-5-6
28 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 1-2-6 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-4-5
29 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-6 def. Nathan Hale High School Raiders 3-4-5
30 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 2-3-5 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-4-6
31 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 4-5-6
32 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-3-4 def. Kingston High School Varsity 2-5-6
33 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 4-5-6
34 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-4 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 3-5-6
35 Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1-4-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-3-6
36 Kingston High School Varsity 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-5-6
37 Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 1-2-6 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 3-4-5
38 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-6 def. Nathan Hale High School Raiders 3-4-5
39 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-4-5 def. Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 2-3-6
40 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-3 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 4-5-6
41 Nathan Hale High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 3-4-5
42 Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 1-2-4 def. Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1025.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →