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Kingston Open Leap Day

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 6 11 17
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 16 10 26
3 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 21 14 35
4 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 24 11 35
5 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 7 35 42
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 17 27 44
7 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 34 34 68
8 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 47 21 68
9 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 35 42 77
10 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2 45 33 78
11 Kraken 2 Kraken 2 Kraken 2 36 42 78
12 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 3 38 44 82
13 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3 40 53 93
14 Kraken 1 Kraken 1 Kraken 1 54 43 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 2 1 2 1 6 Noah Fernandes '23
Ben Stone '23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 1 3 1 2 7 Mary Darcy '21
Chance Bates '21
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 4 2 3 7 16 Dane Petrakis '21
Cece Marshall '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 6 4 4 3 17 Rowan Hunt '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 5 7 5 4 21 Maxwell Richards '24
Carter Anderson '23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 8 5 6 5 24 Jack Gibbons '20
Sophie Kunka '23
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 3 6 12 13 34 Lilyan Coleman '21
Sara Moriarty '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 11 8 10 6 35 Cormac Burke '22
Evan Geilenfeldt '22
Kraken 2 Kraken 2 Kraken 2 12 9 7 8 36
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 3 10 10 9 9 38 Lhotse Rowell '24
Willy Walden '24
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3 7 12 11 10 40 Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-4]
Elenora Black '21 [1-2]
Layden Walsh '25 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2 9 11 13 12 45 Sam Davenport '21 [1-4]
Emma Fish '22 [1-2]
Mayson Brown '22 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 14 14 8 11 47 Nolan Loverich '22 [1-4]
Logan Magallon '23 [1-2]
Ben Horton '22 [3-4]
Kraken 1 Kraken 1 Kraken 1 13 13 14 14 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 3 4 2 1 10 Zane Walker '22
Jack Turkovich '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 1 1 1 8 11 Barrett Lhamon '22
Lauren Heinzelman '22
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 2 2 4 3 11 Jenna Hiegel '21
Landon Pol '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 6 3 3 2 14 Gianna Dewey '23
Jeffrey Kriegh '23
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 4 7 6 4 21 Pearl Young '22 [1-2]
Brandon Cole '20 [3-4]
Brandon Cole '20 [1-2]
Pearl Young '22 [3-4]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 5 9 7 6 27 Evan Yeung '22
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2 11 5 10 7 33 Owen Burnett '24 [1-4]
Olivia Nodolf '22 [1-2]
Anna Hovey '22 [3-4]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 7 6 11 10 34 Travis Bouck '20
Maggie Moriarty '24
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 13 12 5 5 35 Charlotte Capel '24 [1-2]
Zia Magill '24 [3-4]
Zia Magill '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Capel '24 [3-4]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 10 14 9 9 42 Annelisa Ayars '20
Kolin Stumpf '23
Kraken 2 Kraken 2 Kraken 2 12 8 8 14 42
Kraken 1 Kraken 1 Kraken 1 9 11 12 11 43
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 3 8 10 13 13 44 Viola Frank '22
Akeyla Behrenfeld '25
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3 14 13 14 12 53 Michael Ramsdell '23 [1-4]
Hanna Inoue '21 [1-2]
Landon Rowan '23 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 136363434
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 237375252
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 33434126126
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 45252127127
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 1126126151151
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 21271273131
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 31511513838
Kraken 1Kraken 1 Kraken 141413636
Kraken 2Kraken 2 Kraken 244443737
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish 131316060
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish 238386262
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 160606565
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 262624141
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 365654444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 137375252
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 23434126126
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 35252127127
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 4126126151151
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 11271273131
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 21511513838
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 331316060
Kraken 1Kraken 1 Kraken 144443737
Kraken 2Kraken 2 Kraken 236363434
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish 138386262
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish 260606565
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 162624141
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 265654444
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 341413636
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Rowan Hunt '24
Spartans 1 Evan Yeung '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Dane Petrakis '21 Cece Marshall '22
Spartans 2 Zane Walker '22 Jack Turkovich '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Maxwell Richards '24 Carter Anderson '23
Spartans 3 Gianna Dewey '23 Jeffrey Kriegh '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Noah Fernandes '23 Ben Stone '23
Spartans 4 Barrett Lhamon '22 Lauren Heinzelman '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Lilyan Coleman '21 Sara Moriarty '22
Cougars 1 Travis Bouck '20 Maggie Moriarty '24
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cormac Burke '22 Evan Geilenfeldt '22
Cougars 2 Annelisa Ayars '20 Kolin Stumpf '23
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-4] Elenora Black '21 [1-2]
Layden Walsh '25 [3-4]
Cougars 3 Michael Ramsdell '23 [1-4] Hanna Inoue '21 [1-2]
Landon Rowan '23 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Nolan Loverich '22 [1-4] Logan Magallon '23 [1-2]
Ben Horton '22 [3-4]
Dogfish 1 Pearl Young '22 [1-2]
Brandon Cole '20 [3-4]		 Brandon Cole '20 [1-2]
Pearl Young '22 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Sam Davenport '21 [1-4] Emma Fish '22 [1-2]
Mayson Brown '22 [3-4]
Dogfish 2 Owen Burnett '24 [1-4] Olivia Nodolf '22 [1-2]
Anna Hovey '22 [3-4]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Jack Gibbons '20 Sophie Kunka '23
Redhawks 1 Jenna Hiegel '21 Landon Pol '24
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Mary Darcy '21 Chance Bates '21
Redhawks 2 Charlotte Capel '24 [1-2]
Zia Magill '24 [3-4]		 Zia Magill '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Capel '24 [3-4]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Lhotse Rowell '24 Willy Walden '24
Redhawks 3 Viola Frank '22 Akeyla Behrenfeld '25

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1017.3 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Port Townsend: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Port Townsend by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Port Townsend: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →