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Bellingham Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Blues 26 33 59
2 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 45 18 63
3 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 20 59 79
4 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 55 26 81
5 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 44 40 84
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Islanders 38 47 85
7 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 50 46 96
8 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 55 51 106
9 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 44 63 107
10 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 63 53 116
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 1 1 4 2 3 6 1 20 Charlie Snyder '24
Yuri Berebitsky '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Blues 3 4 4 7 4 1 1 2 26 Carter Anderson '23
Elliott Chalcraft '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Islanders 5 5 3 2 9 5 4 5 38 Ryan Downey '25 [1-8]
Nick Heinzelman '24 [1-6]
Sabrina Anderson '24 [7-8]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 2 7 6 6 8 7 4 44 Adam Turloff '24 [1-8]
Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [1-6]
Payton Mcphail '24 [7-8]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 8 3 6 5 7 7 5 3 44 Daniel Roberts '24
Ryan Solie '25
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 1 9 2 8 10 4 3 8 45 Max Hanson '25
Zev Fort '25
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 6 8 9 3 3 9 2 10 50 Willy Walden '24 [1-8]
Charlotte Capel '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Hazel Windstorm '24 [5-6]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 7 10 5 1 5 10 8 9 55 Finn Mcclure '23
Fiona Tang '25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 10 7 10 10 1 2 9 6 55 Mike Rogge '22
Cole Stebbens '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 9 6 8 9 8 6 10 7 63 Ian Beatty '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 2 1 1 1 2 1 9 1 18 Jacob Jones '23
Nathan Pease '25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 5 2 4 1 5 1 7 26 Bailey Logan '22
Katy Woo '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Blues 3 2 3 8 7 6 2 2 33 Evan Yeung '22
Jeffrey Kriegh '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 10 4 5 2 6 3 4 6 40 Nolan Wiggins '23
Jaya Wirth '23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 6 9 6 3 4 7 3 8 46 Lhotse Rowell '24 [1-8]
Hazel Windstorm '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Ocean Smith '24 [3-6]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Islanders 4 8 8 9 3 4 8 3 47 Owen Burnett '24 [1-8]
Sharkey Mckay '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Fin Vitale '25 [5-6]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 5 10 4 5 10 8 5 4 51 Vadim Hettena '24
Liam Taylor '25
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 8 3 9 7 9 2 6 9 53 Ian Beatty '22
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 7 6 10 10 5 9 7 5 59 No Show
Maddox Gorum '25
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 9 7 7 6 8 10 RDG RDG 63 Liam '24
Hannah Fritz '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Blues1818505051515353
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Islanders1010151518185050
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans1515181850505151
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks5050515153535454
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams5151535354545656
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 15353545456561616
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 25454565616165555
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 35656161655551010
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks1616555510101515
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners5555101015151818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Blues5656161655551010
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Islanders5353545456561616
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans5454565616165555
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks1616555510101515
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams5555101015151818
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 11010151518185050
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 21515181850505151
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 31818505051515353
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks5050515153535454
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners5151535354545656

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1023.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · SE 17 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bellingham: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellingham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bellingham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →