Olympia High School
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) as crew 9–10 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 3–1 |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 3–5 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 3–4 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 12–19 against 15.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | Olympia Silver Team Race Seeding Regatta | crew | 0.49 | 1.59 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | crew | 0.91 | -0.51 | 3–5 | 4.8 | −1.42 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 2018-03-24 | NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | skipper | 0.43 | -1.05 | 2–5 | 3.3 | −1.49 | 1.0 | 96% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race - JV | skipper | 0.53 | -0.71 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.24 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2016-04-30 | SSP Team Race - GOLD | crew | 1.47 | 0.88 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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