NWISA Team Race - JV

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 3,374 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 16 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.367 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.62 ± 0.58: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Nathan Hale High School Raiders	2	3.17	Margot Watts / Colette Royer 1.11 Marijke Jorna / Van Senseney Abbie Chipps	77%	6–0 (100%)	+1.4
2	Capital High School Capital Varsity	3	1.89	Joy Brennan / Zachary Cowan Annie Buelt / Caroline Hurley No Show	62%	3–1 (75%)	+0.5
4	Bainbridge High School Blue	1	3.21 school +0.14	Lindsay Campbell / Camden Lee 1.05 Zach Cooper / Quinn Ring 0.98 Dane Petrakis / Tristan Knoll	78%	3–1 (75%)	−0.1
4	Bainbridge High School Gold	4	0.80 school +0.14	Will Price / Laine Pickell 0.08 Banning Jones / Hunter Johnston Sophie Crandell / Parker Hutchinson 0.11	39%	3–2 (60%)	+1.0
11	Olympia High School Bears	5	1.24 school −0.07	Ian Connolly 0.13 Sam Bonauto / Ciara Mcclanahan 0.48 No Show	37%	1–4 (20%)	−0.9
12	Ingraham High School Rams	7	-0.54 school −0.18	Elie Simsch / Aragorn Crozier Alex Hubbard Tian Marchello	12%	0–4 (0%)	−0.5
13	Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	6	1.25 school +0.37	Alejandro Montanez / Orion Pendley 0.54 0–3 Luca Gesinger / Henry Stier 0.04 0–2 Jack Gibbons / Chance Bates 0.40 0–2 Anna Wilke 0–2 Jack Gibbons / Jackson Wilke 0.39 0–2 Alejandro Montanez / Anna Wilke 0.51 0–1	36%	0–4 (0%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Nathan Hale High School Raiders	3.17	6.17	6–0	4.6	≥+3.00	2.1	19%
4	Bainbridge High School Gold	0.80	2.08	3–2	2.0	+1.28	0.7	29%
2	Capital High School Capital Varsity	1.89	2.87	3–1	2.5	+0.99	0.3	50%
4	Bainbridge High School Blue	3.21	2.96	3–1	3.1	−0.25	0.0	81%
11	Olympia High School Bears	1.24	0.00	1–4	1.9	−1.24	0.6	92%
13	Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	1.25	-1.75	0–4	1.5	≤−3.00	2.5	>99%
12	Ingraham High School Rams	-0.54	-3.54	0–4	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Abbie Chipps	Nathan Hale High School	0.64	3.64	6–0	4.6	≥+3.00	2.1	19%
Will Price	Bainbridge High School	0.08	1.36	3–2	2.0	+1.28	0.7	29%
Banning Jones	Bainbridge High School	0.38	1.66	3–2	2.0	+1.28	0.7	29%
Sophie Crandell	Bainbridge High School	0.11	1.39	3–2	2.0	+1.28	0.7	29%
Annie Buelt	Capital High School	0.72	1.71	3–1	2.5	+0.99	0.3	50%
No Show	Capital High School	0.53	1.52	3–1	2.5	+0.99	0.3	50%
Lindsay Campbell	Bainbridge High School	1.05	0.80	3–1	3.1	−0.25	0.0	81%
Zach Cooper	Bainbridge High School	0.98	0.73	3–1	3.1	−0.25	0.0	81%
Dane Petrakis	Bainbridge High School	0.95	0.70	3–1	3.1	−0.25	0.0	81%
No Show	Olympia High School	0.64	-0.60	1–4	1.9	−1.24	0.6	92%
Alejandro Montanez	Lycee Francais de Chicago	0.54	-2.46	0–4	1.5	≤−3.00	2.5	>99%
Jack Gibbons	Lycee Francais de Chicago	0.40	-2.60	0–4	1.5	≤−3.00	2.5	>99%
Alex Hubbard	Ingraham High School	-0.75	-3.75	0–4	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Blue	1-2-4	def.		Rough Riders	3-5-6
2		Gold	1-3-6	def.		Red Hawks	2-4-5
3		Vikings	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
4		Capital Varsity	2-3-6	def.		Bears	1-4-5 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ
5		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Tides	4-5-6
6		Eagles	2-3-5	def.		Rams	1-4-6
7		Mariners	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
8		Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.		Red Hawks	3-4-5
9		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
10		Gold	1-3-6	def.		Bears	2-4-5
11		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
12		Capital Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
13		Tides	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
14		Rams	1-3-6	def.		Mariners	2-4-5
15		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Red Hawks	3-5-6
16		Rough Riders	2-3-4	def.		Bears	1-5-6
17		Raiders	1-3-4	def.		Blue	2-5-6
18		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
19		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
20		Capital Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Rams	2-5-6
21		Tides	2-3-4	def.		Mariners	1-5-6 DNF
22		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
23		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Red Hawks	4-5-6
24		Eagles	2-3-5	def.		Rough Riders	1-4-6
25		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
26		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Rams	3-4-5
27		Tides	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
28		Capital Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
29		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Bears	4-5-6
30		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
31		Red Hawks	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
32		Rough Riders	1-2-6 DNF	def.		Rams	3-4-5
33		Tides	1-2-6	def.		Blue	3-4-5
34		Capital Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Gold	3-4-6
35		Mariners	1-3-4	def.		Raiders	2-5-6
36		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
37		Bears	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
38		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Rams	3-4-5
39		Tides	1-2-3	def.		Red Hawks	4-5-6
40		Capital Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Rough Riders	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
41		Raiders	1-4-5	def.		Blue	2-3-6
42		Gold	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
43		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
44		Raiders	1-2-3 DNS,DNS	def.		Rams	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
45		Tides	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5
46		Capital Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Vikings	2-5-6
47		Raiders	1-2-4	def.		Red Hawks	3-5-6
48		Gold	1-4-5	def.		Rough Riders	2-3-6
49		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Mariners	3-4-6
50		Rams	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
51		Tides	1-4-5	def.		Eagles	2-3-6
52		Raiders	2-3-4	def.		Capital Varsity	1-5-6
53		Raiders	2-3-4	def.		Bears	1-5-6
54		Gold	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
55		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Red Hawks	3-4-5
56		Mariners	1-3-4	def.		Rough Riders	2-5-6
57		Tides	1-2-3	def.		Rams	4-5-6
58		Capital Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
59		Raiders	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
60		Raiders	1-2-5	def.		Gold	3-4-6
61		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
62		Rough Riders	1-3-4	def.		Vikings	2-5-6
63		Mariners	1-2-3	def.		Red Hawks	4-5-6
64		Capital Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Tides	2-4-5
65		Raiders	1-2-6	def.		Rams	3-4-5
66		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
67		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
68		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Rough Riders	4-5-6
69		Bears	1-3-5	def.		Red Hawks	2-4-6
70		Vikings	1-3-5	def.		Mariners	2-4-6
71		Capital Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
72		Tides	1-2-5	def.		Gold	3-4-6
73		Blue	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
74		Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Rough Riders	2-5-6 DNF
75		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Red Hawks	2-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	Abbie Chipps '21 Margot Watts '19 Marijke Jorna '17	Colette Royer '18 Van Senseney '19
	Capital High School	Capital Varsity	Annie Buelt '20 Joy Brennan '20 No Show	Caroline Hurley '20 Zachary Cowan '20
	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	Axel Stordahl '20 Ryan Squires '18	Ryalls Peter '19 No Show
	Bainbridge High School	Blue	Dane Petrakis '21 Lindsay Campbell '20 Zach Cooper '20	Tristan Knoll '18 Camden Lee '19 Quinn Ring '18
	Bainbridge High School	Gold	Banning Jones '19 Sophie Crandell '18 Will Price '19	Hunter Johnston '20 Parker Hutchinson '20 Laine Pickell '20
	Klahowya Secondary School	Eagles	Carson Short '19 Reece Duitsman '18	Collin Bloomer '18
	Olympia High School	Bears	Ian Connolly '21 No Show Sam Bonauto '21	Ciara Mcclanahan '19
	Ingraham High School	Rams	Alex Hubbard '19 Elie Simsch '20 Tian Marchello '20	Aragorn Crozier '20
	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	Alejandro Montanez '17 Anna Wilke '19 Jack Gibbons '20 Luca Gesinger '20	Orion Pendley '20 Anna Wilke '19 Chance Bates '21 Jackson Wilke '21 Henry Stier '19