Capital High School
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–11 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–10 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 4–11 against 6.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | Silver Division Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.50 | -1.75 | 1–10 | 4.0 | −2.25 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race - JV | skipper | 0.53 | 1.52 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.99 | 0.3 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| W.I.N.B. Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 27 | 9.7 | -2.27 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Silver Division Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| NWISA Combined Division Silver | Skipper | B | 2 | 23.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.6 | -3.53 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined - GOLD | Skipper | B | 16 | 15.4 | -0.78 |
| NWISA Team Race - JV | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| NWISA South Regional | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Crew | B | 6 | 18.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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