W.I.N.B. Regatta

HostOrcas Island Yacht Club
Date09/23/2023
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ballard High School	Beavers 2	28	29	57
2	Olympia High School	Bears 1	20	56	76
3	Orcas High School	Vikings	79	31	110
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	48	69	117
5	Olympia High School	Bears 2	38	92	130
6	Lions	Lions	68	67	135
7	Unregistered-NWISA 2	Unregistered-NWISA 2	66	70	136
8	Ballard High School	Beavers 1	76	62	138
9	Spring Street International School	Green	85	53	138
10	Unregistered-NWISA 3	Unregistered-NWISA 3	85	59	144
11	Unregistered-NWISA 1	Unregistered-NWISA 1	87	76	163
12	Capital High School	Cougars	99	65	164
13	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	69	102	171
14	Unregistered-NWISA 4	Unregistered-NWISA 4	107	121	228

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Olympia High School	Bears 1	1	7	2	1	1	1	1	2	4	20	Sophia Hubbard '24 No Show
Ballard High School	Beavers 2	8	2	1	3	3	2	6	1	2	28	Lydia Carscaddon '26 Catalina Kim '24
Olympia High School	Bears 2	3	8	3	6	5	4	5	3	1	38	No Show Amelia Burrus '24
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	7	1	5	2	11	5	3	7	7	48	Stella Saleh '26 [1-9] Talia Esarey '24 [1-6] Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 [7-9]
Unregistered-NWISA 2	Unregistered-NWISA 2	4	10	7	12	2	7	2	10	12	66
Lions	Lions	9	13	6	10	6	3	8	8	5	68
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	2	3	11	11	7	14	7	5	9	69	Daniella Cheng-Sun '28 [1-9] Ella Baker '27 [1-2, 5] Gabrielle Jelic '27 [3-4, 6-9]
Ballard High School	Beavers 1	5	12	4	7	9	13	10	6	10	76	Isadora Ford '27 Eloise Hererra '27
Orcas High School	Vikings	6	4	12	8	12	10	DNS	4	8	79	Lola Walker '26 Wren Ontjes '27
Spring Street International School	Green	10	5	8	4	13	12	11	11	11	85	Else Ranker '26 No Show
Unregistered-NWISA 3	Unregistered-NWISA 3	12	6	DNS	DNS	DNF	6	4	9	3	85
Unregistered-NWISA 1	Unregistered-NWISA 1	11	9	9	13	10	8	9	12	6	87
Capital High School	Cougars	13	11	13	9	4	11	12	13	13	99	No Show No Show
Unregistered-NWISA 4	Unregistered-NWISA 4	DNS	DNS	10	5	8	9	DNF	DNS	DNS	107

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Ballard High School	Beavers 2	7	2	2	3	1	4	4	1	5	29	Hadley Carscaddon '26 [1-9] Lily Beckerman '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Francesca Dougherty '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Orcas High School	Vikings	1	3	3	4	7	1	6	4	2	31	Dagny Kruger '25 Juliette Mckenney '25
Spring Street International School	Green	5	1	10	7	10	3	2	12	3	53	Matilda Twigg '25 No Show
Olympia High School	Bears 1	6	8	14	5	3	2	5	2	11	56	Simone Reck '27 Caleigh Mingay '25
Unregistered-NWISA 3	Unregistered-NWISA 3	2	9	1	14	5	11	11	5	1	59
Ballard High School	Beavers 1	3	12	7	8	2	12	3	7	8	62	Simone Ford '24 Phoebe Howe '24
Capital High School	Cougars	4	4	8	12	8	7	7	8	7	65	Cate Griffith '27 No Show
Lions	Lions	8	5	4	2	11	9	9	10	9	67
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	9	11	9	6	DNF	5	1	9	4	69	Gretchen Fiscus '26 [1-9] Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 [1-5] Talia Esarey '24 [6-9]
Unregistered-NWISA 2	Unregistered-NWISA 2	10	7	6	1	6	10	12	6	12	70
Unregistered-NWISA 1	Unregistered-NWISA 1	13	10	5	9	12	6	8	3	10	76
Olympia High School	Bears 2	11	6	11	13	13	8	13	11	6	92	Alyssa Leong '26 No Show
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	12	13	13	11	4	13	10	13	13	102	Maura Bascom '24 Tabor Houghtaling '27
Unregistered-NWISA 4	Unregistered-NWISA 4	DNS	DNS	12	10	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	121

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	21	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	24
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	22	22	21	21	34	34	33	33	33
Ballard High School Beavers 1	23	23	24	24	25	25	26	26	26
Ballard High School Beavers 2	24	24	23	23	22	22	21	21	21
Lions Lions	25	25	26	26	27	27	28	28	28
Capital High School Cougars	26	26	25	25	24	24	23	23	23
Olympia High School Bears 1	27	27	28	28	29	29	30	30	30
Olympia High School Bears 2	28	28	27	27	26	26	25	25	25
Orcas High School Vikings	29	29	30	30	31	31	32	32	32
Spring Street International School Green	30	30	29	29	28	28	27	27	27
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1	31	31	32	32	33	33	34	34	34
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2	32	32	31	31	30	30	29	29	29
Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3	33	33	34	34	21	21	22	22	22
Unregistered-NWISA 4 Unregistered-NWISA 4	34	34	33	33	32	32	31	31	31

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	21	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	24
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	22	22	21	21	34	34	33	33	33
Ballard High School Beavers 1	23	23	24	24	25	25	26	26	26
Ballard High School Beavers 2	24	24	23	23	22	22	21	21	21
Lions Lions	25	25	26	26	27	27	28	28	28
Capital High School Cougars	26	26	25	25	24	24	23	23	23
Olympia High School Bears 1	27	27	28	28	29	29	30	30	30
Olympia High School Bears 2	28	28	27	27	26	26	25	25	25
Orcas High School Vikings	29	29	30	30	31	31	32	32	32
Spring Street International School Green	30	30	29	29	28	28	27	27	27
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1	31	31	32	32	33	33	34	34	34
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2	32	32	31	31	30	30	29	29	29
Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3	33	33	34	34	21	21	22	22	22
Unregistered-NWISA 4 Unregistered-NWISA 4	34	34	33	33	32	32	31	31	31

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Stella Saleh '26 [1-9]	Talia Esarey '24 [1-6] Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 [7-9]
Spartans 1	Gretchen Fiscus '26 [1-9]	Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 [1-5] Talia Esarey '24 [6-9]
Bainbridge High School	Daniella Cheng-Sun '28 [1-9]	Ella Baker '27 [1-2, 5] Gabrielle Jelic '27 [3-4, 6-9]
Spartans 2	Maura Bascom '24	Tabor Houghtaling '27
Ballard High School	Isadora Ford '27	Eloise Hererra '27
Beavers 1	Simone Ford '24	Phoebe Howe '24
Ballard High School	Lydia Carscaddon '26	Catalina Kim '24
Beavers 2	Hadley Carscaddon '26 [1-9]	Lily Beckerman '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Francesca Dougherty '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Capital High School	No Show	No Show
Cougars	Cate Griffith '27	No Show
Olympia High School	Sophia Hubbard '24	No Show
Bears 1	Simone Reck '27	Caleigh Mingay '25
Olympia High School	No Show	Amelia Burrus '24
Bears 2	Alyssa Leong '26	No Show
Orcas High School	Lola Walker '26	Wren Ontjes '27
Vikings	Dagny Kruger '25	Juliette Mckenney '25
Spring Street International School	Else Ranker '26	No Show
Green	Matilda Twigg '25	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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W.I.N.B. Regatta

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From the notes