| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Wellesley High School | Raiders | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Hingham High School | Harborwomen | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Sharon High School | Eagles | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Pingree School | Pegasus | 2–5 |
| 6 |  |
Boston Latin School | Wolfpack | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Winchester High School | Women | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Unregistered NESSA | MBL | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,250 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 28 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.559 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.17 ± 0.50: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Academy | 4.09 | 7.09 | 7–0 | 6.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 42% |
| 2 | Wellesley High School | 1.25 | 3.07 | 5–2 | 3.0 | +1.81 | 1.9 | 12% |
| 4 | Sharon High School | 1.21 | 2.12 | 4–3 | 2.9 | +0.91 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 3 | Hingham High School | 2.13 | 2.91 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 6 | Boston Latin School | 0.17 | 0.47 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 7 | Winchester High School | 0.94 | 0.33 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 5 | Pingree School | 1.27 | 0.27 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −1.01 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 8 | Unregistered NESSA | 2.04 | -1.04 | 1–6 | 4.2 | −3.07 | 5.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Bria | Tabor Academy | 1.52 | 4.52 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 44% |
| Elizabeth Spillane | Tabor Academy | 1.37 | 4.37 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| Solia Witzenburg | Tabor Academy | 1.02 | 4.02 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| Madeleine Carr | Tabor Academy | 0.74 | 3.74 | 5–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 48% |
| Phoebe Foraste | Wellesley High School | 0.76 | 2.58 | 5–2 | 3.0 | +1.81 | 1.9 | 12% |
| Rachel Wen | Sharon High School | -0.12 | 0.80 | 4–3 | 2.9 | +0.91 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Sarah Xu | Sharon High School | 0.41 | 1.33 | 4–3 | 2.9 | +0.91 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Selah Brown | Sharon High School | 0.30 | 1.22 | 4–3 | 2.9 | +0.91 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Madeleine Accettella | Hingham High School | 1.13 | 1.90 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Casey Teahan | Hingham High School | 0.52 | 1.30 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Jessica Scipione | Hingham High School | 0.29 | 1.07 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Isobel Hannoj | Winchester High School | -0.20 | 0.36 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Grace Newman | Winchester High School | 0.30 | 0.86 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Ava Mackinnon | Boston Latin School | -0.05 | 0.26 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Kristina Kenneally | Boston Latin School | -0.41 | -0.10 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Charis Neave | Boston Latin School | 0.30 | 0.61 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Ashton Marnik | Winchester High School | 0.62 | 0.01 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Sage Wadlow | Pingree School | 0.35 | -0.66 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −1.01 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Ella Vogel | Pingree School | 0.30 | -0.70 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −1.01 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Caio Sullivan | Pingree School | 0.30 | -0.70 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −1.01 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Alice Liu | Winchester High School | 0.03 | -1.30 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.33 | 0.6 | 93% |
| No Show | Winchester High School | 0.36 | -0.97 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.33 | 0.6 | 93% |
| No Name N/Nda One | Unregistered NESSA | 0.30 | -2.77 | 1–6 | 4.2 | −3.07 | 5.0 | >99% |
| No Name N/Nda Three | Unregistered NESSA | 0.30 | -2.77 | 1–6 | 4.2 | −3.07 | 5.0 | >99% |
| No Name N/Nda Five | Unregistered NESSA | 0.30 | -2.77 | 1–6 | 4.2 | −3.07 | 5.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MBL | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Pegasus | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Women | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Harborwomen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pegasus | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Women | 1-3-6 | def. | |
MBL | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Harborwomen | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Pegasus | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MBL | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Harborwomen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Women | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pegasus | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Harborwomen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
MBL | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Women | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
MBL | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Pegasus | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Harborwomen | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MBL | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Women | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Harborwomen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Pegasus | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
MBL | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pegasus | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Harborwomen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Women | 2-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
