| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Capital High School | Capital Varsity | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 6–2 |
| 4 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Charles Wright High School | Tarriers | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Kingston High School | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 8 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 3–5 |
| 9 |  |
Olympic High School | Trojans | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,075 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 28 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.671 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.26 ± 0.41: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital High School Capital Varsity | 2.30 | 5.19 | 6–1 | 3.7 | +2.89 | 3.5 | 4% |
| 7 | Kingston High School Varsity | -0.64 | 2.06 | 3–4 | 0.8 | +2.70 | 3.8 | 3% |
| 6 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 1.17 | 1.91 | 3–4 | 2.3 | +0.74 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 4.07 | 3.39 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 4.21 | 3.36 | 5–2 | 5.7 | −0.84 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 3.49 | 2.44 | 4–3 | 5.0 | −1.05 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 8 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 2–5 | 3.3 | −1.49 | 1.0 | 96% |
| 9 | Olympic High School Trojans | 0.49 | -2.51 | 0–7 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Chandler | Kingston High School | -0.44 | 4.45 | 3–1 | 0.4 | +4.89 | 7.6 | <1% |
| Noah Pluska | Kingston High School | -0.11 | 4.78 | 3–1 | 0.4 | +4.89 | 7.6 | <1% |
| Orion Bird | Capital High School | 0.06 | 2.95 | 6–1 | 3.7 | +2.89 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Annie Buelt | Capital High School | 1.05 | 3.94 | 6–1 | 3.7 | +2.89 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Annelise Pardee | Kingston High School | -0.52 | 2.18 | 3–4 | 0.8 | +2.70 | 3.8 | 3% |
| Shea Kuligowski | Central Kitsap High School | 0.00 | 0.74 | 3–4 | 2.3 | +0.74 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Max Miller | Olympia High School | 1.89 | 1.21 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Sophia Kasper | Bainbridge High School | 1.59 | 0.74 | 5–2 | 5.7 | −0.84 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Lindsay Campbell | Bainbridge High School | 1.17 | 0.32 | 5–2 | 5.7 | −0.84 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Zach Cooper | Bainbridge High School | 1.09 | 0.04 | 4–3 | 5.0 | −1.05 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Dane Petrakis | Bainbridge High School | 1.36 | 0.31 | 4–3 | 5.0 | −1.05 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Parker Hutchinson | Bainbridge High School | 0.52 | -0.83 | 3–3 | 4.1 | −1.35 | 0.8 | 95% |
| No Show | Olympia High School | 0.43 | -1.05 | 2–5 | 3.3 | −1.49 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Cody Kmecheck | Olympic High School | -0.31 | -3.31 | 0–7 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Santiago Portillo | Kingston High School | -0.45 | -3.45 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Viktor Taylor | Kingston High School | 0.59 | -2.41 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Gus Beer | Olympic High School | 0.57 | -2.43 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capital Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tarriers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tarriers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Capital Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
