Kingston High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.42 (fleet -0.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–20 (5%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 1–20 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 1–20 against 3.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | -0.49 | -3.49 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | -0.37 | -1.74 | 1–13 | 2.4 | −1.37 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2018-03-24 | NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | skipper | -0.45 | -3.45 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NWISA South Regionals | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | -1.05 |
| NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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