NWISA Bellingham Team Race

HostBellingham
Date04/21/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatC420/CFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Olympia High School	Bears	16–2
2	Orcas High School	Vikings	14–4
3	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	8–10
4	Sehome High School	Mariners	7–11
5	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	10–4
6	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	7–7
7	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	6–8
8	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	6–8
9	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	3–11
10	Kingston High School	Varsity	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,364 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 78 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.479 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.27 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 23% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Olympia High School Bears	1	5.46	Owen Timms / Evan Krug 2.17 Erin Pamplin / Ciara Mcclanahan 1.24 9–2 Max Miller / Kevin Hicks 2.03 6–2 Max Miller / Rizley Cox 1.73 8–0 Erin Pamplin / Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson 1.39 5–0 Max Miller / Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson 2.00 2–0 Erin Pamplin / Kevin Hicks 1.43 2–0	78%	16–2 (89%)	+2.0
2	Orcas High School Vikings	3	5.24 school +0.19	Dominick Wareham / Millie Kau 2.03 Maggie Toombs / Landon Carter 1.87 Ronan Kau / Miette Woolworth	74%	14–4 (78%)	+0.7
3	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	8	2.88 school −0.36	Miles Williams / Owen Brown Abbie Chipps / Eilidh Haakanson 0.81 Emilia Garcia-Bompadre / Gus Rindal	32%	8–10 (44%)	+2.3
4	Sehome High School Mariners	4	4.51 school +0.44	Cedric Keneipp / Mallory Hood 1.43 Lera Anders / Alejandro Ponce 1.34 3–7 Emma Powell / Casey Malone 1.04 3–7 Lera Anders / Natalie Serbousek 1.44 4–4 Emma Powell / Peyton Nienaber 1.33 4–4	60%	7–11 (39%)	−3.8
5	Bainbridge High School Spartans	2	4.03 school +0.07	Zach Cooper / Hunter Johnston 1.28 9–1 Max Doane / Sophie Crandell 1.31 8–2 Olivia Mitchell / Banning Jones 1.15 6–3 Olivia Mitchell / Sophia Kasper 1.30 4–0 Zach Cooper / Sophie Crandell 1.34 1–2 Sophia Kasper / Hunter Johnston 1.65 1–2 Sophia Kasper / Max Doane 1.65 1–1 Zach Cooper / Banning Jones 1.28 0–1	76%	10–4 (71%)	−0.6
6	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	7	1.29 school −0.23	Alex Ashley / Brandon Cole 0.46 5–3 Julia Sherry / Nolan Loverich 0.63 5–2 Nathan Grundmeier / Sam Davenport -0.74 1–5 Anna Sherry / Anna Schroeder 0.85 3–2 Cole Fox / Isabelle Loverich 3–1 Anna Sherry / Carter Krantz 0.85 1–2 Anna Sherry / Isabelle Loverich 1.08 2–0 Alex Ashley / Carter Krantz 0.53 0–2 Anna Sherry / Nolan Loverich 0.93 0–2 Nathan Grundmeier / Carter Krantz -0.65 1–1 Julia Sherry / Carter Krantz 0.68 0–1	35%	7–7 (50%)	+2.2
7	Anacortes High School Seahawks	9	0.76 school −0.22	Liam Patrick / Anna Morrow 0.62 Christopher Warmuth / Satone Haratani 1.01 Lauren Mcclintock / Carson Lindholm	23%	6–8 (43%)	+2.8
8	Nathan Hale High School Raiders	5	2.43 school −0.07	Anna Wohnoutka / Zoe Plattner 0.45 Margot Watts / Colette Royer 1.27 Reilly Hearne / Riley Kapp 0.66	53%	6–8 (43%)	−1.4
9	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	6	1.68 school +0.10	Jordan Wood-Pina / Aiden Wright 1.30 Jenny Danielson / Virginia Blatto 0.27 Willa Weinsheimer / Lenika Aguilar -0.26	41%	3–11 (21%)	−2.7
10	Kingston High School Varsity	10	0.28 school +0.61	Morgan Chandler / Dylan Chandler -0.16 Noah Pluska / Ian Mcconkey 0.07 Santiago Portillo / Viktor Taylor -0.37 1–7 Santiago Portillo / James Huffman -0.28 0–6	17%	1–13 (7%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Anacortes High School	0.76	2.30	6–8	3.2	+1.54	2.6	5%
6	North Kitsap High School	1.29	2.59	7–7	4.8	+1.30	1.6	12%
1	Olympia High School	5.46	6.64	16–2	14.0	+1.18	1.2	18%
3	Roosevelt High School	2.88	3.85	8–10	5.7	+0.97	1.3	14%
2	Orcas High School	5.24	5.56	14–4	13.3	+0.32	0.1	47%
5	Bainbridge High School	4.03	3.64	10–4	10.6	−0.39	0.1	80%
8	Nathan Hale High School	2.43	1.70	6–8	7.4	−0.73	0.6	89%
10	Kingston High School	0.28	-1.09	1–13	2.4	−1.37	0.9	94%
9	Oak Harbor High School	1.68	0.09	3–11	5.7	−1.58	2.3	98%
4	Sehome High School	4.51	2.89	7–11	10.8	−1.62	3.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cole Fox	North Kitsap High School	0.95	3.94	3–1	1.0	+2.99	3.4	4%
Christopher Warmuth	Anacortes High School	1.01	2.56	6–8	3.2	+1.54	2.6	5%
Anna Sherry	North Kitsap High School	0.85	2.06	6–6	4.4	+1.21	1.1	19%
Max Miller	Olympia High School	2.03	3.21	16–2	14.0	+1.18	1.2	18%
Abbie Chipps	Roosevelt High School	0.81	1.78	8–10	5.7	+0.97	1.3	14%
Nathan Grundmeier	North Kitsap High School	-0.74	0.14	2–6	1.2	+0.88	0.4	36%
Alex Ashley	North Kitsap High School	0.46	1.11	5–5	4.2	+0.66	0.3	41%
Dominick Wareham	Orcas High School	2.03	2.35	14–4	13.3	+0.32	0.1	47%
Maggie Toombs	Orcas High School	1.87	2.19	14–4	13.3	+0.32	0.1	47%
Ronan Kau	Orcas High School	1.02	1.34	14–4	13.3	+0.32	0.1	47%
Max Doane	Bainbridge High School	1.31	1.20	8–2	8.1	−0.11	0.0	72%
Zach Cooper	Bainbridge High School	1.28	0.89	10–4	10.6	−0.39	0.1	80%
Anna Wohnoutka	Nathan Hale High School	0.45	-0.28	6–8	7.4	−0.73	0.6	89%
Morgan Chandler	Kingston High School	-0.16	-1.53	1–13	2.4	−1.37	0.9	94%
Noah Pluska	Kingston High School	0.07	-1.30	1–13	2.4	−1.37	0.9	94%
Santiago Portillo	Kingston High School	-0.37	-1.74	1–13	2.4	−1.37	0.9	94%
Jenny Danielson	Oak Harbor High School	0.27	-1.31	3–11	5.7	−1.58	2.3	98%
Willa Weinsheimer	Oak Harbor High School	-0.26	-1.84	3–11	5.7	−1.58	2.3	98%
Emma Powell	Sehome High School	1.04	-0.58	7–11	10.8	−1.62	3.5	99%
Sophia Kasper	Bainbridge High School	1.65	-0.47	2–3	3.2	−2.12	1.5	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Orcas High School	Sehome High School	66%
	2	Oak Harbor High School	North Kitsap High School	70%
	3	Olympia High School	Nathan Hale High School	92%
	4	Anacortes High School	Kingston High School	59%
	5	Bainbridge High School	Orcas High School	32%	upset
	6	North Kitsap High School	Roosevelt High School	39%	upset
	7	Sehome High School	Nathan Hale High School	82%
	8	Oak Harbor High School	Kingston High School	73%
	9	Olympia High School	Bainbridge High School	72%
	10	Roosevelt High School	Anacortes High School	83%
	11	Orcas High School	Nathan Hale High School	90%
	12	Kingston High School	North Kitsap High School	22%	upset
	13	Sehome High School	Bainbridge High School	60%
	14	Roosevelt High School	Oak Harbor High School	72%
	15	Olympia High School	Orcas High School	56%
	16	North Kitsap High School	Anacortes High School	75%
	17	Bainbridge High School	Nathan Hale High School	76%
	18	Roosevelt High School	Kingston High School	88%
	19	Sehome High School	Olympia High School	30%	upset
	20	Anacortes High School	Oak Harbor High School	33%	upset
	21	Orcas High School	North Kitsap High School	97%
	22	Bainbridge High School	Kingston High School	94%
	23	Roosevelt High School	Nathan Hale High School	58%
	24	Olympia High School	Anacortes High School	97%
	25	Sehome High School	Oak Harbor High School	91%
	26	Orcas High School	Kingston High School	98%
	27	Bainbridge High School	North Kitsap High School	94%
	28	Olympia High School	Roosevelt High School	88%
	29	Anacortes High School	Nathan Hale High School	21%	upset
	30	Sehome High School	Kingston High School	97%
	31	Orcas High School	Oak Harbor High School	94%
	32	Roosevelt High School	Bainbridge High School	24%	upset
	33	Nathan Hale High School	North Kitsap High School	78%
	34	Sehome High School	Anacortes High School	95%
	35	Olympia High School	Oak Harbor High School	94%
	36	Orcas High School	Roosevelt High School	86%
	37	Nathan Hale High School	Kingston High School	84%
	38	Bainbridge High School	Anacortes High School	94%
	39	Olympia High School	North Kitsap High School	98%
	40	Roosevelt High School	Sehome High School	20%	upset
	41	Nathan Hale High School	Oak Harbor High School	64%
	42	Orcas High School	Anacortes High School	97%
	43	Olympia High School	Kingston High School	98%
	44	North Kitsap High School	Sehome High School	15%	upset
	45	Bainbridge High School	Oak Harbor High School	85%
4	46	Orcas High School	Sehome High School	66%
4	47	Olympia High School	Roosevelt High School	88%
4	48	Orcas High School	Roosevelt High School	86%
4	49	Olympia High School	Sehome High School	70%
4	50	Roosevelt High School	Sehome High School	21%	upset
4	51	Orcas High School	Olympia High School	45%	upset
4	67	Orcas High School	Sehome High School	66%
4	68	Olympia High School	Roosevelt High School	88%
4	69	Orcas High School	Roosevelt High School	86%
4	70	Olympia High School	Sehome High School	70%
4	71	Sehome High School	Roosevelt High School	79%
4	72	Olympia High School	Orcas High School	55%
4	73	Orcas High School	Roosevelt High School	86%
4	74	Olympia High School	Sehome High School	70%
4	75	Orcas High School	Sehome High School	66%
4	76	Olympia High School	Roosevelt High School	88%
4	77	Roosevelt High School	Sehome High School	21%	upset
4	78	Olympia High School	Orcas High School	55%
6	52	Bainbridge High School	North Kitsap High School	93%
6	53	Anacortes High School	Oak Harbor High School	32%	upset
6	54	Nathan Hale High School	Kingston High School	84%
6	55	North Kitsap High School	Oak Harbor High School	30%	upset
6	56	Bainbridge High School	Nathan Hale High School	75%
6	57	Anacortes High School	Kingston High School	60%
6	58	Nathan Hale High School	Oak Harbor High School	64%
6	59	North Kitsap High School	Anacortes High School	75%
6	60	Bainbridge High School	Kingston High School	94%
6	61	Nathan Hale High School	Anacortes High School	79%
6	62	Bainbridge High School	Oak Harbor High School	85%
6	63	North Kitsap High School	Kingston High School	80%
6	64	Anacortes High School	Bainbridge High School	6%	upset
6	65	North Kitsap High School	Nathan Hale High School	22%	upset
6	66	Oak Harbor High School	Kingston High School	75%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
2	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Dogfish	3-4-6
3	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Raiders	2-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
5	Spartans	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
6	Dogfish	1-2-3	def.	Rough Riders	4-5-6
7	Mariners	1-4-5	def.	Raiders	2-3-6
8	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
9	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Spartans	2-4-6
10	Rough Riders	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
11	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
12	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Dogfish	2-4-6
13	Mariners	1-3-4	def.	Spartans	2-5-6
14	Rough Riders	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Vikings	3-5-6
16	Dogfish	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
17	Spartans	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
18	Rough Riders	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
19	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
20	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
21	Vikings	1-2-3	def.	Dogfish	4-5-6
22	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
23	Rough Riders	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
24	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
25	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
26	Vikings	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
27	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Dogfish	3-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-5
29	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6 DNS
30	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
31	Vikings	1-4-5	def.	Wildcats	2-3-6
32	Rough Riders	1-3-6	def.	Spartans	2-4-5
33	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Dogfish	3-4-5
34	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6 DNF
36	Vikings	2-3-4	def.	Rough Riders	1-5-6
37	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
38	Spartans	1-2-3 DSQ	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Dogfish	3-4-6
40	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
41	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
42	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
43	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
44	Dogfish	1-4-5	def.	Mariners	2-3-6
45	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
46	Vikings	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rough Riders	4-5-6
48	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Rough Riders	3-5-6
49	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
50	Rough Riders	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
51	Vikings	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
67	Vikings	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
68	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-6
69	Vikings	1-2-5	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-6
70	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
71	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Rough Riders	3-4-6
72	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
73	Vikings	1-3-4	def.	Rough Riders	2-5-6
74	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
75	Vikings	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
76	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rough Riders	3-5-6
77	Rough Riders	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
78	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Vikings	1-5-6
52	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Dogfish	3-4-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
54	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
55	Dogfish	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
56	Spartans	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
57	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
58	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
59	Dogfish	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
60	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
61	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
62	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
63	Dogfish	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
64	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Spartans	3-4-6
65	Dogfish	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
66	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Olympia High School	Bears	Erin Pamplin '20 Max Miller '18 Owen Timms '19	Ciara Mcclanahan '19 Kevin Hicks '19 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18 Rizley Cox '20 Evan Krug '19
Orcas High School	Vikings	Dominick Wareham '19 Maggie Toombs '18 Ronan Kau '19	Millie Kau '19 Landon Carter '21 Miette Woolworth '21
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	Abbie Chipps '21 Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19 Miles Williams '20	Eilidh Haakanson '21 Gus Rindal '21 Owen Brown '21
Sehome High School	Mariners	Cedric Keneipp '19 Emma Powell '21 Lera Anders '18	Mallory Hood '18 Casey Malone '20 Peyton Nienaber '18 Alejandro Ponce '18 Natalie Serbousek '21
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Max Doane '20 Olivia Mitchell '18 Sophia Kasper '18 Zach Cooper '20	Sophie Crandell '18 Banning Jones '19 Sophia Kasper '18 Max Doane '20 Hunter Johnston '20
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	Alex Ashley '18 Anna Sherry '19 Cole Fox '18 Julia Sherry '19 Nathan Grundmeier '19	Brandon Cole '20 Carter Krantz '22 Anna Schroeder '18 Isabelle Loverich '19 Nolan Loverich '21 Sam Davenport '21
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	Christopher Warmuth '18 Lauren Mcclintock '20 Liam Patrick '18	Satone Haratani '19 Carson Lindholm '20 Anna Morrow '18
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	Anna Wohnoutka '18 Margot Watts '19 Reilly Hearne '18	Zoe Plattner '20 Colette Royer '18 Riley Kapp '21
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Jenny Danielson '20 Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Willa Weinsheimer '20	Virginia Blatto '18 Aiden Wright '21 Lenika Aguilar '18
Kingston High School	Varsity	Morgan Chandler '20 Noah Pluska '19 Santiago Portillo '18	Dylan Chandler '18 Ian Mcconkey '21 Viktor Taylor '23 James Huffman '23

Conditions — 04/21/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1027.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 25.3 kn

From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1027.9 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Bellingham — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Bellingham in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellingham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bellingham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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