Anacortes High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.72 (fleet 1.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–31 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 10–20 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 13–31 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.77 | 0.88 | 2–8 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 1.01 | 2.56 | 6–8 | 3.2 | +1.54 | 2.6 | 5% |
| 2018-03-24 | Oak Harbor Team Race | skipper | 0.93 | 2.22 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.73 | -0.25 | 3–11 | 4.8 | −0.98 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 26.0 | — |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD) | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.8 | 1.60 |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 1.65 |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 0.31 |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| ISLANDS CUP | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.0 | 0.60 |
| Forrest Cook Regatta - Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 1.35 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | -0.18 |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | -0.46 |
| Island Cup Gold | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.3 | 1.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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