| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 13–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 11–2 |
| 3 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 8–5 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 7–6 |
| 5 |  |
Oregon Episcopal School | Aardvarks | 5–5 |
| 6 |  |
Charles Wright High School | Tarriers | 5–5 |
| 7 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 5–5 |
| 8 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 4–6 |
| 9 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 2–8 |
| 10 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 1–9 |
| 11 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 61 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.371 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 68% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orcas High School | 5.59 | 8.59 | 13–0 | 10.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.6 | 3% |
| 8 | North Kitsap High School | 1.43 | 2.88 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 1.6 | 13% |
| 2 | Olympia High School | 5.53 | 6.21 | 11–2 | 10.1 | +0.68 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 3 | Sehome High School | 4.22 | 4.61 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 5 | Oregon Episcopal School | 3.10 | 3.42 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 9 | Anacortes High School | 1.17 | 1.28 | 2–8 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 7 | Capital High School | 3.31 | 3.36 | 5–5 | 4.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School | 4.58 | 4.00 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 6 | Charles Wright High School | 4.49 | 3.19 | 5–5 | 6.8 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 10 | Nathan Hale High School | 2.09 | -0.10 | 1–9 | 3.1 | −2.18 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 11 | Oak Harbor High School | 1.36 | -1.64 | 0–10 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronan Rankin | Orcas High School | 1.60 | 4.60 | 13–0 | 10.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.6 | 3% |
| Dominick Wareham | Orcas High School | 1.97 | 4.97 | 13–0 | 10.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.6 | 3% |
| Maggie Toombs | Orcas High School | 1.73 | 4.72 | 13–0 | 10.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.6 | 3% |
| Nathan Grundmeier | North Kitsap High School | -0.72 | 0.74 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Cole Fox | North Kitsap High School | 0.88 | 2.33 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Anna Sherry | North Kitsap High School | 1.12 | 2.58 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Max Miller | Olympia High School | 1.98 | 2.67 | 11–2 | 10.1 | +0.68 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Cedric Keneipp | Sehome High School | 1.17 | 1.56 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Lera Anders | Sehome High School | 1.45 | 1.84 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Emma Powell | Sehome High School | 1.29 | 1.69 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Ronan Waterson | Oregon Episcopal School | 1.30 | 1.61 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Christopher Warmuth | Anacortes High School | 0.77 | 0.88 | 2–8 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Annie Buelt | Capital High School | 1.22 | 1.28 | 5–5 | 4.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Orion Bird | Capital High School | 0.39 | 0.45 | 5–5 | 4.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Arianna Fiore | Bainbridge High School | 1.73 | 1.15 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Sophia Kasper | Bainbridge High School | 1.55 | 0.98 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Zach Cooper | Bainbridge High School | 1.23 | 0.65 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Alyosha Strum-Palerm | Charles Wright High School | 2.40 | 1.10 | 5–5 | 6.8 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Anna Wohnoutka | Nathan Hale High School | 0.47 | -1.71 | 1–9 | 3.1 | −2.18 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Jenny Danielson | Oak Harbor High School | 0.27 | -2.73 | 0–10 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
| Willa Weinsheimer | Oak Harbor High School | -0.16 | -3.16 | 0–10 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mariners | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Aardvarks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Aardvarks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tarriers | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Aardvarks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Mariners | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Dogfish | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Tarriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 45 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 2-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Aardvarks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Tarriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-3-6 |
| 51 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Tarriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 55 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Vikings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
