Sehome High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 8–5 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 8–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 8–5 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.17 | 1.56 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Trick or Treat Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| PCISA/ISSA Girls National Invitational | Crew | A | 4 | 11.5 | — |
| NWISA Girls Qualifier for PCISA Girls Invitational | Crew | B | 10 | 2.6 | — |
| NWISA Fall Championship - Silver Fleet | Crew | A | 6 | 16.5 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Crew | B | 6 | 17.5 | — |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (SILVER) | Crew | B | 10 | 5.8 | — |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Crew | B | 9 | 17.8 | — |
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver | Crew | B | 5 | 4.8 | — |
| NWISA North Regional | Crew | A | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| NWISA DJOD FJ Fleet | Crew | A | 7 | 1.3 | — |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Crew | A, B | 10 | 11.1 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - JV | Crew | A, B | 7 | 11.7 | — |
| JV Districts Orcas | Crew | B | 7 | 11.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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