NWISA Fall Championship - Silver Fleet

HostLincoln OR/OES
Date11/03/2018
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bears 1	Bears 1	10	17	27
2	Ballard High School	Beavers	22	33	55
3	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 4	31	31	62
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	22	44	66
5	Sehome High School	Mariners 1	44	44	88
6	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	26	63	89
7	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	68	26	94
8	Bears 2	Bears 2	48	74	122
9	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	48	74	122
10	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	84	41	125
11	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 5	69	59	128
12	Garfield High School	Bulldogs	46	90	136
13	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	90	51	141
14	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	55	101	156
15	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	99	72	171
16	Sehome High School	Mariners 2	99	76	175
17	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	88	92	180
18	Decatur High School	Decatur	97	87	184
19	Cougars	Cougars	97	102	199
20	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	117	90	207

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Bears 1	Bears 1	3	1	1	1	2	2	10
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	1	4	3	2	6	6	22	Dane Petrakis '21 Lauren Heinzelman '22
Ballard High School	Beavers	4	5	2	3	7	1	22	Erik Anderson '21 Everett Rendon '21
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	5	3	8	4	1	5	26	Ryalls Peter '19 Dalton Lovett '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 4	2	7	5	5	9	3	31	John Feliciano '20 Mikaela Lee '20
Sehome High School	Mariners 1	6	2	7	8	13	8	44	Casey Malone '22 Tristan Neinaber '22
Garfield High School	Bulldogs	8	6	11	7	3	11	46	Colin Olson '22 Soren Althoff '22
Bears 2	Bears 2	9	9	6	10	4	10	48
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	15	11	4	6	5	7	48	Barrett Lhamon '22 [1-6] Lola White '22 [1-4] Galen Hutcherson '22 [5-6]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	7	14	10	12	8	4	55	Ben Servatius '22 Kaitlin Mann '23
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	12	19	9	9	10	9	68	Zoe Plattner '20 Kaia Armas '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 5	13	8	13	11	11	13	69	Etienne Quille '21 Kieran Banyard '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	14	12	18	13	15	12	84	Sam Hopper '20 Ella Notdurft '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	17	13	12	18	14	14	88	Aaron Danziger '21 Rooney Ferguson '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	19	10	15	14	17	15	90	Everett Mcavoy '21 Evan Owens '21
Decatur High School	Decatur	16	16	14	16	16	19	97	Evan Lebel '22 Skyler Kimble '22
Cougars	Cougars	18	18	16	15	12	18	97
Sehome High School	Mariners 2	10	17	20	17	18	17	99	Artemisia Wangler '22 Leila Jones '22
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	11	15	17	20	20	16	99	Carson Lindholm '20 [1-2] Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-6] William Peters '25 [1-6]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	20	20	19	19	19	20	117	Trevor Royset '21 Jack Turkovich '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Bears 1	Bears 1	1	5	1	4	3	3	17
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	3	8	6	3	4	2	26	Danny Juan '23 Matthew Lindburg '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 4	6	4	3	8	9	1	31	Jack Pederson '20 Elsa Lincoln '21
Ballard High School	Beavers	8	2	11	5	2	5	33	Lucien Freemesser '23 Aidan Kemper '19
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	13	3	7	1	6	11	41	Wynn Doman '20 Eddie Herzig '21
Sehome High School	Mariners 1	5	1	9	15	5	9	44	Cole Sokolik '22 Skye Beardsley '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	7	DSQ	2	9	1	4	44	Maxwell Richards '24 Arianna Fiore '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	11	7	8	2	15	8	51	Nolan Petrin '23 Annika Philips '20
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 5	2	12	16	10	12	7	59	Kyra Leon '19 Megan Waller '20
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	4	6	18	12	11	12	63	Corbin Torralba '22 Corinne Harrison '23
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	12	17	4	16	10	13	72	Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-2, 5-6] Satone Haratani '20 [3-4] Satone Haratani '20 [1-2] Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-4] Carson Lindholm '20 [5-6]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	16	14	5	DNF	8	10	74	Gianna Dewey '23 [1-2, 5-6] Gus Beer '20 [3-4] Zane Walker '22 [1-4] Gus Beer '20 [5-6]
Bears 2	Bears 2	18	9	10	7	14	16	74
Sehome High School	Mariners 2	9	10	19	17	7	14	76	No Show No Show
Decatur High School	Decatur	14	11	17	6	20	19	87	Marshall Hainer '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	10	DSQ	15	11	18	15	90	No Show Thomas Mcnulty '21
Garfield High School	Bulldogs	17	13	13	13	17	17	90	Advik Eswaran '23 [1-2, 5-6] Isabelle Mcnabb '22 [3-4] Alex Hubbard '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	20	15	20	18	13	6	92	Ace Burton '20 Catie Harding '22
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	15	16	14	19	19	18	101	No Show No Show
Cougars	Cougars	19	DSQ	12	14	16	20	102

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Anacortes High School Seahawks	131	131	34	34	108	108
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	33	33	35	35	109	109
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	34	34	108	108	110	110
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	35	35	109	109	1	1
Ballard High School Beavers	108	108	110	110	9	9
Cougars Cougars	109	109	1	1	3	3
Decatur High School Decatur	110	110	9	9	13	13
Garfield High School Bulldogs	1	1	3	3	14	14
Gig Harbor High School Tides	9	9	13	13	15	15
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	3	3	14	14	16	16
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	13	13	15	15	2	2
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3	14	14	16	16	44	44
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4	15	15	2	2	78	78
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 5	16	16	44	44	86	86
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	2	2	78	78	56	56
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	44	44	86	86	51	51
Bears 1 Bears 1	78	78	56	56	131	131
Bears 2 Bears 2	86	86	51	51	33	33
Sehome High School Mariners 1	56	56	131	131	34	34
Sehome High School Mariners 2	51	51	33	33	35	35

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	33	33	35	35	109	109
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	34	34	108	108	110	110
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	35	35	109	109	1	1
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	108	108	110	110	9	9
Ballard High School Beavers	109	109	1	1	3	3
Cougars Cougars	110	110	9	9	13	13
Decatur High School Decatur	1	1	3	3	14	14
Garfield High School Bulldogs	9	9	13	13	15	15
Gig Harbor High School Tides	3	3	14	14	16	16
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	13	13	15	15	2	2
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	14	14	16	16	44	44
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3	15	15	2	2	78	78
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4	16	16	44	44	86	86
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 5	2	2	78	78	56	56
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	44	44	86	86	51	51
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	78	78	56	56	131	131
Bears 1 Bears 1	86	86	51	51	33	33
Bears 2 Bears 2	56	56	131	131	34	34
Sehome High School Mariners 1	51	51	33	33	35	35
Sehome High School Mariners 2	131	131	34	34	108	108

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Carson Lindholm '20 [1-2] Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-6]	William Peters '25 [1-6]
Seahawks	Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-2, 5-6] Satone Haratani '20 [3-4]	Satone Haratani '20 [1-2] Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-4] Carson Lindholm '20 [5-6]
Bainbridge High School	Dane Petrakis '21	Lauren Heinzelman '22
Spartans 1	Maxwell Richards '24	Arianna Fiore '21
Bainbridge High School	Barrett Lhamon '22 [1-6]	Lola White '22 [1-4] Galen Hutcherson '22 [5-6]
Spartans 2	Gianna Dewey '23 [1-2, 5-6] Gus Beer '20 [3-4]	Zane Walker '22 [1-4] Gus Beer '20 [5-6]
Bainbridge High School	Trevor Royset '21	Jack Turkovich '22
Spartans 3	No Show	Thomas Mcnulty '21
Ballard High School	Erik Anderson '21	Everett Rendon '21
Beavers	Lucien Freemesser '23	Aidan Kemper '19
Decatur High School	Evan Lebel '22	Skyler Kimble '22
Decatur	Marshall Hainer '22
Garfield High School	Colin Olson '22	Soren Althoff '22
Bulldogs	Advik Eswaran '23 [1-2, 5-6] Isabelle Mcnabb '22 [3-4]	Alex Hubbard '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Gig Harbor High School	Ryalls Peter '19	Dalton Lovett '21
Tides	Corbin Torralba '22	Corinne Harrison '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Aaron Danziger '21	Rooney Ferguson '21
Cardinals 1	Ace Burton '20	Catie Harding '22
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Sam Hopper '20	Ella Notdurft '21
Cardinals 2	Wynn Doman '20	Eddie Herzig '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Everett Mcavoy '21	Evan Owens '21
Cardinals 3	Nolan Petrin '23	Annika Philips '20
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	John Feliciano '20	Mikaela Lee '20
Cardinals 4	Jack Pederson '20	Elsa Lincoln '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Etienne Quille '21	Kieran Banyard '23
Cardinals 5	Kyra Leon '19	Megan Waller '20
Nathan Hale High School	Zoe Plattner '20	Kaia Armas '21
Raiders	Danny Juan '23	Matthew Lindburg '21
Oak Harbor High School	Ben Servatius '22	Kaitlin Mann '23
Wildcats	No Show	No Show
Sehome High School	Casey Malone '22	Tristan Neinaber '22
Mariners 1	Cole Sokolik '22	Skye Beardsley '22
Sehome High School	Artemisia Wangler '22	Leila Jones '22
Mariners 2	No Show	No Show

Conditions — 11/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 11.2 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From E (89°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1011.0 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Lincoln OR/OES: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.35 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lincoln OR/OES by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lincoln OR/OES: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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