Oak Harbor High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.15 (fleet 1.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–25 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 8–13 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 11–25 against 16.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.20 | -0.88 | 3–13 | 7.4 | −2.08 | 4.8 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Oak Harbor vs Bellingham | skipper | 0.81 | 3.81 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 2019-04-06 | Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 0.35 | -0.47 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.12 | -0.96 | 2–7 | 3.3 | −1.08 | 0.8 | 92% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
