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NWISA Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 15–3
2 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 14–4
3 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 11–7
4 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 6–12
5 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 9–7
6 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3–13
7 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,239 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 58 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.541 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Olympia High School
Bears		15.49
home +0.04		Sam Bonauto / Peter Kelleher 2.40
Ella Hubbard / Sophia Hubbard 1.88
Hatcher Cox / Ellie Davis 1.16		81%13–3 (81%)−0.0
2Ballard High School
Beavers		33.73
school −0.43		Erik Anderson / Sam Airhart 1.94
Catie Vandervort / Meimei Peterson 1.61
Johnny Vaughey / Holly Peterson		51%14–4 (78%)+4.8
3Bainbridge High School
Spartans		63.48
school −0.06		Dane Petrakis / Ben Stone 1.31
Barrett Lhamon / Marty Weigel 1.51
Gianna Dewey / Chase Van Derrick 0.67 6–6
Zane Walker / Lauren Heinzelman 0.72 5–1		46%11–7 (61%)+2.8
4Roosevelt High School
Rough Riders		24.06
school −0.13		Abbie Chipps / Nati Garcia-Bompadre 1.36
Danny Juan / Kirin Dhaka 1.74
Oliver Nairn / Matthew Lindburg 1.01 2–12
Oliver Nairn / Levi Bailey 1.01 4–0		58%6–12 (33%)−4.4
5Lincoln High School - Portland, OR
Cardinals		42.92
school +0.43		Teddy Gao / Ava Crutchfield-Martinez 0.80
Peter Schnell / Charlotte Yesser 1.03
Zack Riccelli / Leo Bieniek 0.58		47%9–7 (56%)+1.5
6Oak Harbor High School
Wildcats		52.89
school −0.25		Thomas Buys / Andrew Buys 1.23
Ben Servatius / Liam Chapman 1.20
Ryan Metz / Ej Boilek 0.64		46%3–13 (19%)−4.4
7Sehome High School
Mariners		71.10
school +0.24		Bailey Logan / Tristan Neinaber
Keller Morrison / Natalie Aarstol 0.24
Mike Rogge / Keagan Carrigan		16%2–12 (14%)−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Ballard High School3.735.5714–49.2+1.854.81%
3Bainbridge High School3.484.4511–78.2+0.971.512%
5Lincoln High School - Portland, OR2.923.519–77.5+0.590.529%
1Olympia High School5.495.4713–313.0−0.020.066%
7Sehome High School1.100.922–122.3−0.180.069%
4Roosevelt High School4.062.536–1210.4−1.533.799%
6Oak Harbor High School2.890.813–137.4−2.084.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Johnny VaugheyBallard High School0.462.3114–49.2+1.854.81%
Zane WalkerBainbridge High School0.721.745–14.2+1.020.442%
Dane PetrakisBainbridge High School1.312.2811–78.2+0.971.512%
Barrett LhamonBainbridge High School1.512.4811–78.2+0.971.512%
Zack RiccelliLincoln High School - Portland, OR0.581.169–77.5+0.590.529%
Bailey LoganSehome High School0.380.202–122.3−0.180.069%
Abbie ChippsRoosevelt High School1.36-0.176–1210.4−1.533.799%
Thomas BuysOak Harbor High School1.23-0.853–137.4−2.084.8>99%
Ben ServatiusOak Harbor High School1.20-0.883–137.4−2.084.8>99%
Ryan MetzOak Harbor High School0.64-1.443–137.4−2.084.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Ballard High SchoolOak Harbor High School65%
12Roosevelt High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR71%
13Olympia High SchoolBainbridge High School83%
14Ballard High SchoolSehome High School89%
15Lincoln High School - Portland, OROak Harbor High School51%
16Olympia High SchoolRoosevelt High School76%
17Bainbridge High SchoolSehome High School88%
18Ballard High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR65%
19Olympia High SchoolOak Harbor High School89%
110Bainbridge High SchoolRoosevelt High School39%upset
111Lincoln High School - Portland, ORSehome High School81%
112Olympia High SchoolBallard High School80%
113Bainbridge High SchoolOak Harbor High School62%
114Roosevelt High SchoolSehome High School91%
115Olympia High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR88%
116Ballard High SchoolBainbridge High School55%
117Roosevelt High SchoolOak Harbor High School71%
119Bainbridge High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR61%
120Ballard High SchoolRoosevelt High School43%upset
121Sehome High SchoolOak Harbor High School20%upset
145Lincoln High School - Portland, OROak Harbor High School51%
148Lincoln High School - Portland, ORSehome High School80%
151Oak Harbor High SchoolSehome High School80%
222Ballard High SchoolOak Harbor High School66%
223Roosevelt High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR71%
224Olympia High SchoolBainbridge High School83%
225Ballard High SchoolSehome High School89%
226Lincoln High School - Portland, OROak Harbor High School51%
227Olympia High SchoolRoosevelt High School75%
228Bainbridge High SchoolSehome High School87%
229Lincoln High School - Portland, ORBallard High School35%upset
230Olympia High SchoolOak Harbor High School88%
231Bainbridge High SchoolRoosevelt High School38%upset
232Lincoln High School - Portland, ORSehome High School80%
233Ballard High SchoolOlympia High School20%upset
234Bainbridge High SchoolOak Harbor High School62%
235Roosevelt High SchoolSehome High School91%
236Olympia High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR88%
237Bainbridge High SchoolBallard High School45%upset
238Roosevelt High SchoolOak Harbor High School72%
240Lincoln High School - Portland, ORBainbridge High School39%upset
241Ballard High SchoolRoosevelt High School44%upset
242Oak Harbor High SchoolSehome High School80%
254Oak Harbor High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR49%upset
257Lincoln High School - Portland, ORSehome High School80%
260Sehome High SchoolOak Harbor High School21%upset
443Ballard High SchoolBainbridge High School56%
444Olympia High SchoolRoosevelt High School75%
446Ballard High SchoolRoosevelt High School44%upset
447Olympia High SchoolBainbridge High School83%
449Bainbridge High SchoolRoosevelt High School38%upset
450Ballard High SchoolOlympia High School21%upset
452Bainbridge High SchoolBallard High School44%upset
453Olympia High SchoolRoosevelt High School75%
455Ballard High SchoolRoosevelt High School44%upset
456Olympia High SchoolBainbridge High School83%
458Bainbridge High SchoolRoosevelt High School38%upset
459Ballard High SchoolOlympia High School21%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
2 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-2-3 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4-5-6
3 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-5-6
4 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
5 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-3-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-5-6
6 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-6
7 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
8 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
9 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
10 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-6
11 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-6
12 Olympia High School Bears 2-3-5 def. Ballard High School Beavers 1-4-6
13 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-5-6
14 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
15 Olympia High School Bears 1-3-4 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-5-6
16 Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 2-5-6
17 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2-3-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-4-6
18 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
19 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4-5-6
20 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-3 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 4-5-6
21 Sehome High School Mariners 2-3-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-5-6
45 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
48 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
51 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-6
22 Ballard High School Beavers 1-4-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-3-6
23 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-2-5 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-6
24 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-6
25 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
26 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
27 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-6 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-5
28 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
29 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-4-6 def. Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-5 DSQ
30 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
31 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-6
32 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 1-5-6
33 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 3-5-6
34 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
35 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-2-6 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-5
36 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
37 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Ballard High School Beavers 3-4-6
38 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
39 Olympia High School Bears 2-3-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 1-5-6
40 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-5 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-4-6
41 Ballard High School Beavers 2-3-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1-5-6
42 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-6
54 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
57 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
60 Sehome High School Mariners 1-3-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-4-5
43 Ballard High School Beavers 2-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-5-6
44 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-6
46 Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2-5-6
47 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-6 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-5
49 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-5-6
50 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-6 def. Olympia High School Bears 3-4-5
52 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Ballard High School Beavers 4-5-6
53 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-5-6
55 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3-4-6
56 Olympia High School Bears 2-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-5-6
58 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 4-5-6
59 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-5 def. Olympia High School Bears 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 99%  ·  Pressure 1008.8 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From S (182°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity99% Pressure1008.8 hPa Rain0.28 in

What this breeze does at Olympia Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Olympia Yacht Club in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olympia Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Olympia Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →