Oak Harbor High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 (fleet 1.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–28 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 1–15 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 8–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 8–28 against 13.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | 2022 NWISA Team Racing District Championship | skipper | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–15 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2021-04-24 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.64 | -1.44 | 3–13 | 7.4 | −2.08 | 4.8 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Oak Harbor vs Bellingham | skipper | 0.52 | 3.52 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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