| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 8–7 |
| 4 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,326 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.380 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 70% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 1 | 5.99 school −0.31 | Danny Juan / Nati Garcia-Bompadre 2.13 Jacob Posner / Levi Bailey 2.50 Oliver Nairn / Kirin Dhaka 1.58 | 78% | 12–3 (80%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Olympia High School Bears | 2 | 5.04 school −0.08 | Ella Hubbard / Miles Kirkbride 2.00 Charlie Snyder / Emy Kissick 1.79 Peter Kelleher / Sophia Hubbard 1.16 | 59% | 10–5 (67%) | +1.2 |
| 3 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 3 | 4.66 | Barrett Lhamon / Ava Bergan 1.93 Gianna Dewey / Lauren Heinzelman 1.41 Ben Stone / Elliott Chalcraft | 50% | 8–7 (53%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 4 | 2.69 school −0.46 | Thomas Buys / Ej Boilek 1.68 Ryan Metz / Kaitlin Mann 0.90 Anna Servatius / Allison Bailey 0.41 | 13% | 0–15 (0%) | −1.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Olympia High School | 5.04 | 5.58 | 10–5 | 8.8 | +0.54 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 3 | Bainbridge High School | 4.66 | 4.85 | 8–7 | 7.6 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 1 | Roosevelt High School | 5.99 | 6.15 | 12–3 | 11.7 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Oak Harbor High School | 2.69 | -0.31 | 0–15 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Lhamon | Bainbridge High School | 1.93 | 2.13 | 8–7 | 7.6 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 51% |
| Ben Stone | Bainbridge High School | 1.16 | 1.35 | 8–7 | 7.6 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 51% |
| Thomas Buys | Oak Harbor High School | 1.68 | -1.32 | 0–15 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Ryan Metz | Oak Harbor High School | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–15 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Anna Servatius | Oak Harbor High School | 0.41 | -2.59 | 0–15 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 RAF |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Danny Juan '23 Jacob Posner '25 Oliver Nairn '23 |
Nati Garcia-Bompadre '23 Levi Bailey '24 Kirin Dhaka '23 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Charlie Snyder '24 Ella Hubbard '22 Peter Kelleher '22 |
Emy Kissick '25 Miles Kirkbride '22 Sophia Hubbard '24 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Barrett Lhamon '22 Ben Stone '23 Gianna Dewey '23 |
Ava Bergan '23 Elliott Chalcraft '23 Lauren Heinzelman '22 |
|
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | Anna Servatius '24 Ryan Metz '22 Thomas Buys '22 |
Allison Bailey '23 Kaitlin Mann '23 Ej Boilek '22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
