Olympia High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 (fleet 2.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–1 (0%) as crew 11–5 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 10–5 |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 0–1 | 1–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 10–5 against 8.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | 2022 NWISA Team Racing District Championship | crew | 1.79 | 2.33 | 10–5 | 8.8 | +0.54 | 0.4 | 34% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Girls Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.3 | 3.29 |
| Fall Champs Gold | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 2.99 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - HS Gold | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.0 | 0.03 |
| 2022 ISSA - PCISA All Girls Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.3 | 2.02 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| South Regional, NWISA | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.2 | 2.60 |
| Seafarers Cup-GOLD | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 1.97 |
| NWISA Silver Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 1.23 |
| NWISA Combined Division Gold | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 1.21 |
| Islands Cup-Silver | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.4 | 1.71 |
| 2022 NWISA Team Racing District Championship | Crew | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| WSC South Regionals | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 2.32 |
| PCISA/ISSA Girl's National Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 0.08 |
| Olympia Trick or Treat Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| NW Women's Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 1.32 |
| 2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.8 | 0.79 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 0.52 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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