| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 4–1 |
| 4 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 3 | 8–1 |
| 5 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 3 | 7–2 |
| 6 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 6–3 |
| 7 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 6–3 |
| 8 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 6–3 |
| 9 |  |
The Downtown School | Sockeye Salmon | 5–4 |
| 10 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 4–5 |
| 11 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 2–3 |
| 12 |  |
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | 2–7 |
| 13 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 1–4 |
| 14 |  |
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA | Lincoln - Seattle W | 1–8 |
| 15 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 0–5 |
| 16 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern Maine | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,870 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 3 of 3 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.320 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 1 | 5.01 school −0.35 | Danny Juan / Nati Garcia-Bompadre 1.96 Jacob Posner / Levi Bailey Owen Thomas / Kirin Dhaka 1–0 Oliver Nairn / Kirin Dhaka 1.08 1–0 | 70% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 2 | 4.74 home +0.06 | Ella Hubbard / Poppy Green 1.91 Charlie Snyder / Annie Davis Sophia Hubbard / Emy Kissick 1.31 1–0 Emy Kissick / Maddox Gorum 0–1 | 63% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.3 |
| 4 | Olympia High School Bears 3 | 3 | 2.87 home +0.06 | Alan Timms / Alijah Manzanares Peter Kelleher / Yuri Berebitsky 1.19 Finn Mcclure / Hannah Fritz 0.76 | 17% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.3 |
| 13 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 3 | 2.87 home +0.06 | Alan Timms / Alijah Manzanares Peter Kelleher / Yuri Berebitsky 1.19 Finn Mcclure / Hannah Fritz 0.76 | 17% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 5.01 | 8.01 | 2–0 | 1.4 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 4.74 | 3.92 | 1–1 | 1.3 | −0.82 | 0.1 | 90% |
| 13 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 2.87 | -0.13 | 0–2 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 82% | ||
| 37 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 56% | ||
| 40 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 84% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 4-5-6 OCS |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sockeye Salmon | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 8 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Sockeye Salmon | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Sockeye Salmon | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Sockeye Salmon | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-4-6 DNF |
| 32 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bears 3 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sockeye Salmon | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sockeye Salmon | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bears 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 53 | |
Sockeye Salmon | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sockeye Salmon | 2-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 2-3-6 |
| 57 | |
Bears 3 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 58 | |
Sockeye Salmon | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 59 | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Danny Juan '23 Jacob Posner '25 Oliver Nairn '23 Owen Thomas '23 |
Nati Garcia-Bompadre '23 Levi Bailey '24 Kirin Dhaka '23 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | Charlie Snyder '24 Ella Hubbard '22 Emy Kissick '25 Sophia Hubbard '24 |
Annie Davis '24 Poppy Green '24 Maddox Gorum '25 Emy Kissick '25 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | Alan Timms '26 Finn Mcclure '23 Peter Kelleher '22 |
Alijah Manzanares '26 Hannah Fritz '22 Yuri Berebitsky '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
