2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Silver Fleet

HostCentral Catholic/Franklin/Lincoln OR
Date11/06/2021
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Olympia High School	Bears 2	35	39	74
2	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	46	44	90
3	Olympia High School	Bears 1	25	82	107
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	61	69	130
5	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	119	28	147
6	Garfield High School	Bulldogs	33	116	149
7	Olympia High School	Bears 3	74	86	160
8	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	91	75	166
9	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	86	90	176
10	Gig Harbor High School	Tides 1	113	99	212
11	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	95	124	219
12	Ballard High School	Beavers	100	125	225
13	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	98	168	266
14	Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 1	161	109	270
15	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	133	144	277
16	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	171	113	284
17	Gig Harbor High School	Tides 2	168	138	306
18	Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 2	161	156	317
19	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	173	152	325
20	Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 3	179	150	329

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Olympia High School	Bears 1	1	8	1	1	2	2	1	5	3	1	25	Sophia Hubbard '24 Zoe Green '25
Garfield High School	Bulldogs	3	3	4	5	1	1	7	4	1	4	33	Blake Bundesmann '23 Colin Olson '22
Olympia High School	Bears 2	2	1	3	2	7	12	2	1	2	3	35	Peter Kelleher '22 Yuri Berebitsky '24
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	5	2	2	4	8	3	4	6	7	5	46	Addison Strear '24 Alexander Cherevatenko '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	10	5	6	3	5	4	9	3	10	6	61	Ben Stone '23 Nolan Wiggins '23
Olympia High School	Bears 3	4	6	16	16	3	10	11	2	4	2	74	Levi Morse '24 No Show
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	11	7	5	7	4	5	10	18	5	14	86	Evan Yeung '22 Jaya Wirth '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	7	14	10	12	10	6	6	7	6	13	91	Addison Strear '24 Alexander Cherevatenko '25
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	6	15	8	10	6	8	3	19	9	11	95	Zia Magill '24 Nadia Fisch '24
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	12	12	7	8	9	9	8	10	13	10	98	Adam Turloff '24 Luke Hattrup '24
Ballard High School	Beavers	14	4	9	6	16	11	5	11	15	9	100	Max Hanson '24 Zev Fort '09
Gig Harbor High School	Tides 1	9	10	15	9	14	7	12	8	DNS	8	113	Nico Konyk '25 [1-10] Charlie Christ '26 [1-6] William Embick '26 [7-10]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	8	9	11	11	13	13	18	12	12	12	119	Anna Servatius '24 Allison Bailey '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	13	13	14	14	17	16	16	15	8	7	133	Beto Torres '24 [1-10] Sabrina Anderson '24 [1-6, 9-10] Nils Haas '25 [7-8]
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 1	15	11	12	17	12	15	20	17	DNS	DNF	161	Max Day '26 Elliott Brigham '23
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 2	17	16	18	15	11	14	15	13	DNF	DNF	161	Emmett Sampson '26 Britton Sanford '23
Gig Harbor High School	Tides 2	18	18	13	19	18	19	17	20	11	15	168	Bailey Rainbolt '26 [1-10] Maddie Heitzman '25 [1-8] Sky Rainbolt '23 [9-10]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	16	19	19	18	19	17	19	14	14	16	171	Aeden Peterson '25 [1-10] Allison Lehmann '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Fiorello Nicosia-Joachim '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	19	17	17	13	15	20	14	16	DNF	DNF	173	Everett Mcavoy '22 Marco Peron '23
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 3	20	20	20	DNS	20	18	13	9	DNF	17	179	Wyatt Mantha '22 Flora Booker '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	7	2	1	2	1	1	5	4	4	1	28	Ben Servatius '22 [1-4, 9-10] Colin Byler '24 [5-8] Colin Byler '24 [1-4, 9-10] Ben Servatius '22 [5-8]
Olympia High School	Bears 2	1	3	6	6	7	5	3	1	3	4	39	Finn Mcclure '23 Fiona Tang '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 3	10	7	11	1	2	3	2	3	2	3	44	Andrew Dolle '25 Annie Phillips '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	5	9	3	5	4	6	7	8	16	6	69	Carter Anderson '23 Joseph Tappen '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	8	1	16	13	5	2	12	11	5	2	75	Andrew Dolle '25 Annie Phillips '25
Olympia High School	Bears 1	DNF	6	20	3	12	9	1	2	1	7	82	Emy Kissick '25 No Show
Olympia High School	Bears 3	12	10	5	9	9	7	6	5	15	8	86	Daniel Roberts '24 Hannah Fritz '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	17	8	2	8	3	4	14	6	17	11	90	Adam Turloff '24 Maxwell Richards '24
Gig Harbor High School	Tides 1	4	4	4	4	19	17	18	9	11	9	99	Finn Deprez '25 [1-4] Matthew Embick '23 [5-10] William Embick '26 [1-4] Charlie Christ '26 [5-10]
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 1	6	5	10	14	14	14	13	7	10	16	109	Dylan Wynne '23 Lulu Haestad '24
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	2	11	13	7	10	12	9	18	18	13	113	Colton Hong '26 [1-10] Michael Tabor '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Allison Lehmann '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Garfield High School	Bulldogs	11	13	17	11	8	10	11	13	8	14	116	Kairo Zimmerman Goad '25 Ella Barnard '20
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	13	15	15	10	6	11	10	12	13	19	124	Hazel Windstorm '24 No Show
Ballard High School	Beavers	14	12	18	17	15	13	4	10	12	10	125	John Butler '23 [1-6] Hudson Lemke '09 [7-10] No Show [1-6]
Gig Harbor High School	Tides 2	9	DNF	9	12	16	8	DNS	DNF	6	15	138	Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25 [1-2] Koji Kubo '22 [3-4] Nico Konyk '25 [5-10] Sky Rainbolt '23 [1-2]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	3	17	19	16	20	19	17	19	9	5	144	Alden Lemon '25 [1-2, 5-10] Stone Dewey '26 [3-4] Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [1-4, 7-10] Stone Dewey '26 [5-6]
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 3	15	16	12	18	11	15	15	16	14	18	150	Bryce Lutz '23 Luca Gillis '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	18	14	8	15	18	DNF	19	15	7	17	152	Nolan Petrin '23 Catie Harding '22
Bellingham High School	Bayhawks 2	19	DNS	7	19	13	16	8	14	19	20	156	Alder Macgillivray '22 Nate Hettick '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	16	18	14	20	17	18	16	17	20	12	168	Ava Bergan '23 Nick Heinzelman '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Anacortes High School Seahawks	108	108	110	110	1	1	3	3	5	5
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	109	109	94	94	2	2	4	4	52	52
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	110	110	1	1	3	3	5	5	17	17
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	94	94	2	2	4	4	52	52	18	18
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	1	1	3	3	5	5	17	17	61	61
Ballard High School Beavers	2	2	4	4	52	52	18	18	62	62
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1	3	3	5	5	17	17	61	61	31	31
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 2	4	4	52	52	18	18	62	62	32	32
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3	5	5	17	17	61	61	31	31	33	33
Garfield High School Bulldogs	52	52	18	18	62	62	32	32	35	35
Gig Harbor High School Tides 1	17	17	61	61	31	31	33	33	36	36
Gig Harbor High School Tides 2	18	18	62	62	32	32	35	35	38	38
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	61	61	31	31	33	33	36	36	108	108
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	62	62	32	32	35	35	38	38	109	109
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3	31	31	33	33	36	36	108	108	110	110
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	32	32	35	35	38	38	109	109	94	94
Olympia High School Bears 1	33	33	36	36	108	108	110	110	1	1
Olympia High School Bears 2	35	35	38	38	109	109	94	94	2	2
Olympia High School Bears 3	36	36	108	108	110	110	1	1	3	3
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	38	38	109	109	94	94	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	109	109	94	94	2	2	4	4	52	52
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	110	110	1	1	3	3	5	5	17	17
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	94	94	2	2	4	4	52	52	18	18
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	1	1	3	3	5	5	17	17	61	61
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	2	2	4	4	52	52	18	18	62	62
Ballard High School Beavers	3	3	5	5	17	17	61	61	31	31
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1	4	4	52	52	18	18	62	62	32	32
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 2	5	5	17	17	61	61	31	31	33	33
Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3	52	52	18	18	62	62	32	32	35	35
Garfield High School Bulldogs	17	17	61	61	31	31	33	33	36	36
Gig Harbor High School Tides 1	18	18	62	62	32	32	35	35	38	38
Gig Harbor High School Tides 2	61	61	31	31	33	33	36	36	108	108
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	62	62	32	32	35	35	38	38	109	109
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	31	31	33	33	36	36	108	108	110	110
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3	32	32	35	35	38	38	109	109	94	94
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	33	33	36	36	108	108	110	110	1	1
Olympia High School Bears 1	35	35	38	38	109	109	94	94	2	2
Olympia High School Bears 2	36	36	108	108	110	110	1	1	3	3
Olympia High School Bears 3	38	38	109	109	94	94	2	2	4	4
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	108	108	110	110	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Aeden Peterson '25 [1-10]	Allison Lehmann '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Fiorello Nicosia-Joachim '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Seahawks	Colton Hong '26 [1-10]	Michael Tabor '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Allison Lehmann '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Bainbridge High School	Evan Yeung '22	Jaya Wirth '23
Spartans 1	Adam Turloff '24	Maxwell Richards '24
Bainbridge High School	Ben Stone '23	Nolan Wiggins '23
Spartans 2	Carter Anderson '23	Joseph Tappen '25
Bainbridge High School	Adam Turloff '24	Luke Hattrup '24
Spartans 3	Ava Bergan '23	Nick Heinzelman '24
Bainbridge High School	Beto Torres '24 [1-10]	Sabrina Anderson '24 [1-6, 9-10] Nils Haas '25 [7-8]
Spartans 4	Alden Lemon '25 [1-2, 5-10] Stone Dewey '26 [3-4]	Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [1-4, 7-10] Stone Dewey '26 [5-6]
Ballard High School	Max Hanson '24	Zev Fort '09
Beavers	John Butler '23 [1-6] Hudson Lemke '09 [7-10]	No Show [1-6]
Bellingham High School	Max Day '26	Elliott Brigham '23
Bayhawks 1	Dylan Wynne '23	Lulu Haestad '24
Bellingham High School	Emmett Sampson '26	Britton Sanford '23
Bayhawks 2	Alder Macgillivray '22	Nate Hettick '23
Bellingham High School	Wyatt Mantha '22	Flora Booker '22
Bayhawks 3	Bryce Lutz '23	Luca Gillis '23
Garfield High School	Blake Bundesmann '23	Colin Olson '22
Bulldogs	Kairo Zimmerman Goad '25	Ella Barnard '20
Gig Harbor High School	Nico Konyk '25 [1-10]	Charlie Christ '26 [1-6] William Embick '26 [7-10]
Tides 1	Finn Deprez '25 [1-4] Matthew Embick '23 [5-10]	William Embick '26 [1-4] Charlie Christ '26 [5-10]
Gig Harbor High School	Bailey Rainbolt '26 [1-10]	Maddie Heitzman '25 [1-8] Sky Rainbolt '23 [9-10]
Tides 2	Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25 [1-2] Koji Kubo '22 [3-4] Nico Konyk '25 [5-10]	Sky Rainbolt '23 [1-2]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Everett Mcavoy '22	Marco Peron '23
Cardinals 1	Nolan Petrin '23	Catie Harding '22
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Addison Strear '24	Alexander Cherevatenko '25
Cardinals 2	Andrew Dolle '25	Annie Phillips '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Addison Strear '24	Alexander Cherevatenko '25
Cardinals 3	Andrew Dolle '25	Annie Phillips '25
Oak Harbor High School	Anna Servatius '24	Allison Bailey '23
Wildcats	Ben Servatius '22 [1-4, 9-10] Colin Byler '24 [5-8]	Colin Byler '24 [1-4, 9-10] Ben Servatius '22 [5-8]
Olympia High School	Sophia Hubbard '24	Zoe Green '25
Bears 1	Emy Kissick '25	No Show
Olympia High School	Peter Kelleher '22	Yuri Berebitsky '24
Bears 2	Finn Mcclure '23	Fiona Tang '25
Olympia High School	Levi Morse '24	No Show
Bears 3	Daniel Roberts '24	Hannah Fritz '22
Port Townsend High School	Zia Magill '24	Nadia Fisch '24
Redhawks	Hazel Windstorm '24	No Show

Conditions — 11/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.0 kn

avg · max 8.3 kn

Gusts to 14.6 kn

From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Central Catholic/Franklin/Lincoln OR: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.35 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Catholic/Franklin/Lincoln OR by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Central Catholic/Franklin/Lincoln OR: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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