| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 2–0 |
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 2–0 |
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 2–0 |
| 4 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 1–0 |
| 5 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 0–1 |
| 6 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks 1 | 0–2 |
| 6 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 0–2 |
| 6 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers 1 | 0–2 |
| 9 | |
Bainbridge High School | Blues | 2–0 |
| 9 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 2–0 |
| 11 |  |
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | 1–0 |
| 12 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 1–1 |
| 13 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 3 | 1–1 |
| 14 | |
Ballard High School | Beavers 2 | 0–1 |
| 15 | |
Bainbridge High School | Islanders | 0–2 |
| 15 | |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks 2 | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,121 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.259 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 2 | 2.30 school −0.50, home +0.05 | Thomas Buys / Ej Boilek 1.61 Ryan Metz / Kaitlin Mann 0.85 Anna Servatius / Allison Bailey | 50% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 1 | 5.68 school −0.31 | Danny Juan / Nati Garcia-Bompadre 2.11 Jacob Posner / Levi Bailey 2.42 Oliver Nairn / Calvin Hou 1.42 | 96% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 6 | Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 | 4 | -0.02 | Robert Mccarroll / Michael Tabor -0.09 Cassius Tossavainen / Sofia Dunton Tobias Norris Hawken / Kylee Lowry | 1% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.0 |
| 6 | Ballard High School Beavers 1 | 3 | 2.35 school −0.08 | Catie Vandervort / Simone Ford 1.52 John Butler / Sam Airhart Meimei Peterson / Phoebe Howe | 28% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 2.30 | 5.30 | 1–0 | 0.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 5.68 | 8.68 | 2–0 | 1.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| 6 | Ballard High School Beavers 1 | 2.35 | -0.65 | 0–2 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 6 | Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 | -0.02 | -3.02 | 0–1 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | Ballard High School Beavers 1 | 50% | upset | |
| 2 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 | 99% | ||
| 5 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | Ballard High School Beavers 1 | 93% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Cardinals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Wildcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 9 | |
Rough Riders | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 10 | |
Beavers 1 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 11 | |
Wildcats | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 12 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | ||
| 13 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 14 | |
Rough Riders | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 15 | |
Beavers 1 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | ||
| 16 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Wildcats | ||
| 17 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 18 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | ||
| 19 | |
Rough Riders | def. | |
Wildcats | ||
| 20 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Beavers 1 | ||
| 21 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | ||
| 22 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Wildcats | ||
| 23 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Beavers 1 | ||
| 24 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 25 | |
Seahawks 1 | def. | |
Wildcats | ||
| 26 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Beavers 1 | ||
| 27 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 28 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 29 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Blues | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bayhawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Blues | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bears 3 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Beavers 2 | ||
| 37 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Blues | ||
| 38 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Islanders | ||
| 39 | |
Seahawks 2 | def. | |
Beavers 2 | ||
| 40 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Bears 3 | ||
| 41 | |
Blues | def. | |
Islanders | ||
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Beavers 2 | ||
| 43 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Bears 3 | ||
| 44 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | ||
| 45 | |
Islanders | def. | |
Beavers 2 | ||
| 46 | |
Blues | def. | |
Bears 3 | ||
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | ||
| 48 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 49 | |
Beavers 2 | def. | |
Bears 3 | ||
| 50 | |
Islanders | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | ||
| 51 | |
Blues | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 52 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 53 | |
Bears 3 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | ||
| 54 | |
Beavers 2 | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 55 | |
Islanders | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 56 | |
Bayhawks | def. | |
Blues | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | Anna Servatius '24 Ryan Metz '22 Thomas Buys '22 |
Allison Bailey '23 Kaitlin Mann '23 Ej Boilek '22 |
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Danny Juan '23 Jacob Posner '25 Oliver Nairn '23 |
Nati Garcia-Bompadre '23 Levi Bailey '24 Calvin Hou '25 |
|
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | Koji Kubo '22 Teddy Gao '23 Zack Riccelli '23 |
Nolan Petrin '23 Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23 Charlotte Yesser '23 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Barrett Lhamon '22 Ben Stone '23 Gianna Dewey '23 |
Ava Bergan '23 Sabrina Anderson '24 Elliott Chalcraft '23 |
|
Anacortes High School | Seahawks 1 | Cassius Tossavainen '22 Robert Mccarroll '22 Tobias Norris Hawken '25 |
Sofia Dunton '23 Michael Tabor '25 Kylee Lowry '25 |
|
Ballard High School | Beavers 1 | Catie Vandervort '22 John Butler '23 Meimei Peterson '22 |
Simone Ford '24 Sam Airhart '23 Phoebe Howe '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
