Island Cup - SILVER

HostOak Harbor
Date03/07/2020
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bears 1	Bears 1	13	6	19
2	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	11	9	20
3	Bears 2	Bears 2	11	19	30
4	Ballard High School	Beavers	13	20	33
5	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	27	25	52
6	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	27	25	52
7	Mariners	Mariners	34	28	62
8	Lakeside School	Lions	13	60	73
9	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	43	31	74
10	Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	35	41	76
11	Kingston High School	Kraken	50	28	78
12	Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	45	42	87
13	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	44	50	94
14	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	57	50	107

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	3	1	2	5	11	Sam Hopper '20 Everett Mcavoy '22
Bears 2	Bears 2	4	3	3	1	11
Ballard High School	Beavers	1	2	6	4	13	Caroline Lochner '22 Kaia Armas '21
Lakeside School	Lions	2	4	4	3	13	Lucien Freemesser '23 Luka Moonen '23
Bears 1	Bears 1	5	5	1	2	13
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	6	8	7	6	27	Camryn Lee '24 Adam Smith '23
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	7	7	5	8	27	Odin Smith '21 Willow Bennett '21
Mariners	Mariners	9	6	10	9	34
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	8	9	11	7	35	Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-3] Cassius Tossavainen '22 [4] Colton Hong '26 [1-3] Lucas Cornelius '25 [4]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	10	11	8	14	43	Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-4] Allison Bailey '23 [1-2] Bailey Darnell '23 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	12	10	9	13	44	Nolan Loverich '22 [1-4] Logan Magallon '23 [1-2, 4] Mayson Brown '22 [3]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	11	12	12	10	45	Annika Dunton '21 [1-3] Elizabeth Koals '20 [4] Luc Diaz '21 [1-3] Bradyn Rueb '25 [4]
Kingston High School	Kraken	13	13	13	11	50	Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [1-3] Leo Taylor '25 [4] Jacob Misuda '23 [1-2] Leo Taylor '25 [3] Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [4]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	DNF	DNF	DNS	12	57	Kai Juvera '20 [1-3] Emelia Boilek '22 [4] Ariel Lefebvre '20 [1-2] Xavier Lefebvre '20 [3] Anna Servatius '24 [4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Bears 1	Bears 1	1	1	1	3	6
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	2	3	3	1	9	Catie Harding '22 Marco Peron '23
Bears 2	Bears 2	7	2	5	5	19
Ballard High School	Beavers	9	7	2	2	20	Matthew Lindburg '21 Finn Hanson '23
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	4	4	6	11	25	Reed Kregenow '22 Britton Sanford '23
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	6	11	4	4	25	Jenna Hiegel '21 [1-4] William Peters '25 [1-2] Willow Bennett '21 [3-4]
Mariners	Mariners	3	8	8	9	28
Kingston High School	Kraken	5	6	11	6	28	Shelby Chandler '25 Lena Bowen '23
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	10	5	9	7	31	Colin Byler '23 [1-4] Shelby Lang '23 [1-2] Allison Bailey '23 [3-4]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	8	9	12	12	41	Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-2] Annika Dunton '21 [3-4] Elizabeth Koals '20 [1-2] Chase Johnson '26 [3-4]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	11	10	13	8	42	Cassius Tossavainen '22 [1-4] Bradyn Rueb '25 [1-2] Kayla Strandberg '23 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	DNF	DNF	7	13	50	Sharkey Mckay '24 [1-2] Logan Magallon '23 [3-4] Anna Hovey '22 [1-2] Mayson Brown '22 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	DNF	DNF	10	10	50	Ryan Metz '20 [1-4] Joshua Odeneal '21 [1-2] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [3-4]
Lakeside School	Lions	DNS	DNS	RAF	RAF	60	Advik Eswaran '23 Everett Rendon '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Anacortes High School Seahawks 1	99	99	2	2
Anacortes High School Seahawks 2	100	100	8	8
Ballard High School Beavers	2	2	16	16
Gig Harbor High School Tides	8	8	164	164
Kingston High School Kraken	165	165	100	100
Lakeside School Lions	7	7	165	165
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals	16	16	44	44
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	164	164	45	45
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1	44	44	98	98
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2	45	45	9	9
Bears 1 Bears 1	98	98	62	62
Bears 2 Bears 2	9	9	7	7
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	62	62	55	55
Mariners Mariners	55	55	99	99

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Anacortes High School Seahawks 1	100	100	8	8
Anacortes High School Seahawks 2	2	2	16	16
Ballard High School Beavers	8	8	164	164
Gig Harbor High School Tides	16	16	44	44
Kingston High School Kraken	99	99	2	2
Lakeside School Lions	55	55	99	99
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals	164	164	45	45
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	44	44	98	98
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1	45	45	9	9
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2	98	98	62	62
Bears 1 Bears 1	9	9	7	7
Bears 2 Bears 2	62	62	55	55
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	7	7	165	165
Mariners Mariners	165	165	100	100

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-3] Cassius Tossavainen '22 [4]	Colton Hong '26 [1-3] Lucas Cornelius '25 [4]
Seahawks 1	Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-2] Annika Dunton '21 [3-4]	Elizabeth Koals '20 [1-2] Chase Johnson '26 [3-4]
Anacortes High School	Annika Dunton '21 [1-3] Elizabeth Koals '20 [4]	Luc Diaz '21 [1-3] Bradyn Rueb '25 [4]
Seahawks 2	Cassius Tossavainen '22 [1-4]	Bradyn Rueb '25 [1-2] Kayla Strandberg '23 [3-4]
Ballard High School	Caroline Lochner '22	Kaia Armas '21
Beavers	Matthew Lindburg '21	Finn Hanson '23
Gig Harbor High School	Camryn Lee '24	Adam Smith '23
Tides	Reed Kregenow '22	Britton Sanford '23
Kingston High School	Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [1-3] Leo Taylor '25 [4]	Jacob Misuda '23 [1-2] Leo Taylor '25 [3] Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [4]
Kraken	Shelby Chandler '25	Lena Bowen '23
Lakeside School	Lucien Freemesser '23	Luka Moonen '23
Lions	Advik Eswaran '23	Everett Rendon '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Sam Hopper '20	Everett Mcavoy '22
Cardinals	Catie Harding '22	Marco Peron '23
North Kitsap High School	Nolan Loverich '22 [1-4]	Logan Magallon '23 [1-2, 4] Mayson Brown '22 [3]
Dogfish	Sharkey Mckay '24 [1-2] Logan Magallon '23 [3-4]	Anna Hovey '22 [1-2] Mayson Brown '22 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School	Kai Juvera '20 [1-3] Emelia Boilek '22 [4]	Ariel Lefebvre '20 [1-2] Xavier Lefebvre '20 [3] Anna Servatius '24 [4]
Wildcats 1	Ryan Metz '20 [1-4]	Joshua Odeneal '21 [1-2] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School	Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-4]	Allison Bailey '23 [1-2] Bailey Darnell '23 [3-4]
Wildcats 2	Colin Byler '23 [1-4]	Shelby Lang '23 [1-2] Allison Bailey '23 [3-4]
Port Townsend High School	Odin Smith '21	Willow Bennett '21
Redhawks	Jenna Hiegel '21 [1-4]	William Peters '25 [1-2] Willow Bennett '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 03/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 81% · Pressure 1010.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1010.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · E 4 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Oak Harbor: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.35

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.61 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Oak Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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