| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,000 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 5 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.163 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 1 | 2.04 school −0.31, home +-0.02 | Thomas Buys / Andrew Buys 0.91 Ben Servatius / Liam Chapman 0.81 Ryan Metz / Ej Boilek | 85% | 5–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Bellingham High School Raiders | 2 | -0.19 school +0.11 | Wyatt Mantha / Flora ? Talia Clarke / Tess ? Alder ? / Keagan ? | 15% | 0–5 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oak Harbor High School | 2.04 | 5.04 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 2 | Bellingham High School | -0.19 | -3.19 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Buys | Oak Harbor High School | 0.91 | 3.91 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| Ben Servatius | Oak Harbor High School | 0.81 | 3.81 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| Ryan Metz | Oak Harbor High School | 0.52 | 3.52 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| Wyatt Mantha | Bellingham High School | -0.51 | -3.51 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Talia Clarke | Bellingham High School | -0.37 | -3.37 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Alder ? | Bellingham High School | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 3 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | Ben Servatius '22 Ryan Metz '22 Thomas Buys '22 |
Liam Chapman '22 Ej Boilek '22 Andrew Buys '21 |
|
Bellingham High School | Raiders | Alder ? '24 Talia Clarke '22 Wyatt Mantha '22 |
Keagan ? '24 Tess ? '24 Flora ? '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
