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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 9 7 16
2 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 16 20 36
3 Varsity 1 Varsity 1 Varsity 1 41 51 92
4 Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 39 59 98
5 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 61 41 102
6 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 70 33 103
7 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 50 54 104
8 Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 74 32 106
9 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 39 69 108
10 Raiders 2 Raiders 2 Raiders 2 39 72 111
11 Raiders 1 Raiders 1 Raiders 1 51 62 113
12 Varsity 2 Varsity 2 Varsity 2 64 58 122
13 Storm Storm Storm 70 61 131
14 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 80 62 142
15 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 51 96 147
16 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 81 73 154
17 Roughriders Roughriders Roughriders 89 90 179
18 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 111 90 201
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 9 Sam Bonauto '21
Ian Connolly '21
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 2 1 4 3 4 2 16 Jack Gibbons '20 [1-6]
Chance Bates '21 [1-4]
Rowan Frederickson '21 [5-6]
Raiders 2 Raiders 2 Raiders 2 3 8 5 8 7 8 39
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 5 4 7 13 3 7 39 Anna Wilke '19 [1-6]
Mary '21 [1-2]
Jenna Hiegel '21 [3-4]
Chance Bates '21 [5-6]
Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 7 6 2 12 9 3 39
Varsity 1 Varsity 1 Varsity 1 6 11 10 2 2 10 41
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 4 7 1 17 16 5 50
Raiders 1 Raiders 1 Raiders 1 10 12 6 14 5 4 51
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 11 5 11 7 11 6 51 Kira Blumhagen '21
Ella Barnard '20
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 9 10 12 10 8 12 61 Catie Vandervort '22
Varsity 2 Varsity 2 Varsity 2 15 3 9 11 17 9 64
Storm Storm Storm 12 16 13 5 13 11 70
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 16 15 14 6 6 13 70 Lilyan Coleman '21
Kyra Bowlby '19
Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 17 13 8 9 12 15 74 Cody Kmecheck '18
Jeffrey Scholfield '23
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 13 18 15 4 14 16 80 Joey Koval '20
Lindsey Graham '18
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 14 9 DSQ 15 10 14 81 Ben Servatius '22
Cooper Billiter '22
Roughriders Roughriders Roughriders 8 14 DSQ 16 15 17 89
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 18 17 DNS DNS DNS DNS 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 Ian Connolly '21
Sam Bonauto '21
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 3 2 2 7 4 2 20 Luca Gesinger '20 [1-6]
Rowan Frederickson '21 [1-2]
Mary '21 [3-4]
Jenna Hiegel '21 [5-6]
Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 1 7 10 4 3 7 32 Mathew Terry '23
Michael Jansson '19
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 8 4 3 3 9 6 33 Andre Alvarado '20 [1, 3, 5]
Cormac Burke '22 [2, 4, 6]
Cormac Burke '22 [1, 3, 5]
Andre Alvarado '20 [2, 4, 6]
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 4 3 6 8 10 10 41 Atlas Iverson '22
Coleman Barnes '23
Varsity 1 Varsity 1 Varsity 1 9 5 7 14 8 8 51
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 6 11 14 2 12 9 54
Varsity 2 Varsity 2 Varsity 2 11 9 13 6 5 14 58
Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 17 14 11 5 7 5 59
Storm Storm Storm 13 18 4 12 11 3 61
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 7 8 8 13 15 11 62 Lindsey Graham '18
Joey Koval '20
Raiders 1 Raiders 1 Raiders 1 14 6 9 15 2 16 62
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 18 10 5 10 13 13 69 Claire Jablonski '19
Raiders 2 Raiders 2 Raiders 2 5 13 12 11 14 17 72
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 10 15 DNS DNS 6 4 73 Thomas Buys '22
Liam Chapman '22
Roughriders Roughriders Roughriders 12 16 15 9 DNS DNS 90
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 15 12 17 17 17 12 90
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 16 17 16 16 16 15 96 Lukas Paige '21
Tian Marchello '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Raiders 1Raiders 1 Raiders 1104104
Raiders 2Raiders 2 Raiders 210410413191319
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars10410413191319
SeagullsSeagulls Seagulls13191319
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 144446666
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 26666
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1106106
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2106106107107
Olympic High School (WA)Olympic High School (WA) Trojans1061061071074444
RoughridersRoughriders Roughriders10710744446666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers106106
Raiders 1Raiders 1 Raiders 1106106107107
Raiders 2Raiders 2 Raiders 21061061071074444
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars10710744446666
SeagullsSeagulls Seagulls44446666
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams6666
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 113191319
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2104104
Olympic High School (WA)Olympic High School (WA) Trojans10410413191319
RoughridersRoughriders Roughriders10410413191319

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From N (359°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Seattle Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.68 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Seattle Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Seattle Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →