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NWISA Keelboat Invitational Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 16 16
2 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 17 17
3 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 19 19
4 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 19 19
5 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 25 25
6 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 28 28
7 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 31 31
8 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 31 31
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 2 6 BYE 2 2 1 16
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 2 BYE 7 2 17
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 5 3 1 3 4 BYE 19
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers RDG 5 3 4 1 3 19
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners BYE 7 5 1 3 5 25
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 3 BYE 6 RDG 5 4 28
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4 1 7 7 BYE 7 31
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 6 4 4 5 6 6 31

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 6 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Axel Stordahl '20Gig Harbor High School6/61.501.95+0.4492nd → 99th0.449%3.7 / 3.9
2Sam Bonauto '21Olympia High School6/61.621.52−0.1094th → 92nd0.057%3.8 / 3.7
3Casey Picket '20Lincoln High School - Portland, OR6/60.941.51+0.5873rd → 92nd0.737%4.2 / 4.7
3Erik Anderson '21Ballard High School6/61.381.60+0.2292nd → 94th0.157%4.2 / 4.1
5Emma Powell '22Sehome High School6/61.160.90−0.2683rd → 71st0.271%5.0 / 4.4
6Mary Darcy '21Port Townsend High School6/60.490.46−0.0437th → 36th0.047%5.2 / 5.3
7Thomas Buys '22Oak Harbor High School6/60.36-0.40−0.7629th → 1st0.958%5.8 / 5.6
8Miles Williams '20Roosevelt High School6/61.100.92−0.1878th → 72nd0.189%6.0 / 4.4

Conditions — 09/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From N (5°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1010.5 hPa Rain0.13 in

What this breeze does at CYC Seattle — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at CYC Seattle in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at CYC Seattle by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at CYC Seattle: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →