| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 5–5 |
| 6 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 3–7 |
| 7 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 2–7 |
| 9 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,898 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.344 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.58 ± 0.54: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orcas High School | 5.19 | 8.19 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 2 | Roosevelt High School | 3.71 | 5.02 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.30 | 0.6 | 40% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School | 2.48 | 2.76 | 3–4 | 2.7 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 7 | Port Townsend High School | 1.27 | 1.35 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 6 | Oak Harbor High School | 1.10 | 0.28 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 8 | Ballard High School | 2.27 | 0.40 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.87 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Wareham | Orcas High School | 1.95 | 4.95 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Ronan Kau | Orcas High School | 1.26 | 4.26 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Ronan Rankin | Orcas High School | 1.75 | 4.75 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Banning Jones | Bainbridge High School | 0.54 | 0.83 | 3–4 | 2.7 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Barrett Lhamon | Bainbridge High School | 1.04 | 1.32 | 3–4 | 2.7 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Jack Gibbons | Port Townsend High School | 0.49 | 0.58 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Mary Darcy | Port Townsend High School | 0.62 | 0.70 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Ben Servatius | Oak Harbor High School | 0.35 | -0.47 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Jenny Danielson | Oak Harbor High School | 0.36 | -0.46 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Thomas Buys | Oak Harbor High School | 0.60 | -0.22 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Maxwell Richards | Bainbridge High School | 0.98 | -0.10 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.08 | 0.3 | 91% |
| Sebestian Dougherty | Ballard High School | 0.44 | -1.42 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.87 | 1.3 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Redhawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Redhawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Vikings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Beavers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 33 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Mariners | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Vikings | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 43 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Orcas High School | Vikings | Dominick Wareham '19 Ronan Kau '19 Ronan Rankin '19 |
Millie Kau '19 Emma Freedman '19 Miette Woolworth '21 |
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Danny Juan '23 Lucien Freemesser '23 Sam Kimmel '20 |
Matthew Lindburg '21 Kaia Armas '21 Colin Baker '21 Isaac Wheeler '22 Abbie Chipps '21 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Banning Jones '20 Barrett Lhamon '22 Levi Moss '19 Maxwell Richards '24 |
Thomas Mcnulty '21 Grace Frei '22 Maxwell Richards '24 Evan Yeung '22 |
|
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | Colin Olson '22 | Aidan Kemper '19 |
|
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | Ben Servatius '22 Jenny Danielson '20 Thomas Buys '22 |
Catherine Wicker '20 Willa Weinsheimer '20 Kaitlin Mann '23 |
|
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | Chance Bates '21 Jack Gibbons '20 Mary Darcy '21 |
Jenna Hiegel '21 No Show Henry Stier '20 Odin Smith '21 |
|
Ballard High School | Beavers | Catie Vandervort '22 Isabelle Mcnabb '22 Sebestian Dougherty '22 |
Caroline Lochner '22 Kirsten Alderson '23 Johnny Vaughey '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
