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Bellingham Regional

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2 4 9 13
2 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 13 2 15
3 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 6 13 19
4 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 8 12 20
5 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 19 5 24
6 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 8 18 26
7 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1 15 13 28
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 6 26 32
9 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 21 13 34
10 Wolverines Wolverines Wolverines 23 12 35
11 Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 13 25 38
12 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 20 20 40
13 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 26 17 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2 3 1 4 Andrew Buys '21
Thomas Buys '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 2 4 6 Max Case '20
Tristan Neinaber '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 4 2 6 Natalie Serbousek '21
Natalie Aarstol '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 1 7 8 Emma Powell '21
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 5 3 8 Casey Malone '20
Giselle Yaude '20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 7 6 13 Jack Knowles '20
Forrest Rehberger '20
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 8 5 13 Madeline Roberts '21
Nesta Hill '21
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1 6 9 15 Liam Chapman '22
Ben Servatius '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 9 10 19 Ian Beatty '22
Fischer Brunzell '21
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 12 8 20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 10 11 21 Talia Clarke '22
Wyatt Mantha '22
Wolverines Wolverines Wolverines 11 12 23
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 13 13 26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 1 1 2 Morgan Seestrom '20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 2 3 5 Maya Gray '22
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2 3 6 9 Colin Byler '23
No Show
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 8 4 12 Bailey Logan '21
Leah Feller '22
Wolverines Wolverines Wolverines 10 2 12
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1 4 9 13 Kaitlin Mann '23
No Show
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 5 8 13 Talia Clarke '22
Wyatt Mantha '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 6 7 13 Leah Anders '22
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 7 10 17
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 13 5 18 Mike Rogge '22
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 9 11 20
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 11 DNF 25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 12 DSQ 26 Natalie Serbousek '21
Natalie Aarstol '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 11616
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 21717
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 35353
WolverinesWolverines Wolverines5151
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats 15555
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats 21515
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15050
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 25252
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 31414
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 41818
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm5454
Unregistered-NWISA 1Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 11010
Unregistered-NWISA 2Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 21919

Division B

Team1B2B
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 15050
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 25252
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 31414
WolverinesWolverines Wolverines1818
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats 15454
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats 21010
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 11919
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 21616
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 31717
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 45353
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm5151
Unregistered-NWISA 1Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 15555
Unregistered-NWISA 2Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 21515

Conditions — 10/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.3 kn
avg  ·  max 3.2 kn
Gusts to 10.3 kn
From NNW (345°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1015.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bellingham Bay: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellingham Bay by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Bellingham Bay: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →