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NWISA Girls Qualifier for PCISA Girls Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 26 22 48
2 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 23 32 55
3 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 31 26 57
4 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 39 26 65
5 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 35 60 95
6 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 56 44 100
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 4 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 4 3 23 Annie Buelt '20
Ann Li '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 2 3 2 3 4 1 1 3 4 26 Erin Pamplin '20
Autumn Vandehey '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 2 4 2 6 2 1 2 5 2 5 31 Emma Powell '21
Mira Anders '21
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 1 3 4 3 5 2 6 4 5 2 35 Casey Malone '20
Artemisia Wangler '21
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 5 5 6 4 4 6 4 3 1 1 39 Lindsay Campbell '20 [1-10]
Arianna Fiore '21 [1-2, 5-10]
Laruen Heinzelman '22 [3-4]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 56 Shea Kuligowski '19 [1-6]
Lilyan Coleman '21 [7-10]
Lilyan Coleman '21 [1-6]
Shea Kuligowski '19 [7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 5 3 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 22 Ciara Mcclanahan '19
Fiona Murphy '21
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 26 No Show [1-10]
Lola White '22 [1-3, 9-10]
Laruen Heinzelman '22 [4-8]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 5 1 1 3 2 4 1 4 2 3 26 Natalie Serbousek '21
Leila Jones '20
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 2 4 4 1 3 2 5 2 5 4 32 Joy Brennan '20
Caroline Hurley '20
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 4 3 5 5 5 5 3 5 4 5 44 Claire Jablonski '19 [1-6]
Annelisa Ayars '20 [7-10]
Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-6]
Claire Jablonski '19 [7-10]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60 Ashley Anshus '21
Giselle Yaude '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans119119121121123123119119121121
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars121121123123119119121121123123
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars118118120120122122118118120120
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears120120122122118118120120122122
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 1122122118118120120122122118118
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 2123123119119121121123123119119

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans120120122122118118120120122122
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars122122118118120120122122118118
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars119119121121123123119119121121
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears121121123123119119121121123123
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 1123123119119121121123123119119
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 2118118120120122122118118120120

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 15.2 kn
Gusts to 34.4 kn
From SW (225°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1011.4 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Central Kitsap: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Kitsap by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Central Kitsap, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →